NH: Trump +16 (Suffolk/Boston Globe/NBC)

[Redban]

Ugh

Trump 50.4
Haley 33.8
Unsure 5.8
Desantis 5.2
Other 2.8
Refuse 2

https://bostonglobe.com/2024/01/17/metro/new-hampshire-republican-primary-tracking-poll-results/

The website above says:

“Each morning at 5 a.m., new polling data from Suffolk University, The Boston Globe, and NBC10 Boston will be released on this page.”

[jaichind]

 Ramaswamy has around 5% here so we need to wait a few days for the full impact of  Ramaswamy dropping out and actively backing Trump to be felt in the polls. 

[ralstonfan65]

I guess this is technically a decrease in Trump's Margin of 4 points.

The last UNH Poll was

Trump 46
Haley 26
Christie 12
DeSantis 8
Ramaswamy 2

So, changes are:

Trump +4
Haley +8
DeSantis -3

[2016]

Confirms that Haleys 3rd Place in Iowa really hurt her.

Also, Candidates dropping out helping Trump, not Haley.

Also confirms that she can't win Core Republican Voters & Conservatives like DeSantis said numerous times.

[Redban]

Confirms that Haleys 3rd Place in Iowa really hurt her.

Also, Candidates dropping out helping Trump, not Haley.

Also confirms that she can't win Core Republican Voters & Conservatives like DeSantis said numerous times.

Gaining 8% from their previous poll = “Confirms that Haley’s 3rd place in IA really hurt her” ??

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL at Rob!

We had a tie the other day, so even the primary polls produce vastly different results (although most got IA correct). This is just another sign that polls all too often are unreliable and should be treated with caution.

That said, I could easily imagine Trump by this margin. For sure he benefits from Vivek's exit.

[wbrocks67]

The thing here is what the electorate will be. This one has it nearly 50/50 in terms of GOP/Independents, which seems pretty high? And even given that, Haley is still down 16.

Trump wins Republicans, 64-21, but Haley wins Indies, 44-38. Not a great lead for her with Independents.

[PoliticsWatcher1]

Yeah, it isn’t going to be close. After the size of his win in Iowa, Trump is going to win by a big margin here too.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Haley's putting in a good show there, but losing NH by double digits isn't a path to nomination. Even if she does better than expected I think this contest will be over soon.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Probably will narrow somewhat.. but I'm not sure why some where led to believe NH would be a decisive haley win.

She has a evident ceiling.

[bilaps]

Probably will narrow somewhat.. but I'm not sure why some where led to believe NH would be a decisive haley win.

She has a evident ceiling.

I don't see how it narrows looking to crosstabs. If anything independents number could be inflated. Maybe if it isn't and independents grow to be 60% of electorate. But Haley would still need bigger margin among them.

[wbrocks67]

Probably will narrow somewhat.. but I'm not sure why some where led to believe NH would be a decisive haley win.

She has a evident ceiling.

I don't see how it narrows looking to crosstabs. If anything independents number could be inflated. Maybe if it isn't and independents grow to be 60% of electorate. But Haley would still need bigger margin among them.

Yeah, I think it's more likely that it doesn't narrow, given I could be wrong, but it seems unlikely that the electorate will be ~50% independents

[Mopsus]

The Republican presidential primary is over.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

If she loses by 10%+ then she and Rob need to drop out immediately. No need to waste everyone's time with this charade of a "primary."

[President Johnson]

Yeah, DeSandwich is done.

[ralstonfan65]

I'm by no means predicting that Haley wins New Hampshire but, as I said upthread, this poll shows her narrowing the gap by 4 points so let's compare apples to apples.

[wbrocks67]

I'm by no means predicting that Haley wins New Hampshire but, as I said upthread, this poll shows her narrowing the gap by 4 points so let's compare apples to apples.

True, but there's only so much left to go around at this point. She could've gained all of Christie's 12% but only gained 8%. Trump still bumped himself up another 4% at the same time. Not much left for her to get.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Either ARG is onto something few others are, or Haley was always overrated.