Which Dem-held Florida house seats flip this decade?

[Tekken_Guy]

Which Democrat-held Florida house seats flip this decade?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Probably none.

[UncleSam]

None in their current iterations. If Florida keeps shifting right then DeSantis and co. will find some excuse to re-district mid decade in order to draw out one or two more Dems. There were like five D-held Florida seats that were within 15 points so if the state as a whole keeps trending right I highly doubt they’ll all stay blue throughout the decade.

If Florida trends back though I could see these all holding for the whole decade, while the R legislature just sits on the current map to hang on to their current seats.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

All of them will hold, unless Jared Moskowitz runs for governor in 2026 in a Biden midterm, and there is another red tsunami.

[Brittain33]

None in their current iterations. If Florida keeps shifting right then DeSantis and co. will find some excuse to re-district mid decade in order to draw out one or two more Dems. There were like five D-held Florida seats that were within 15 points so if the state as a whole keeps trending right I highly doubt they’ll all stay blue throughout the decade.

If Florida trends back though I could see these all holding for the whole decade, while the R legislature just sits on the current map to hang on to their current seats.

Do you think Florida is going to shift right from its 2022 baseline? That election was a disaster for Dems and even without the gerrymander, seats like FL-7 and FL-13 might have flipped R.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Probably none.

Yeah, if they didn't flip during the '22 red wave, I have a hard time seeing any of them switching, unless the Republicans experience an even bigger victory sometime before 2030.

[UncleSam]

None in their current iterations. If Florida keeps shifting right then DeSantis and co. will find some excuse to re-district mid decade in order to draw out one or two more Dems. There were like five D-held Florida seats that were within 15 points so if the state as a whole keeps trending right I highly doubt they’ll all stay blue throughout the decade.

If Florida trends back though I could see these all holding for the whole decade, while the R legislature just sits on the current map to hang on to their current seats.

Do you think Florida is going to shift right from its 2022 baseline? That election was a disaster for Dems and even without the gerrymander, seats like FL-7 and FL-13 might have flipped R.

No idea, I do think it’s a possibility though. Generally trends there favor Rs and without significant monetary investment in EV GOTV operations Dems will struggle there. When you consider that Dems really shouldn’t be investing in FL at this point I could see it becoming a solidly R state by the end of the decade.

Again though, I don’t know. Trends are always hard to predict.