CO: Biden +7 (Uni of CO Boulder)

[Redban]

Conducted December 01-18

https://www.colorado.edu/lab/aprl/sites/default/files/attached-files/2023_cpc_initial_release_1_29.pdf

Biden 47
Trump 40
Other 13

they polled Biden vs DeSantis instead of Biden vs Haley

[Fusternino]

Seems realistic?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Seems realistic?

As a floor for Biden, certainly.

[NOVA Green]

Looks like yet another example about how DEM base voters aren't too crazy about Biden right now, but will likely come back home once the existential choice comes in November.

Way too early to carve up the bird entrails from a UNI poll and start looking at the complexity of the DEM base in CO, but still strongly suspect that CO-'03 might well flip in '24 with 'Da Dumpster at the top of the ticket and Boebert fleeing over to CD-04 as a "Carpetbagger" with a +13 PUB PVI, but yet placing last in the Straw Poll!

I suspect her Beetlejuice introduction to the extended Metro Denver media market, might not have gone down too well?

Crazy scene in CD-04 when Boebert gets a standing applause about getting arrested, while most of the other PUB candidates raised their hands, like it's some kind of badge of honor.

Anyways...Biden should do quite well in CO in '24 vs Trump, and just like OR the state PUB Party is just too nuts for the CO-PUB Party to make any real gains within the state so long as Trump is the head of the ticket and Female Reproductive Rights are effectively banned in many states in the USA.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like yet another example about how DEM base voters aren't too crazy about Biden right now, but will likely come back home once the existential choice comes in November.

Way too early to carve up the bird entrails from a UNI poll and start looking at the complexity of the DEM base in CO, but still strongly suspect that CO-'03 might well flip in '24 with 'Da Dumpster at the top of the ticket and Boebert fleeing over to CD-04 as a "Carpetbagger" with a +13 PUB PVI, but yet placing last in the Straw Poll!

I suspect her Beetlejuice introduction to the extended Metro Denver media market, might not have gone down too well?

Crazy scene in CD-04 when Boebert gets a standing applause about getting arrested, while most of the other PUB candidates raised their hands, like it's some kind of badge of honor.

Anyways...Biden should do quite well in CO in '24 vs Trump, and just like OR the state PUB Party is just too nuts for the CO-PUB Party to make any real gains within the state so long as Trump is the head of the ticket and Female Reproductive Rights are effectively banned in many states in the USA.

Trends in CO are hostile to Republicans. The baseline has been getting more Dem favorable, consistently, since the late 1990s.

[pbrower2a]

This portends well for President iden this early.

Unless either should become unpresentable before Election Day, both are sure to get their bases. It's the non-base voters who make the difference, and we don't yet know who those aren't going to vote.  As in 2016  a Democrat can lose the Electoral College while winning Colorado.

Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin always look like over-ripe fruit about to drop intothe GOP orbit ... before the Democrats seal the votes of organized labor in early September.

[NOVA Green]

Also a bit weird that  it's a two week poll, plus right around the College Break plus Holiday season.

Regardless of being a Uni poll for the GE almost (11) months until the GE, well before PUB elections in IA and NH still toss it in the hopper since most Americans have long been resigned to a Biden-Trump matchup in '24.

[wbrocks67]

Colorado's polls actually underestimated Dems in 2022 despite being really good in 2020. Polis's approval here makes me think it's kind of a 'here's the floor for all the Dems' poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna surge near 50 in Rassy polls as we get to Nov

[DS0816]

2020 COLORADO
🔵 Joe Biden 55.40%
🔴 Donald Trump 41.90%
Margin: Democratic +13.50

A 2024 Colorado poll report of D+7, which is a 2020-to-2024 shift of R+6.50, is not out of line with what to expect with a 2020-to-2024 U.S. Popular Vote which goes from D+4.45 to R+3.

[heatcharger]

Colorado's polls actually underestimated Dems in 2022 despite being really good in 2020. Polis's approval here makes me think it's kind of a 'here's the floor for all the Dems' poll

On April Fool’s Day you can say a poll is underestimating Republicans.

[DS0816]

I estimate that, with a 2024 Republican pickup for U.S. President with a U.S. Popular Vote margin of R+3, two states will perform as follows:

• Virginia will end up between D+3 to D+6
• Colorado will perform between D+4 to D+7

Colorado, more often, will be slightly bluer than Virginia. With exception of 1992, they have carried the same in 18 of the last 19 U.S. presidential elections of 1948 to 2020. And they will make it 19 of 20 with once again voting the same here in 2024.