Question about remaining high income/high education suburbs that still lean GOP

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm talking about neighborhoods like University Park (Dallas), West Lake (metro Dallas), Hunters Creek Village (Houston), Mountain Brook (just outside Birmingham, Alabama), Brentwood (Just outside Nasheville).

You have precincts/census tracts in these neighborhoods that have over a median income of 150k, 200k in some cases, have college attainment over 80 or even 90%, yet the precinct still leans R.

Do a large share of people in these precincts believe GOP conspiracy theories like the 2020 election was stolen, or Democrats are actively grooming children ect? Ik I've seen things that have said a very high concentration of J6 rioters that have been jailed are from of the wealthy surubs of Dallas-Ft Worth, but idk if that's indicative of these larger communities or not.

If by and large people in these communities do not believe in a lot of modern GOP propaganda, do they mostly lean R because of economic reasons, or cultural reasons?

Also do they continue to shift left long term? These are communities with some of the heaviest downballot lag/downballot ticket splitting in favor of Rs. Also in 2020, these precincts swung mostly to Biden, but often by not as heavily as one might expect (more in the 0-10 point left range as opposed to 10-20 point left we saw in many other suburbs).

[Oryxslayer]

Your bias is showing

Anyway, as is the case in most high income/education Southern Suburbs, its religion. These are people with enough means to actually spend time in a Evangelical Church most weeks, and use their money to push for action on those beliefs.

[Torie]

How many oil company executives live in Hunters Creek Village?

[ProgressiveModerate]

How many oil company executives live in Hunters Creek Village?

Probably a much higher concentration than normal, but I still find it hard to believe in communities of 10k+ people, you could actually have a concentration where like even just 30% of people are all oil executives in that one community, or enough to singlehandedly flip the politics.

Plus the median income is "only" $250k/year. Most of the oil executives are probably getting more than that.

[Torie]

How many oil company executives live in Hunters Creek Village?

Probably a much higher concentration than normal, but I still find it hard to believe in communities of 10k+ people, you could actually have a concentration where like even just 30% of people are all oil executives in that one community, or enough to singlehandedly flip the politics.

Plus the median income is "only" $250k/year. Most of the oil executives are probably getting more than that.

Houston's thing is fossil fuel energy production, and that is why I think that overall it is one of the most conservative big cities, and trending Dem at a far slower pace than say Dallas. One can benefit from that industry to the point of being upper middle class or rich, without necessarily having an executive office in the corporate headquarters.

[Del Tachi]

Mountain Brook is interesting in that it is (maybe the only?) city in Alabama where Doug Jones lost votes between 2017 and 2020, by a difference of about ~1,000.  Jones actually increased his vote totals in other educated Alabama suburbs, like Madison or Pike Road.

So if you want to find a Jones-Tuberville voter, Mountain Brook is probably the best place to look.  Maybe some big Auburn boosters?  LOL

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Every decade since Reagan, a new slice of the metro areas fall from the GOP.

In the early 90's it was places like the Bay Area, and Boston which are some of the bluest areas today.
In the 2000's you saw the fall of NOVA and Denver which are basically gone for the GOP on the federal level, and only a few Republicans remain on the state level from those areas.
In the 2010's we saw the sunbelt suburbs shift, places like Phoenix, Atlanta, DFW, and Houston, which are still battlegrounds on the federal level (except the Atlanta metro) and arguably still R favoring on the local one.
I'm sure there are a few others I missed like Seattle and Chicago, etc but you get the point.

As we go into the 2020's there are very few upscale suburban areas that are genuinely Republican on the federal level.

Kansas City - Pretty much gone for the GOP with the collapse of Johnson county.
Indianapolis - Hamilton county is trending D, and is now only single digits.

Nashville Milwuakee OKC and Salt Lake City are probably the final major suburban areas that are still deep red although they are weakening. Oklahoma County is trending blue and might flip soon.

[ProgressiveModerate]

How many oil company executives live in Hunters Creek Village?

Probably a much higher concentration than normal, but I still find it hard to believe in communities of 10k+ people, you could actually have a concentration where like even just 30% of people are all oil executives in that one community, or enough to singlehandedly flip the politics.

Plus the median income is "only" $250k/year. Most of the oil executives are probably getting more than that.

Houston's thing is fossil fuel energy production, and that is why I think that overall it is one of the most conservative big cities, and trending Dem at a far slower pace than say Dallas. One can benefit from that industry to the point of being upper middle class or rich, without necessarily having an executive office in the corporate headquarters.

True maybe my thinking is too black and white; there area lot of jobs in between executive and entry level oil positions.

Demographically, Houston is a lot more R than one would expect and I think that's for multiple reasons:

- Oil Industry
- Non-white voters, particularly Hispanics being very low turnout
- Many non-white non-citizens
- Fairly dense white exurban communities other similar metros like Dallas lack to the same extent. Montgomery County is a huge GOP vote netter; iirc biggest GOP vote netter in the Country in 2020.

[Sol]

How many oil company executives live in Hunters Creek Village?

Probably a much higher concentration than normal, but I still find it hard to believe in communities of 10k+ people, you could actually have a concentration where like even just 30% of people are all oil executives in that one community, or enough to singlehandedly flip the politics.

Plus the median income is "only" $250k/year. Most of the oil executives are probably getting more than that.

Houston's thing is fossil fuel energy production, and that is why I think that overall it is one of the most conservative big cities, and trending Dem at a far slower pace than say Dallas. One can benefit from that industry to the point of being upper middle class or rich, without necessarily having an executive office in the corporate headquarters.

True maybe my thinking is too black and white; there area lot of jobs in between executive and entry level oil positions.

Demographically, Houston is a lot more R than one would expect and I think that's for multiple reasons:

- Oil Industry
- Non-white voters, particularly Hispanics being very low turnout
- Many non-white non-citizens
- Fairly dense white exurban communities other similar metros like Dallas lack to the same extent. Montgomery County is a huge GOP vote netter; iirc biggest GOP vote netter in the Country in 2020.

Idk about this; the Dallas and Houston metros nearly voted the same in 2020. You can't assign it to one county in the way you can in Houston, but counties like Kaufman, Parker, Wise, etc. are very populous and highly GOP-voting.

[ProgressiveModerate]

How many oil company executives live in Hunters Creek Village?

Probably a much higher concentration than normal, but I still find it hard to believe in communities of 10k+ people, you could actually have a concentration where like even just 30% of people are all oil executives in that one community, or enough to singlehandedly flip the politics.

Plus the median income is "only" $250k/year. Most of the oil executives are probably getting more than that.

Houston's thing is fossil fuel energy production, and that is why I think that overall it is one of the most conservative big cities, and trending Dem at a far slower pace than say Dallas. One can benefit from that industry to the point of being upper middle class or rich, without necessarily having an executive office in the corporate headquarters.

True maybe my thinking is too black and white; there area lot of jobs in between executive and entry level oil positions.

Demographically, Houston is a lot more R than one would expect and I think that's for multiple reasons:

- Oil Industry
- Non-white voters, particularly Hispanics being very low turnout
- Many non-white non-citizens
- Fairly dense white exurban communities other similar metros like Dallas lack to the same extent. Montgomery County is a huge GOP vote netter; iirc biggest GOP vote netter in the Country in 2020.

Idk about this; the Dallas and Houston metros nearly voted the same in 2020. You can't assign it to one county in the way you can in Houston, but counties like Kaufman, Parker, Wise, etc. are very populous and highly GOP-voting.

Actually, this is kind of fair; I think the whiter Tarrant County suburbs are the equivalent of sorts in Dallas.

[kwabbit]

How many oil company executives live in Hunters Creek Village?

Probably a much higher concentration than normal, but I still find it hard to believe in communities of 10k+ people, you could actually have a concentration where like even just 30% of people are all oil executives in that one community, or enough to singlehandedly flip the politics.

Plus the median income is "only" $250k/year. Most of the oil executives are probably getting more than that.

Houston's thing is fossil fuel energy production, and that is why I think that overall it is one of the most conservative big cities, and trending Dem at a far slower pace than say Dallas. One can benefit from that industry to the point of being upper middle class or rich, without necessarily having an executive office in the corporate headquarters.

True maybe my thinking is too black and white; there area lot of jobs in between executive and entry level oil positions.

Demographically, Houston is a lot more R than one would expect and I think that's for multiple reasons:

- Oil Industry
- Non-white voters, particularly Hispanics being very low turnout
- Many non-white non-citizens
- Fairly dense white exurban communities other similar metros like Dallas lack to the same extent. Montgomery County is a huge GOP vote netter; iirc biggest GOP vote netter in the Country in 2020.

Idk about this; the Dallas and Houston metros nearly voted the same in 2020. You can't assign it to one county in the way you can in Houston, but counties like Kaufman, Parker, Wise, etc. are very populous and highly GOP-voting.

Actually, this is kind of fair; I think the whiter Tarrant County suburbs are the equivalent of sorts in Dallas.

\

The Tarrant County suburbs are not as educated as the Dallas suburbs as far as I know. In the South there hasn't been that strong of correlation between education rate and swing. Oklahoma County has an education rate below the national average, yet it still swung 16 points left since 2012. Tarrant is a good deal above the national average, yet it swung the same amount. Travis is far above the national average and the swing is only slightly more.

Education is still playing a strong role, but it seems as much related to the initial degree of GOP overperformance than it does to education rate. In the North the swings are a lot more polarized around education, but in the South basically all suburbs have swung left, even 25% ed ones where Trump gained in the North.

[ProgressiveModerate]

How many oil company executives live in Hunters Creek Village?

Probably a much higher concentration than normal, but I still find it hard to believe in communities of 10k+ people, you could actually have a concentration where like even just 30% of people are all oil executives in that one community, or enough to singlehandedly flip the politics.

Plus the median income is "only" $250k/year. Most of the oil executives are probably getting more than that.

Houston's thing is fossil fuel energy production, and that is why I think that overall it is one of the most conservative big cities, and trending Dem at a far slower pace than say Dallas. One can benefit from that industry to the point of being upper middle class or rich, without necessarily having an executive office in the corporate headquarters.

True maybe my thinking is too black and white; there area lot of jobs in between executive and entry level oil positions.

Demographically, Houston is a lot more R than one would expect and I think that's for multiple reasons:

- Oil Industry
- Non-white voters, particularly Hispanics being very low turnout
- Many non-white non-citizens
- Fairly dense white exurban communities other similar metros like Dallas lack to the same extent. Montgomery County is a huge GOP vote netter; iirc biggest GOP vote netter in the Country in 2020.

Idk about this; the Dallas and Houston metros nearly voted the same in 2020. You can't assign it to one county in the way you can in Houston, but counties like Kaufman, Parker, Wise, etc. are very populous and highly GOP-voting.

Actually, this is kind of fair; I think the whiter Tarrant County suburbs are the equivalent of sorts in Dallas.

\

The Tarrant County suburbs are not as educated as the Dallas suburbs as far as I know. In the South there hasn't been that strong of correlation between education rate and swing. Oklahoma County has an education rate below the national average, yet it still swung 16 points left since 2012. Tarrant is a good deal above the national average, yet it swung the same amount. Travis is far above the national average and the swing is only slightly more.

Education is still playing a strong role, but it seems as much related to the initial degree of GOP overperformance than it does to education rate. In the North the swings are a lot more polarized around education, but in the South basically all suburbs have swung left, even 25% ed ones where Trump gained in the North.

I think in a lot of lower education southern suburbs, you're seeing rapid increaes in the non-white population which might also be contributing to the leftwards swing. Back in 2010, Oklahoma County was nearly 60% white, but according to the 2020 census, it's only 51% white.

Tarrant County still has some suburbs that are like 90% white, so even if the whites within those suburbs are shifting left, the shift isn't as powerful as if you had a rapidly increasing non-white population.

[GregTheGreat657]

These areas are religious and wealthy enough that they still vote GOP because they want socially conservative, economically neoliberal policy. Despite the rise of Trumpism, the GOP is still a right-wing party on issues of economics as well as social issues like abortion and LGBTQ+ rights that Evangelical Christians care the most about.

[Bismarck]

Every decade since Reagan, a new slice of the metro areas fall from the GOP.

In the early 90's it was places like the Bay Area, and Boston which are some of the bluest areas today.
In the 2000's you saw the fall of NOVA and Denver which are basically gone for the GOP on the federal level, and only a few Republicans remain on the state level from those areas.
In the 2010's we saw the sunbelt suburbs shift, places like Phoenix, Atlanta, DFW, and Houston, which are still battlegrounds on the federal level (except the Atlanta metro) and arguably still R favoring on the local one.
I'm sure there are a few others I missed like Seattle and Chicago, etc but you get the point.

As we go into the 2020's there are very few upscale suburban areas that are genuinely Republican on the federal level.

Kansas City - Pretty much gone for the GOP with the collapse of Johnson county.
Indianapolis - Hamilton county is trending D, and is now only single digits.

Nashville Milwuakee OKC and Salt Lake City are probably the final major suburban areas that are still deep red although they are weakening. Oklahoma County is trending blue and might flip soon.

I would add Cincinnati as well. Even Uber wealthy enclaves like Indian Hill vote GOP. Hamilton is an interesting one to watch. It could very well flip in 2024, although I think it has another decade of voting R down ballot.

[Skill and Chance]

How many oil company executives live in Hunters Creek Village?

Probably a much higher concentration than normal, but I still find it hard to believe in communities of 10k+ people, you could actually have a concentration where like even just 30% of people are all oil executives in that one community, or enough to singlehandedly flip the politics.

Plus the median income is "only" $250k/year. Most of the oil executives are probably getting more than that.

A $250K median might make it the wealthiest community in the entire South.  I don't think there's even a zip code with a 7 figure median income in the country.