Why'd the GOP legislature throw so much of Montgomery Co. into PA-6? Did they think Gerlach would regularly get the rest of the district to outvote it, or did they thick it would go along with Gerlach? This district looks like a mismatch of itself, one part versus the other.
It would be better in the 6th. The GOP was also looking at winning PA 13, too, and Gerlach was supposed to be an easy win in his district so the giving him the tougher Montco areas made sense.
I don't know how the GOP thought they could ever get PA-13 under its current lines. It is the most Democratic of the suburban Philly districts and gave John Kerry 56% of the vote.
The party registration is split with the GOP having a slight edge. The GOP thought they'd be able to win over the more moderate Dems in the NE Philly part of the district (my area) but that did work out. Moderate Republicans in the Montco area of the district supported Kerry so that explains the lopsided Presidential result.
Why is it that Allyson Schwartz was able to do much better in an open-seat race in PA-13 in 2004 than Joe Hoeffel was, against the same candidate? Hoeffel won 51%-47% in 2004 while Schwartz won by about 56%-41%. Why did this happen?
Hoeffel had to run in a bad year for the Dems while Schwartz ran in a good year. The fact that she was running in a Presidential election year was a key factor. Look at the results...
Kerry - 56%
Bush - 44%
Schwartz - 56%
Brown - 41%
Others - 3%
Straight ticket voting clearly helped Schwartz.
Hoeffel is a bad candidate while Schwartz is a much better campaigner. Melissa Brown - who ran against Hoeffel in 2002 and Schwartz in 2004 - ran a great campaign in 2002 but a absolutely horrible campaign in 2004.
