Likeliest 2024 tipping-point state?

[cherry mandarin]

I'm assuming the GOP will control a majority of state delegations in the House if the EC ends up being tied, so: if Biden wins, which state will provide him with the decisive 270th electoral vote, and, if Trump should prevail, where will he receive his 269th from?

I realize this question's probably been asked before, but I wasn't around to read it, and I wanted to check  how everyone's opinions  on here  have changed  since  then.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is the tipping pt now Scott is only up 4 but clearly PA with Casey will come in First before the other if FL comes in for Biden or OH it will be late

Trump put all his energy into Oz winning because he wanted to win PA and he won't

If we win FL we win it by 1 not 10 Obama won it by 1

That's why I have FL strong D because Scott isn't Cuban like Rubio and he underperforms always


We always say Johnson and Brown overperformrned but Scott underperforming he only won his races all of them by 1.5 percentage pts

PA for now later FL when we see polls next June 24

[OriAr]

Wisconsin.

[seskoog]

Wisconsin, just like it was in 2020. I also think the same states and districts vote to the left/right of WI as 2020 (and 2016)

[cherry mandarin]

the same states and districts will vote to the left/right of WI as they did  back in 2020 (and 2016)

NE-02 voted  to the right  of  WI  in 2016   but  to its left  in 2020, though ...

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin, as it is more rural than Pennsylvania. 

[Xing]

Arizona.

[BigZuck08]

Pennsylvania. If not, then Wisconsin.

[Tekken_Guy]

Pennsylvania would have to vote to the right of both Arizona and Georgia to be the tipping point, and I’m skeptical that will happen.

[Ferguson97]

Arizona, for Biden.

[cherry mandarin]

Pennsylvania would have to vote to the right of both Arizona and Georgia in order to become the tipping-point state

No? If WI and PA switch places (which is *entirely* plausible) from 2020, PA becomes the tipping-point, while AZ and GA still  vote  to  their right.

In fact, there are  no *good* candidates to "overtake" PA in terms of *how* far  to  the right  it votes, other than NV—and, as it happens, PA will STILL be the tipping-point, even if NV gets *more* Republican  than PA (again, that is, assuming WI has  now  become *bluer* than  both states).

I’m skeptical that will happen.

How come? Those 3 states were *barely* a point  apart  in 2020. It isn't hard to see, especially  if PA has continued to drift  rightward  since 2020, while AZ and/or GA are still zooming  to  the left.

[johndavid2372]

I'm tied between Georgia and Pennsylvania here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be FL, Scott is underpolling he is only up 4 did you know that FL was the tipping pt state in 2012 and Obama win it by 1 not 10 and Biden was on the ballot the reason why FL, NC are so swingy they are the first swing State up PA and GA are bellwether states like OH, NM and MO are OH and MO are still bellwethers but NM has predicted the PVI winner every Edays except 1976

FL went 20 pts R last time like OH because of Cuban Rubio Scott has won by 1.5 in every Edays he is now vulnerable , if it's a blue wave those Red R Districts are gonna turn blue in a 230DH they won't turn blue in a narrow D majority


Biden isnt down 10 in FL and down 8 in NC if Scott is only up 4

Some pollster had lost in OH and Brown is leading it's hard to image Biden not winning OH if Brown is ahead

Biden helped Obama win OH in 2008/2012 and DeWine pulled Vance thru he win by 25, DeWine and Rubio aren't in ballot in 24

Why do you think Kunce has a chance because MO and KS are trending more D than Iowa it's more blks in both states , Great Recession more people are moving from white populated states to Sun belt states and it's cold in Iowa in Winter

[cherry mandarin]

did you know that FL was the tipping pt state in 2012

bro wat

it's hard to imagine Biden losing OH if Brown is ahead there

i hate to break it to u bud, but ...

[Devils30]

PA might be the most likely but I would say one of PA, AZ, NV, GA will likely be it.

Biden's 2 easiest paths look like:

1) MI+PA+GA
2) MI+NV+AZ+GA

Under #1, PA seems quite likely as GA very well votes to its left in 2024.
Under #2, you can make a solid case for GA, AZ and NV as all three might vote pretty similarly with PA, WI slightly to their right.

WI has some very favorable trends for Dems around Milwaukee but if these trends hold, Biden is likely getting the same benefits in Grand Rapids/Detroit, Harrisburg/Philly/Pitt and more supercharged Democratic swings in the Atlanta burbs. That is why i put WI as the least likely Biden 2020 state to hold, even if his odds are still very strong there.