Is Florida becoming a GOP vote sink?

[ajc0918]

Florida is fast growing and attracting hundreds of thousands of new residents each year.

The state is also getting more conservative.

Is the state becoming a red vote sink by attracting conservative voters from other swing states?

The idea here is that every GOP voter that moves to Florida and doesn't move to another swing state (Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, etc.) is wasting their vote because of Florida's increasingly red tilt. At some point, it becomes the GOP's California with potentially millions of spoiled votes.  

Do you agree with this? Is there any data to see the migration trends of where Florida's new residents are coming from? If they're coming from a place like Pennsylvania or Michigan that would, in effect, be making those states bluer.

[EastwoodS]

I personally think the GOP will put themselves in a reverse scenario where they do pretty good in the popular vote while doing horribly in the electoral college, kind of what happened to the Dems in the 2000s. so yes. but you are from there, so what's your take..

[OSR stands with Israel]

I personally think the GOP will put themselves in a reverse scenario where they do pretty good in the popular vote while doing horribly in the electoral college, kind of what happened to the Dems in the 2000s. so yes. but you are from there, so what's your take..

It also happened to the GOP from 2004-2012. Kerry in 2004 could have won the electoral college without the popular vote and so could Obama and the reason was the GOP in the Bush years ran up the margins by such large margins in the Sunbelt but didnt do well in the Midwest.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I personally think the GOP will put themselves in a reverse scenario where they do pretty good in the popular vote while doing horribly in the electoral college, kind of what happened to the Dems in the 2000s. so yes. but you are from there, so what's your take..

It also happened to the GOP from 2004-2012. Kerry in 2004 could have won the electoral college without the popular vote and so could Obama and the reason was the GOP in the Bush years ran up the margins by such large margins in the Sunbelt but didnt do well in the Midwest.

Yes but that was because in 2004 Bush was winning Texas by 23 while keeping California and Illinois in the single digits. I seriously doubt that Florida will be voting over 10 on the presidential level despite its rightward trend, and its not like Texas is getting any redder. California might be inching rightwards but I doubt it gets within 20 soon, and Illinois is still very blue. My point is that I doubt the GOP loses the electoral college advantage in a world where Texas is competitive and Florida is less than R+15.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I personally think the GOP will put themselves in a reverse scenario where they do pretty good in the popular vote while doing horribly in the electoral college, kind of what happened to the Dems in the 2000s. so yes. but you are from there, so what's your take..

It also happened to the GOP from 2004-2012. Kerry in 2004 could have won the electoral college without the popular vote and so could Obama and the reason was the GOP in the Bush years ran up the margins by such large margins in the Sunbelt but didnt do well in the Midwest.

Yes but that was because in 2004 Bush was winning Texas by 23 while keeping California and Illinois in the single digits. I seriously doubt that Florida will be voting over 10 on the presidential level despite its rightward trend, and its not like Texas is getting any redder. California might be inching rightwards but I doubt it gets within 20 soon, and Illinois is still very blue. My point is that I doubt the GOP loses the electoral college advantage in a world where Texas is competitive and Florida is less than R+15.

Trump cant win the PV but another Republican absolutely could. Double Digit TX is not hard for a non Trump republican

[Devils30]

I can see FL at Trump+7 or so next time while GA, AZ go from R+4 to R+1-2 PVI nationally while MI, PA, WI trend 1% left or so.

This could get Biden a victory with a Hillary type of margin.

Rs have been making most of their recent gains with working class Asians, South American (non-Mexican) Latinos. Most polling suggest that the white vote will not improve for the GOP with a similar WWC margin and some of these special elections suggest additional Dem gains in places like suburban Milwaukee and presumably in similar suburbs across the country. Most working- class Asians are a heavily CA/NY group, the more educated Asians tend to vote extremely Dem.

This is mostly what we saw in 2022, the GOP made FL a deep red state and real gains in NY,CA but totally flopped in the key battlegrounds. If Trump cannot improve on 2020 with working class Mexican-Americans, he will not win NV or AZ and thus not win the presidency. The trends are also brutal for him in GA and he will need to convert some 2x WWC Clinton-Biden voters in WI PA MI without losing additional ground among college whites.

[Skill and Chance]

I can see FL at Trump+7 or so next time while GA, AZ go from R+4 to R+1-2 PVI nationally while MI, PA, WI trend 1% left or so.

This could get Biden a victory with a Hillary type of margin.

Rs have been making most of their recent gains with working class Asians, South American (non-Mexican) Latinos. Most polling suggest that the white vote will not improve for the GOP with a similar WWC margin and some of these special elections suggest additional Dem gains in places like suburban Milwaukee and presumably in similar suburbs across the country. Most working- class Asians are a heavily CA/NY group, the more educated Asians tend to vote extremely Dem.

This is mostly what we saw in 2022, the GOP made FL a deep red state and real gains in NY,CA but totally flopped in the key battlegrounds. If Trump cannot improve on 2020 with working class Mexican-Americans, he will not win NV or AZ and thus not win the presidency. The trends are also brutal for him in GA and he will need to convert some 2x WWC Clinton-Biden voters in WI PA MI without losing additional ground among college whites.

All of this seems doable for Trump except for GA.

[Devils30]

I can see FL at Trump+7 or so next time while GA, AZ go from R+4 to R+1-2 PVI nationally while MI, PA, WI trend 1% left or so.

This could get Biden a victory with a Hillary type of margin.

Rs have been making most of their recent gains with working class Asians, South American (non-Mexican) Latinos. Most polling suggest that the white vote will not improve for the GOP with a similar WWC margin and some of these special elections suggest additional Dem gains in places like suburban Milwaukee and presumably in similar suburbs across the country. Most working- class Asians are a heavily CA/NY group, the more educated Asians tend to vote extremely Dem.

This is mostly what we saw in 2022, the GOP made FL a deep red state and real gains in NY,CA but totally flopped in the key battlegrounds. If Trump cannot improve on 2020 with working class Mexican-Americans, he will not win NV or AZ and thus not win the presidency. The trends are also brutal for him in GA and he will need to convert some 2x WWC Clinton-Biden voters in WI PA MI without losing additional ground among college whites.

All of this seems doable for Trump except for GA.

What evidence is there to suggest additional gains with WWC in Midwest? If anything the GOP has stalled and reversed slightly with this group since 2020.

[Mr.Phips]

I can see FL at Trump+7 or so next time while GA, AZ go from R+4 to R+1-2 PVI nationally while MI, PA, WI trend 1% left or so.

This could get Biden a victory with a Hillary type of margin.

Rs have been making most of their recent gains with working class Asians, South American (non-Mexican) Latinos. Most polling suggest that the white vote will not improve for the GOP with a similar WWC margin and some of these special elections suggest additional Dem gains in places like suburban Milwaukee and presumably in similar suburbs across the country. Most working- class Asians are a heavily CA/NY group, the more educated Asians tend to vote extremely Dem.

This is mostly what we saw in 2022, the GOP made FL a deep red state and real gains in NY,CA but totally flopped in the key battlegrounds.

My guess is that NY/CA revert back to 2020 margins with Presidential year turnout.  There could be some further slippage on Long Island for Biden in NY, but I think he’ll hold the 2020 margins upstate. Dem turnout was really bad in NY and not great in CA.  

[South Dakota Democrat]

I personally think the GOP will put themselves in a reverse scenario where they do pretty good in the popular vote while doing horribly in the electoral college, kind of what happened to the Dems in the 2000s. so yes. but you are from there, so what's your take..

It also happened to the GOP from 2004-2012. Kerry in 2004 could have won the electoral college without the popular vote and so could Obama and the reason was the GOP in the Bush years ran up the margins by such large margins in the Sunbelt but didnt do well in the Midwest.

Yes but that was because in 2004 Bush was winning Texas by 23 while keeping California and Illinois in the single digits. I seriously doubt that Florida will be voting over 10 on the presidential level despite its rightward trend, and its not like Texas is getting any redder. California might be inching rightwards but I doubt it gets within 20 soon, and Illinois is still very blue. My point is that I doubt the GOP loses the electoral college advantage in a world where Texas is competitive and Florida is less than R+15.

Minor correction, Kerry won Illinois by just over 10 points, so it was not within single digits.

[2016]

Bottom Line: I'd rather have Florida as that Vote Sink State if I am Republican running for President in 2024 and beyond. It has 30 Electoral Votes, potentially 31 or 32 by 2030.

If I am a Republican Operative running a future POTUS Campaign I just don't want to sweat out the Sunshine State each and every time.

So FL becoming a Vote Sink State is actually a good think. You have those 30 Votes in the bank to start your night.

[EastwoodS]

Bottom Line: I'd rather have Florida as that Vote Sink State if I am Republican running for President in 2024 and beyond. It has 30 Electoral Votes, potentially 31 or 32 by 2030.

If I am a Republican Operative running a future POTUS Campaign I just don't want to sweat out the Sunshine State each and every time.

So FL becoming a Vote Sink State is actually a good think. You have those 30 Votes in the bank to start your night.

I'd agree with you. It always annoyed me how so many MAGA discord users saw no worry or concern with the fact that Democrats are winning their electoral vote rich states by 30-40% and Republicans are over here barely wining their states by 5% just to get over 270, and yet somehow a sane Republican is supposed to see that as a win? definitely a horrible strategy for long term wins.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I can see FL at Trump+7 or so next time while GA, AZ go from R+4 to R+1-2 PVI nationally while MI, PA, WI trend 1% left or so.

This could get Biden a victory with a Hillary type of margin.

Rs have been making most of their recent gains with working class Asians, South American (non-Mexican) Latinos. Most polling suggest that the white vote will not improve for the GOP with a similar WWC margin and some of these special elections suggest additional Dem gains in places like suburban Milwaukee and presumably in similar suburbs across the country. Most working- class Asians are a heavily CA/NY group, the more educated Asians tend to vote extremely Dem.

This is mostly what we saw in 2022, the GOP made FL a deep red state and real gains in NY,CA but totally flopped in the key battlegrounds. If Trump cannot improve on 2020 with working class Mexican-Americans, he will not win NV or AZ and thus not win the presidency. The trends are also brutal for him in GA and he will need to convert some 2x WWC Clinton-Biden voters in WI PA MI without losing additional ground among college whites.

All of this seems doable for Trump except for GA.

What evidence is there to suggest additional gains with WWC in Midwest? If anything the GOP has stalled and reversed slightly with this group since 2020.

Mahoning county voted for Vance by 4pts over the fabeled Tim Ryan. Based off trends it looks like Biden is probably going to lose it by 8 in 2024?

[sting in the rafters]

Florida itself is sinking so yes one way or another lmfaooooooooooooooo

[Person Man]

It probably doesn't change that much in the topline besides Texas and Florida switching places, but the fact still remains that the Great Lakes and perhaps other sunbelt states are losing out on Republican votes. It could be enough to undo a lot of those state level locks in places like Wisconsin, Arizona, and North Carolina.

Is that a reasonable trade? Democrats improve downballot without having to run Blue Dogs and Republicans start again with roughly the same amount of EVs (instead of a deficit). Gone are the days where a majority, or even a large plurality, even some states with a slightly liberal reputation, of states are totally dominated by Republicans at the state level.