Emerson: Colorado (Biden +4) and Minnesota (Biden +2)

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

While Biden +4 is almost certainly too Trump friendly in Colorado, I do think it will be a little closer than last time (ie Biden +12). There doesn't seem to be much signs of continued leftward shift outside the ski resorts. Trump will at least flip Pueblo County back.

This is not true at all - did you see the results last year? If anything, the likelihood is just as high that Biden increases on his 2020 win #.

Entertaining Biden +4 in CO is just delusional.

They were quite underwhelming in Colorado compared to other states. Every battleground state Senate incumbent except for CCM outperformed Biden's numbers by more than Bennet did. The governors race means as little as Beshear's numbers this November means for Kentucky.

Yes, Colorado showed no signs of reverting, but it also showed no signs of moving even further left.

Ummm... Polis winning by like 20% and the Dem supermajority in the legislature?

Beshear will probably win Kentucky - it's pretty normal for incumbent governors to outperform a lot. Incumbent governor benchmarks are usually not a good indicator - I'm sure Youngkin would win comfortably if he were up for reelection too. The Senate race is probably a better indicator, and it showed nothing special relative to the rest of the nation.

Democrats have a supermajority in the Nevada assembly too I think.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

While Biden +4 is almost certainly too Trump friendly in Colorado, I do think it will be a little closer than last time (ie Biden +12). There doesn't seem to be much signs of continued leftward shift outside the ski resorts. Trump will at least flip Pueblo County back.

This is not true at all - did you see the results last year? If anything, the likelihood is just as high that Biden increases on his 2020 win #.

Entertaining Biden +4 in CO is just delusional.

They were quite underwhelming in Colorado compared to other states. Every battleground state Senate incumbent except for CCM outperformed Biden's numbers by more than Bennet did. The governors race means as little as Beshear's numbers this November means for Kentucky.

Wow; now we're acting as if Bennett's +15 win last year was just meh? That's certainly a new one.

Biden won by 13.5, so Bennet's +14.2 (in an environment where Democratic incumbents generally outperformed Biden) is a sign that Biden likely won't gain further from 13.5.

Odea was hyped as a god tier candidate who would massively appeal to the voters Trump lost. He did worse than Trump. Seriously, get off your high horse man! No, it does not make people hackish and delusional to not believe that Colorado is not competitive.

I don't believe Colorado will be competitive, but I just don't believe it'll automatically shift further to Biden +20 as some believe. None of the polls are indicating this, nor is there any reason to believe so based on 2022.

[wbrocks67]

While Biden +4 is almost certainly too Trump friendly in Colorado, I do think it will be a little closer than last time (ie Biden +12). There doesn't seem to be much signs of continued leftward shift outside the ski resorts. Trump will at least flip Pueblo County back.

This is not true at all - did you see the results last year? If anything, the likelihood is just as high that Biden increases on his 2020 win #.

Entertaining Biden +4 in CO is just delusional.

They were quite underwhelming in Colorado compared to other states. Every battleground state Senate incumbent except for CCM outperformed Biden's numbers by more than Bennet did. The governors race means as little as Beshear's numbers this November means for Kentucky.

Wow; now we're acting as if Bennett's +15 win last year was just meh? That's certainly a new one.

Biden won by 13.5, so Bennet's +14.2 (in an environment where Democratic incumbents generally outperformed Biden) is a sign that Biden likely won't gain further from 13.5.

Odea was hyped as a god tier candidate who would massively appeal to the voters Trump lost. He did worse than Trump. Seriously, get off your high horse man! No, it does not make people hackish and delusional to not believe that Colorado is not competitive.

I don't believe Colorado will be competitive, but I just don't believe it'll automatically shift further to Biden +20 as some believe. None of the polls are indicating this, nor is there any reason to believe so based on 2022.

Well this is literally the only Colorado poll we've gotten in months, so not much to base that on, and I would venture to say the 2022 results *DO* indicate that Colorado is likely to move even further left, given that Michael Bennet outperformed Biden's figures in what was a much more GOP year than 2020.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

While Biden +4 is almost certainly too Trump friendly in Colorado, I do think it will be a little closer than last time (ie Biden +12). There doesn't seem to be much signs of continued leftward shift outside the ski resorts. Trump will at least flip Pueblo County back.

This is not true at all - did you see the results last year? If anything, the likelihood is just as high that Biden increases on his 2020 win #.

Entertaining Biden +4 in CO is just delusional.

They were quite underwhelming in Colorado compared to other states. Every battleground state Senate incumbent except for CCM outperformed Biden's numbers by more than Bennet did. The governors race means as little as Beshear's numbers this November means for Kentucky.

Wow; now we're acting as if Bennett's +15 win last year was just meh? That's certainly a new one.

Biden won by 13.5, so Bennet's +14.2 (in an environment where Democratic incumbents generally outperformed Biden) is a sign that Biden likely won't gain further from 13.5.

Odea was hyped as a god tier candidate who would massively appeal to the voters Trump lost. He did worse than Trump. Seriously, get off your high horse man! No, it does not make people hackish and delusional to not believe that Colorado is not competitive.

I don't believe Colorado will be competitive, but I just don't believe it'll automatically shift further to Biden +20 as some believe. None of the polls are indicating this, nor is there any reason to believe so based on 2022.

Yes there is? odea was a strong candidate, possible one of the strongest in the whole cycle and did worse than Donald Trump, who despite what you insist is actually a terrible candidate and the reason why the Presidential race is still winnable for Democrats.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

While Biden +4 is almost certainly too Trump friendly in Colorado, I do think it will be a little closer than last time (ie Biden +12). There doesn't seem to be much signs of continued leftward shift outside the ski resorts. Trump will at least flip Pueblo County back.

This is not true at all - did you see the results last year? If anything, the likelihood is just as high that Biden increases on his 2020 win #.

Entertaining Biden +4 in CO is just delusional.

They were quite underwhelming in Colorado compared to other states. Every battleground state Senate incumbent except for CCM outperformed Biden's numbers by more than Bennet did. The governors race means as little as Beshear's numbers this November means for Kentucky.

Wow; now we're acting as if Bennett's +15 win last year was just meh? That's certainly a new one.

Biden won by 13.5, so Bennet's +14.2 (in an environment where Democratic incumbents generally outperformed Biden) is a sign that Biden likely won't gain further from 13.5.

Odea was hyped as a god tier candidate who would massively appeal to the voters Trump lost. He did worse than Trump. Seriously, get off your high horse man! No, it does not make people hackish and delusional to not believe that Colorado is not competitive.

I don't believe Colorado will be competitive, but I just don't believe it'll automatically shift further to Biden +20 as some believe. None of the polls are indicating this, nor is there any reason to believe so based on 2022.

Well this is literally the only Colorado poll we've gotten in months, so not much to base that on, and I would venture to say the 2022 results *DO* indicate that Colorado is likely to move even further left, given that Michael Bennet outperformed Biden's figures in what was a much more GOP year than 2020.

Kelly, Warnock, and Fetterman all outperformed by more than Bennet did. Colorado showed nothing special; maybe it will shift left if Biden wins comfortably, but there's scant evidence it's continuing to trend left relative to the rest of the nation.

Also, here are the polls done:


There doesn't seem to be any sign of Biden +20.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

While Biden +4 is almost certainly too Trump friendly in Colorado, I do think it will be a little closer than last time (ie Biden +12). There doesn't seem to be much signs of continued leftward shift outside the ski resorts. Trump will at least flip Pueblo County back.

This is not true at all - did you see the results last year? If anything, the likelihood is just as high that Biden increases on his 2020 win #.

Entertaining Biden +4 in CO is just delusional.

They were quite underwhelming in Colorado compared to other states. Every battleground state Senate incumbent except for CCM outperformed Biden's numbers by more than Bennet did. The governors race means as little as Beshear's numbers this November means for Kentucky.

Wow; now we're acting as if Bennett's +15 win last year was just meh? That's certainly a new one.

Biden won by 13.5, so Bennet's +14.2 (in an environment where Democratic incumbents generally outperformed Biden) is a sign that Biden likely won't gain further from 13.5.

Odea was hyped as a god tier candidate who would massively appeal to the voters Trump lost. He did worse than Trump. Seriously, get off your high horse man! No, it does not make people hackish and delusional to not believe that Colorado is not competitive.

I don't believe Colorado will be competitive, but I just don't believe it'll automatically shift further to Biden +20 as some believe. None of the polls are indicating this, nor is there any reason to believe so based on 2022.

Yes there is? odea was a strong candidate, possible one of the strongest in the whole cycle and did worse than Donald Trump, who despite what you insist is actually a terrible candidate and the reason why the Presidential race is still winnable for Democrats.

Maybe your perception of strong/weak candidate is warped, as I'm sure you underestimated Trump in 2016/2020 too. O'Dea was an okay candidate, but nothing special, probably comparable to Laxalt. Being anti-Trump doesn't automatically make you a strong candidate; especially since he was a first-time candidate with no political experience.

[wbrocks67]

While Biden +4 is almost certainly too Trump friendly in Colorado, I do think it will be a little closer than last time (ie Biden +12). There doesn't seem to be much signs of continued leftward shift outside the ski resorts. Trump will at least flip Pueblo County back.

This is not true at all - did you see the results last year? If anything, the likelihood is just as high that Biden increases on his 2020 win #.

Entertaining Biden +4 in CO is just delusional.

They were quite underwhelming in Colorado compared to other states. Every battleground state Senate incumbent except for CCM outperformed Biden's numbers by more than Bennet did. The governors race means as little as Beshear's numbers this November means for Kentucky.

Wow; now we're acting as if Bennett's +15 win last year was just meh? That's certainly a new one.

Biden won by 13.5, so Bennet's +14.2 (in an environment where Democratic incumbents generally outperformed Biden) is a sign that Biden likely won't gain further from 13.5.

Odea was hyped as a god tier candidate who would massively appeal to the voters Trump lost. He did worse than Trump. Seriously, get off your high horse man! No, it does not make people hackish and delusional to not believe that Colorado is not competitive.

I don't believe Colorado will be competitive, but I just don't believe it'll automatically shift further to Biden +20 as some believe. None of the polls are indicating this, nor is there any reason to believe so based on 2022.

Well this is literally the only Colorado poll we've gotten in months, so not much to base that on, and I would venture to say the 2022 results *DO* indicate that Colorado is likely to move even further left, given that Michael Bennet outperformed Biden's figures in what was a much more GOP year than 2020.

Kelly, Warnock, and Fetterman all outperformed by more than Bennet did. Colorado showed nothing special; maybe it will shift left if Biden wins comfortably, but there's scant evidence it's continuing to trend left relative to the rest of the nation.

Also, here are the polls done:


There doesn't seem to be any sign of Biden +20.

Oh my god. The three pollsters are literally POS (DeSantis), McLaughlin (R), and Emerson. I can't believe we're actually debating whether or not Colorado 'showed anything special' last year when Polis won by nearly 20% and Bennett won by 15. This is ridiculous.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

While Biden +4 is almost certainly too Trump friendly in Colorado, I do think it will be a little closer than last time (ie Biden +12). There doesn't seem to be much signs of continued leftward shift outside the ski resorts. Trump will at least flip Pueblo County back.

This is not true at all - did you see the results last year? If anything, the likelihood is just as high that Biden increases on his 2020 win #.

Entertaining Biden +4 in CO is just delusional.

They were quite underwhelming in Colorado compared to other states. Every battleground state Senate incumbent except for CCM outperformed Biden's numbers by more than Bennet did. The governors race means as little as Beshear's numbers this November means for Kentucky.

Wow; now we're acting as if Bennett's +15 win last year was just meh? That's certainly a new one.

Biden won by 13.5, so Bennet's +14.2 (in an environment where Democratic incumbents generally outperformed Biden) is a sign that Biden likely won't gain further from 13.5.

Odea was hyped as a god tier candidate who would massively appeal to the voters Trump lost. He did worse than Trump. Seriously, get off your high horse man! No, it does not make people hackish and delusional to not believe that Colorado is not competitive.

I don't believe Colorado will be competitive, but I just don't believe it'll automatically shift further to Biden +20 as some believe. None of the polls are indicating this, nor is there any reason to believe so based on 2022.

Well this is literally the only Colorado poll we've gotten in months, so not much to base that on, and I would venture to say the 2022 results *DO* indicate that Colorado is likely to move even further left, given that Michael Bennet outperformed Biden's figures in what was a much more GOP year than 2020.

Kelly, Warnock, and Fetterman all outperformed by more than Bennet did. Colorado showed nothing special; maybe it will shift left if Biden wins comfortably, but there's scant evidence it's continuing to trend left relative to the rest of the nation.

Also, here are the polls done:


There doesn't seem to be any sign of Biden +20.

Oh my god. The three pollsters are literally POS (DeSantis), McLaughlin (R), and Emerson. I can't believe we're actually debating whether or not Colorado 'showed anything special' last year when Polis won by nearly 20% and Bennett won by 15. This is ridiculous.

I'm saying it showed nothing special relative to the rest of the nation. Bennet outperformed Biden by 0.7, Kelly by 4.5, Fetterman by 3.7, and Warnock by 0.8.

[Spectator]

I can buy Trump getting 38% in Colorado.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Oh my God! F*** off, Emerson!

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

By the way I made the same mistake as a lot of posters here in 2017, that I thought MN/ME/NH were going to be Republican states soon because Trump improved so much from Romney and came close to flipping them. Hell, Maine showed a 12 point shift right from 2012 to 2016, how could it swing left in 2020? A swing from one cycle to another doesn't automatically mean the same sized or direction swing will take place the following cycle; instead the individual evidence needs to be examined. Usually, the large swing area isn't even the same each time so we need to apply some critical thinking than actually run a linear extrapolation (in 2012 -> 2016 it was working class midwestern rural areas, in 2016 -> 2020 it was Hispanics, and in 2020 -> 2024 it will probably be the black belt).

I can buy Trump getting 38% in Colorado.

Something like 50-38 isn't impossible. Colorado historically has a high third party share (2016 was 48-43).

[Skill and Chance]

Emerson is basically showing Republican 2008 almost everywhere they have polled, but with some Biden resilience in the Rust Belt states.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Emerson is basically showing Republican 2008 almost everywhere they have polled, but with some Biden resilience in the Rust Belt states.

Biden's resilient in Florida too in Emerson. Arizona hasn't showed a large shift right in Emerson polling (about a 2 point shift), while Georgia shows a more normal 5 point shift right.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden will win MN and CO close to double digits these numbers are too low 52/46, Trump is an indicted felon thats why I put Safe D in FL, along with GA, NC, VA, TX, AZ, CO, CA, NM and NV the TREND IS D

[DS0816]

When the Democrats win a U.S. presidential election, they tend to carry New Hampshire and Minnesota, which vote alike, by about +2 and +3 above national margin.

Virginia and Colorado, which also vote alike, are basically +6 and +7 partisan advantage, compared to national margins, for the Democrats.

The numbers Joe Biden put up, with his 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency of the United States, are the minimum I would expect to see from a prevailing member of his party.

[President Johnson]

Biden +4 in Colorado is all the proof you need that these polls are not to be taken seriously. I know I'm not contributing much with such a statement, but what else is there to say? If you think Biden is struggling to get 40% in Colorado then you don't understand the electorate.

He is simultaneously leading by one in Michigan

Agreed, and there was another poll a few short weeks ago with Biden ahead in New Hampshire by twelve. The polls are all over the place and kind of messy.

The undecided and someone else numbers are kind of annoying, though shows that there's at least a decent segment of the electorate right now with a low appetite for a rematch.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Man, we are seeing some real weird polls so far this election cycle.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Man, we are seeing some real weird polls so far this election cycle.

Not really, there exists a margin of error. Biden could actually be up 11 in Colorado and Trump only up 2 in Pennsylvania after accounting for the margin of error, which seems pretty reasonable to me.

[BG-NY]

Again, remove "someone else" from the polling questions. It gets you such worthless results as this one.

Can we stop this worthless comment on every poll?

It's October 2023. It's too early to even assume it will be a two-person race. (Perot announced in February 1992, partly as a result of "other" polling well.) It's also too early to say we know which two people it will be—though we're more certain than any time since 2000, we also have two elderly, unpopular candidates who are vulnerable to health concerns or in Trump's case, a surprise loss.

Most importantly, "someone else" captures present voter dissatisfaction which either candidate will have the opportunity to overcome. Polling is designed to give us an accurate picture of the race today, and it is accurate to say about a quarter of voters currently need convincing to vote for either Trump or Biden. That convincing will probably happen even if only through attrition; it is called a campaign, and we haven't entered it yet. If you want to predict the campaign to come based on expected non-polling factors, do it yourself—stop trying to forge polling to do it for you.

Worst case scenario for Biden is a 3rd party vote share similar to 2016 levels.

Historically speaking, if Biden is in trouble, 2016 is about the best case scenario for the third party vote. Presidents who become underdogs for re-election almost always have a strong independent challenger or two. Trump, Hoover, and Gerald Ford, an incumbent by technicality, are the exceptions.

Based on current polling, I'm guessing around 5–10% vote for neither Trump nor Biden.

Great post. The wishcasting is absolutely pathetic.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Man, we are seeing some real weird polls so far this election cycle.

Not really, there exists a margin of error. Biden could actually be up 11 in Colorado and Trump only up 2 in Pennsylvania after accounting for the margin of error, which seems pretty reasonable to me.

I'm thinking of all of thse Emerson polls combined. No one believes Biden will only get 17% of the vote in South Dakota, for example.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Man, we are seeing some real weird polls so far this election cycle.

Not really, there exists a margin of error. Biden could actually be up 11 in Colorado and Trump only up 2 in Pennsylvania after accounting for the margin of error, which seems pretty reasonable to me.

This would also mean that Biden is up 8 in Michigan and 5 in Wisconsin btw with trump only being up 3 in iowa and 9 in Kansas

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Man, we are seeing some real weird polls so far this election cycle.

Not really, there exists a margin of error. Biden could actually be up 11 in Colorado and Trump only up 2 in Pennsylvania after accounting for the margin of error, which seems pretty reasonable to me.

This would also mean that Biden is up 8 in Michigan and 5 in Wisconsin btw with trump only being up 3 in iowa and 9 in Kansas

The margin of error could go both ways in each individual poll.

[pantsaregood]

The CO poll is peak memerson.

[jamestroll]

What I do not understand is this: why is there a significant segment of Republicans that think Colorado, of all places, will make a near double digit swing to the GOP in 2014? WEIRD.

Migration PATTERNS are not friendly to the GOP at all.

I remember reading a REDDIT thread of conservatives all bashing Sabato for rating Colorado as Safe Dem in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isn't winning CO by only 4 because Trump isn't gonna be on the ballot  and MN isn't 2 Tina Smith won in 20 by 6 52/46