States flipping since the Bush years - Charisma? Turnout? Persuasion? People Moving/Dying?

[Person Man]

The states I am talking about are-

The 11 states that come to mind for me-
Missouri  and Arkansas(Tossup to Solid-R between 1996 and 2012)
West Virginia (Solid D to Solid R 1996 and 2008)
Virginia (Likely R to Likely D 2004 to 2020)
Florida (Tossup to Likely R 2012 to 2020)
Georgia (Safe R to Tossup 2004-2020)
North Carolina (Safe R to Tossup 2004-2012)
Colorado (Likely R to Safe D 2004 to 2020)
Iowa (Lean D to Safe R 2012 -2016)
Ohio (Tossup to Safe R 2012- 2016)
Arizona (Likely R to Tossup 2012 to 2020)

I think that is all the big one we talk about. Why did these happen?

Did one party have candidates that really made them reevaluate their allegiances or simply had better social skills than their opponents?

Was it that the local institutions made sure to fill up busses on election day? Was one side better at registration drives and getting people to the polls?

Beyond charisma, did one party, at least on a certain state basis, simply "win" the debate?

Was it that old people died or moved away or got replaced by young people and transplants?

[robocop]

With regards to Arkansas, I do wonder if Clinton being candidate helped him get a lot of the vote there otherwise it would more likely have bean lean R?

[One Term Floridian]

With regards to Arkansas, I do wonder if Clinton being candidate helped him get a lot of the vote there otherwise it would more likely have bean lean R?

Bill Clinton was truly the last Democratic nominee who could get enough rural whites in the South and Appalachia to support the ticket. In terms of priorities/wedge issues, both the voters and the party had been moving in opposite directions since at least the 1970s. Even sacrificial lamb Bob Dole did decent against Clinton in 1996 all things considered, but Appalachia still stood for Clinton.

[Vice President Christian Man]

I think states such as CO/VA/GA is mainly due to the suburbs moving left, although in other cases (AR/WV/MO) it has more to do with disagreements with social liberalism. In some cases particularly in WV, union workers moving out due to lack of employment opportunities and older liberals being replaced by younger conservatives could be a factor as well.

[Agonized-Statism]

There's a lot of moving parts to it, but the gist is that the Sun Belt suburbs are diversifying and secularizing while the spectacular late 2000s collapse of Reagan Era consensus (Great Recession, forever wars, climate change) and digitally organized social movements and awareness campaigns have pushed those who benefit from globalization away from social conservatism at the very least. Simultaneously, the rural Southern and Midwestern petit bourgeoise Republican base revolted against the Bush administration and a "do-nothing" 109th Congress's enormous government spending and wound up taking over their party, using digital organizing and driving wedges in a quickly diversifying America to come back from their Bush Era collapse fast. Some cases like Georgia can be attributed somewhat to high turnout, and the Rust Belt Three in 2016 to Trump's charisma, but that's what's going on under the hood IMO.

[Ragnaroni]

The states I am talking about are-

The 11 states that come to mind for me-
Missouri  and Arkansas(Tossup to Solid-R between 1996 and 2012)
West Virginia (Solid D to Solid R 1996 and 2008)
Virginia (Likely R to Likely D 2004 to 2020)
Florida (Tossup to Likely R 2012 to 2020)
Georgia (Safe R to Tossup 2004-2020)
North Carolina (Safe R to Tossup 2004-2012)
Colorado (Likely R to Safe D 2004 to 2020)
Iowa (Lean D to Safe R 2012 -2016)
Ohio (Tossup to Safe R 2012- 2016)
Arizona (Likely R to Tossup 2012 to 2020)

I think that is all the big one we talk about. Why did these happen?

Did one party have candidates that really made them reevaluate their allegiances or simply had better social skills than their opponents?

Was it that the local institutions made sure to fill up busses on election day? Was one side better at registration drives and getting people to the polls?

Beyond charisma, did one party, at least on a certain state basis, simply "win" the debate?

Was it that old people died or moved away or got replaced by young people and transplants?

For Virginia and Colorado, I'll go with older voters dying out and newer voters coming in with more left-wing voting patterns. The same applies to Arizona to a lesser extent (its still too soon plus McCain was from AZ so his numbers are a little skewed). I'm surprised not to see Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania here as they're also states that flipped in this same period.

Iowa, Ohio, Arkansas and Missouri strike to me as just replacement, older more Democratic voters being replaced by Republican ones. IA and OH might also have the slight effect of their cities shrinking (Democrat voters moving out). West Virginia is probably more of a case of parties moving away from their old platforms (Democrats being way less supportive of coal etc).

Georgia, North Carolina and Florida I'm not too sure about their inclusion. Florida used to vote for the winning party until 2020. Might be similar to the case of IA, OH and the rest while GA and NC is probably more Virginia and Colorado tier.

I would also argue that Bush was a Southerner and a Texan and had better margins in the South and SouthWest than say a Northern Republican might get.

Another key point is the environment of 2020. It helped flip some states and you mentioned turnout which is another factor. I feel like 2 to 3 presidential cycles are needed to see the new voting patterns (so Virginia is a blue state now since 2008-2012-2016-2020, Missouri is a red state now since 1996-2000-2004-2008-2012 etc). States like Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia etc need a few more cycles. It could just be a New Mexico 2004 case of a one-time flip and not a trend of sorts.

I spent way too much time trying to analyze this LMAO

[pbrower2a]

The biggest changes in American political culture since the 1970's and the 2020's (choosing two close elections that the Democratic nominee won) are:

1976




2020



1. The huge growth of the Mexican-American electorate
2. Increasing levels of formal education, especially among ethnic minorities
3. the decline of the role of labor unions due to the offshoring of manufacturing, the decline of mining, and the containerization of freight
4. the demise of 'liberal Republicans within the GOP
5. the rise of the Religious Right.

The first is enough to explain the clear shift of California, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico from R to D. (Arizona is still on probation here). That is about 70 electoral votes.

2. With higher participation of minorities in voting, their relevance in politics as candidates, and their effectiveness in outreach. Well-educated, competent minorities are the best refutation of racist tropes that have weakened in America. (The Civil Rights Act of 1965 was well entrenched in America in 1976). Ordinarily one would expect well-doing people to drift R, but such did not happen. Well-off minorities still are about the poor of their own groups, much unlike well-off white people toward poor whites. This may explain a state or two, but I can't say which ones. It also helps that Barack Obama was arguably one of the better Presidents that we ever had.

3. A key constituency of the Democratic Party remains organized labor. Republicans supported the offshoring of manufacturingtoplaces with low wages and weak-to-non-existent unions... and workers in those countries don't participate in American elections. Much of the job growth around 1980 was in jobs (retailing and restaurant work) in which the best chance of career advancement is to establish a work ethic and go elsewhere. Ohio lost lots of industrial jobs; the decline of the Demopcratic Party in West Virginia correlates neatly with the decline of mining and the once-powerul United Mine Workers union.

4. The GOP used to have liberals such as Charles Percy, Mark Hatfield, Bob Packwood, George Romney, Jim Jeffords, and Arlen Specter. To say that the GOP is more fascistic than liberal is hysterical in style -- but regrettably undeniable. Fascism, like the current GOP, disparages creativity, imagination, and even the level of intellectualism associated with schoolteachers and accountants. The Rockefeller Republicans were always incompatible with ignoramuses and racists, as shown in their support of civil rights for blacks. Those ignoramuses and racists were Democrats; indeed, Ike got about 80% believer.of the college-educated vote in the 1950's.  The "Rockefeller Republican" tendency has since become Democratic.   

5. This was huge in the 1980: the rise of the Religious Right. For them, being saved and believing the right things (like young-earth creationism and anti-feminism) mattered more than economic reality for a believer. Thus being destitute was a trivial sacrifice for being assured of Pie in the Sky When You Die. The Mountain South (Appalachia and the Ozarks) used to be largely bland Methodists and Presbyterians hard to place politically to Southern Baptists and members of Pentecostal churches. Reagan's people cultivated pastors such as  Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell, John Hagee, and Jimmy Swaggart who delivered the votes, much as Eisenhower cultivated the Mormon hierarchy. There are far more right-wing white Southern Baptists (Jimmy Carter is a Southern Baptist, but his politics are now out of place unless of African-American Southern Baptists) than there are Mormons. They see a tree and see lumber, and have no problem with, as Joni Mitchell put it, "pave(d) paradise... put up a parking lot" because there might be some short-term , non-union, construction jobs.

This constituency has shrunk significantly in recent years, but not enough to ensure the GOP landslide wins from in states that Carter or Bill Clinton won in the South for the last time for a Democratic nominee. Texas might go D in some year because it is becoming more a microcosm of America (it is as much Southwestern as classically "Southern").   

[Pres Mike]

There's a lot of moving parts to it, but the gist is that the Sun Belt suburbs are diversifying and secularizing while the spectacular late 2000s collapse of Reagan Era consensus (Great Recession, forever wars, climate change) and digitally organized social movements and awareness campaigns have pushed those who benefit from globalization away from social conservatism at the very least. Simultaneously, the rural Southern and Midwestern petit bourgeoise Republican base revolted against the Bush administration and a "do-nothing" 109th Congress's enormous government spending and wound up taking over their party, using digital organizing and driving wedges in a quickly diversifying America to come back from their Bush Era collapse fast. Some cases like Georgia can be attributed somewhat to high turnout, and the Rust Belt Three in 2016 to Trump's charisma, but that's what's going on under the hood IMO.

petit bourgeoise? You mean the tea party?