smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
Posts: 7,394
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« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2023, 01:18:10 AM » |
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« Edited: August 03, 2023, 06:23:56 AM by smoltchanov »
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They win sometimes even now (JBE is a good, if rare, example), but generally cultural issues now trump (sorry)))) economic ones in BOTH parties. Huey Long was an economic populist, but, most likely - would be a social conservative now, and that would create at least some problems for him in Democratic primaries.
In addition - as Democratic party in the South became not only "Black inclusive", but "Black dominant" - racial polarization increased considerably (for many whites such Democratic party became "too uncomfortable", though, theoretically, they were "for equality" or, at least, reconciled themselves with it). And when republicans finally got a majority (say, in state Legislature) another factor appeared: it's usually "better" to be in majority, then in minority, so even some moderates and moderate conservatives (who, until then, voted or even ran as Democrats) began to consider Republican party as "career vehicle" (just as conservative Democrats stayed in the party during New Deal and Fair Deal, which they mostly hated, because of the same reason).
The next factor - cost of campaigns went quickly up, and that means, that national party and PACs (and in Democratic case most PACs are liberal) began to play much greater role in political campaigns. And "he, who pays the fiddler, calls the tune...". In Democratic case national party and PACs demanded more and more liberal voting from supported candidates (even in the South), and, in any case - such candidates were much better financed and had better chances to win (primary, not general). So, typical for 1970-1995 years coalition of "somewhat moderate whites" and "Blacks, ready for compromise" exist no more - both groups became much more assertive in their demands.
All taken together led to present situation, where in most Southern districts (big metropolian areas excluded) all you need to predict a result is to look on Black-white ratio in district population (yes, there are some exceptions, but - fewer and fewer with every passing yesr).
P.S. As usual - everything written is my personal IMHO. I, naturally, am an "Internet observer of US politics" now, but, following US politics for 50+ years, still vividly remeber different times with quite different political coalitions)))))
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