Why is Biden polling so much worse than last time around?
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  Why is Biden polling so much worse than last time around?
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Author Topic: Why is Biden polling so much worse than last time around?  (Read 848 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #25 on: September 11, 2023, 09:22:10 AM »

I think it's more simple than people are making it out to be. In 2020, once Biden was the nominee, Biden was the sole person to stop Trump. People galvanized against Trump pretty quickly on the left, and there wasn't much question about it.

Now, there's still quite a few people who don't seem convinced Biden will actually be the nominee yet, so I think many still aren't dialed in. Again, that's why generally Trump has a ceiling of 45-47% of the vote, because his supporters are basically once again completely rallied behind him. Bidens are here and there, because he has the Dem base, but not completely locked up, because there's still some people who don't seem to think Biden may 100% be the nominee (not because he's gonna die or something, but also b/c some don't seem to get the process)

Honestly I don't think we'll get a good guage of a H2H until the matchup becomes official. Then it also becomes 10x more serious for anyone who is Dem-leaning to see that Trump is officially the nominee, and once again Biden is the only one to stop him.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #26 on: September 11, 2023, 09:22:41 AM »

Simple answer:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html#polls

Biden average favorables before November 03, 2023: 50.71% favorable / 44% unfavorable (+7.71%)

Biden average favorables now: 40.1% favorable / 55.9% unfavorable (-15.8%)

How many ties do you need to be told to stop comparing pre-election favorability with when someone is the president?? It's two completely different things.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #27 on: September 11, 2023, 09:56:11 AM »

It doesn't matter about Favorbility, if we won WI, PA already in a special Eday and some polls are showing Biden plus 3 does Redban know unemployment was 10 percent in 20 not 4% percent now that's why Trump lost lol it's a 303 map when all the blue state polls show Biden ahead and Trump behind, if Biden polls are so bad

We are up 9 in VA and IL, CA and NY we are up 20


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wbrocks67
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« Reply #28 on: September 11, 2023, 09:59:00 AM »

How many ties do you need to be told to stop comparing pre-election favorability with when someone is the president?? It's two completely different things.

The other two presidents before him had similar favorables before and after becoming president. Trump's favorables improved markedly after he became president infact.

Does  Biden alone gets the excuse that "pre-election favorability" is completely different from post-election favorability?

Obama favorables before election day 2008: 56.86 favorable / 37.71% unfavorable (+19.15%)
Obama favorables before election day 2012: 51.57% fav / 45.14% unfav (+6.43%)
Obama final RCP average favorable: 59% / 36.1% (+22.9%)

Trump favorables before election day 2016: 38.57% fav / 57.71% unfav (-19.14%)
Trump favorables before election day 2020: 41.86% fav / 54.86% unfav (-13%)

A. Polarization is much different today than it was in 2008/2012.
B. Trump is a pretty separate case since he had the opposite effect, where his favorables were catastrophic before the election and they normalized somewhat when he was president.

The point is that all 3 of these are different contextual situations. It's the same with Hillary Clinton - her favorables were always better when she was *not running for president*, but changed when she was running for something/in the public eye. They're all just not comparable.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #29 on: September 11, 2023, 09:59:20 AM »

Simple answer:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html#polls

Biden average favorables before November 03, 2023: 50.71% favorable / 44% unfavorable (+7.71%)

Biden average favorables now: 40.1% favorable / 55.9% unfavorable (-15.8%)


Those favs are based on CNN polls that have him at 60% unfavorable that is a bogus poll Biden isn't at 40% fav
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