If Biden wins, does he also get more than 50%?

[President Johnson]

I would be inclined to say yes. Trump has around 45-46% of the vote locked up, give or take a point. While Trump's advantage in the Electoral College seems to have shrunk somewhat (at least assumed by some), I would still argue to closer Biden gets to or over 50%, the more likely he is the win. Of course he would lose with 50% or win with 49%, depending on how close Trump comes.

If Biden actually won more than 50% again, it would be noteable feat as he would only be the third Democrat since the Civil War to win an absolutely majority twice. The others being Franklin Roosevelt and Barack Obama.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes a 304 map is 52/47, he's at 49 in Marist and 46/53 in Rassy that is 303 not 226

Redban, Riverwalk, Hollywood and MT Treasure thinks Biden will lose, WE HAVEN'T VOTED YET AND TRUMP LEADS ARE MOE

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

No. Biden's most likely path to victory is something like 48-46, winning WI/MI/PA and losing AZ/GA.

[seskoog]

I don’t know. I could see him winning the Pv 49-45 and winning the election that way. Hillary would have won in 2016 if she got 48.6% of the PV.

[Redban]

If Biden wins 50%, and Trump wins 46-47% - you’re saying third parties combine for only 3-4%, which isn’t viable this cycle. RFK Jf is making a big push for ballot access, and there is Stein + Liberatians too. RFK Jr also has a good chance of making the debate stage. And both Trump and Biden are very unpopular

Most likely, third parties get minimum 10% (which is a conservative estimate). For Biden to get 50%, he would have to beat Trump by 10%, 50-40%, which won’t happen

Mostly likely, Biden or Trump win with 44-46% of the vote

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I don't think anyone gets 50% this cycle. I suspect RFK gets 3-5% at least nationally and others will get votes too. I think max we'll see 48%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users that are D not Conserv need to have Faith in Voting not listen to Redban who likesTrump trusting Elon Musk Harris X biased polls Leger has Biden +4


That's not Harris X Elon Musk Trump 8 because Biden Approvals aren't 39 im Gallup they are 47/53 in Rassy and 49 in Marist

[Xing]

I don’t think the third party share goes up that much, so I think a Biden win (in the EC) most likely involves him getting over 50%. Maybe he could just squeak by in the EC and win the PV 49-47, but anything less than that and Trump probably wins the EC.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I feel like he has to in order to win.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'd say conditional on him winning he's more likely than not getting above 50%.

[SnowLabrador]

"If pigs flew, what color would their wings be?"

[Senator Incitatus]

I don’t see how he does. He would have to pick up the vast majority of the present third party vote, but these people are more likely to stay home than vote Biden right now, and there are even a chunk of Kennedy-Trump leaners. Things could change dramatically, but I’d put the odds quite low (which isn’t to say his odds of winning are nearly as low).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are 5 M more Ds as a rule than Rs

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

With the presence of Kennedy on the ballot in 45 states or more, and others like the Green Party and the Libertarians and maybe West and No Labels - it looks unlikely that Biden or Trump can get 50 percent or more.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course he does

[Sir Mohamed]

Probably, though current polling (even though it should ignored at this stage) suggests there could be a higher share of 3rd votes. Possibly 2016 levels or beyond that. As Trump's advantage in the EC supposedly shrunk a little, Biden could end up winning with something like 48.8% vs. 46.3%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably, though current polling (even though it should ignored at this stage) suggests there could be a higher share of 3rd votes. Possibly 2016 levels or beyond that. As Trump's advantage in the EC supposedly shrunk a little, Biden could end up winning with something like 48.8% vs. 46.3%.

Biden win 50 with Jorgensen if it's a duplicate EC map Biden still wins 50/45 3

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

No. Biden's most likely path to victory is something like 48-46, winning WI/MI/PA and losing AZ/GA.

Or he could lose PA and win FL, right riverwalk? /s

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

"If pigs flew, what color would their wings be?"

Man, when I'm feeling down about Biden's chances, all I have to do is read a snowlabrador post and it makes me feel better about them /s

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump lead is only MOE our Turnout is higher than 2016 in Prez eDays we got 63/60 M in 2016/ 22 that was a Midterm we are expecting to reach at least 70 M and Rs 6o/65 M that's why the comparison with RFK to Gary Johnson isn't compared because we are gonna get more turnout than 2016. Biden won with 3 votes going to Jorgensen and RFK isn't on the ballot yet on all 50 states. That's why Harris X is off, it takes 20 votes to Trump

I think it will be a 70 M D vote not 80 or 60 M but we don't know how much Rs will get between 62/65M, if it's a 70/62 M Eday yeah Biden gets 50 and that erases any 4 MOE lead by Trump, that's why polls are meaningless for Trump he average 3 MOE with 10 months left

If it's 70/62 M we win TX and FL, polls also have Trump leading Biden 34/21 with Latino that's Silly, if it's 65/60 M we just won 303 but 50 percentage pts