Where do you disagree with conventional wisdom for the 2024 Senate Races?

[Dave Hedgehog]

That gaining Texas is easier than holding Ohio in a post-Dobbs environment. Any prognosticator must grasp that abortion is effectively on the ballot in all of these races.

Completely agree with this. Ohio may be voting further right than Texas now in presidential elections but not by a huge amount. Brown is a three-term incumbent who has won an election in the Trump era (which many fellow Class I Sen Dems failed to do last time) while Democrats haven't won any statewide races in Texas in three decades. I'm ~90% sure that whatever happens, TX-SEN will be to the right of OH-SEN.

[sting in the rafters]

That gaining Texas is easier than holding Ohio in a post-Dobbs environment. Any prognosticator must grasp that abortion is effectively on the ballot in all of these races.

I agree that people are still underrating abortion  as a factor, but I don’t know if I’d go as far to say that this is actually conventional wisdom? Granted, I don’t know how much “conventional wisdom” on the specific senate races even exists right now. People seem to be substituting “Atlas collective” or “Twitter collective” wisdom, which is…a lot dumber and full of hot takes.

Valid, I’m just pre-empting the #trendz crowd who fail to understand that electoral trends and events tend to mirror well… real-life trends and events.