Fresh off of reports of DSCC polling showing Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell running just neck-and-neck with Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler in a potential 2008 matchup in Kentucky (McConnell 45, Chandler 44), McConnell has apparently turned to a GOP pollster to concoct numbers that show him comfortable in his reelection bid. But take a look at the questions required to push voters out of the camp of one of his possible Democratic challengers:
Mitch McConnell is only the 2nd person in Kentucky history to lead his party in the US Senate. On this, who do you agree with more (ROTATE)
* 70% People who feel that having someone from Kentucky lead his party in the Senate is a point of pride to them and will help get more done for the state
* 18% People who say having someone from Kentucky in a leadership position does not matter to them
* 5% Neither / other (DNR)
* 7% Don't know (DNR)
A point raised by critics is that Charlie Owen has no prior experience in public office and if elected he would be 70 years old on the day he was sworn in, one of the oldest freshman Senators in US history. In view of his age and lack of experience, do you have a very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative or very negative reaction to Charlie Owen running for Senate?
* 9% Very positive
* 22% Somewhat positive
* 32% Somewhat negative
* 21% Very negative
* 13% Don't know (DNR)
And based on their positions who are you most likely to vote for for US Senator? (ROTATE)
Charlie Owen who says he won't be politics as usual, that as minority leader Mitch McConnell is too caught up in Washington politics and isn't taking the time to get things done for the people of Kentucky
/OR/
Mitch McConnell who says that as Republican leader in the Senate he has proven to be effective in getting things done for Kentucky, that at age 70 Charlie Owen has no experience and will never build up the seniority to be effective for the state
* 29% Charlie Owen
* 55% Mitch McConnell
* Both of these equally (DNR) *
* 4% Neither of these / other (DNR)
* 10% Don't know (DNR)
As you can see the pollster, Jan R. van Lohuizen, uses a couple of tricks to achieve his desired results. First, the actual head-to-head question is phrased in such a way that there are positive and negative statements about both candidates, and so on the surface it would appear to be a balanced informed ballot question (or at least as balanced as these things come when commissioned by a particular candidate). Yet what does he do in the two questions preceding the informed ballot question? He loads the respondents with very unbalanced information -- positive information about McConnell and not one but two pieces of negative information about Owen. With this in mind, it's no wonder McConnell came out ahead in the final question.
But McConnell's performace in this rather unbalanced informed ballot question is less than one might have expected. For a sitting Senator to only receive 55 percent in a head-to-head match-up against someone portrayed as an old man with no political experience is actually somewhat underwhelming and is, in fact, somewhat telling about McConnell's weakness among Kentuckians. And as Mark Hebert, who posted the poll on his blog for WHAS News, notes, McConnell has been unable to crack the 50 percent approval mark in recent non-partisan polling from the state, yet more indication that the Senator is potentially vulnerable as he gears up for his reelection bid.
For more coverage of the effort to hold McConnell accountable and put him through the gauntlet this cycle, check out the Ditch Mitch blog.
http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/4/24/155745/800
