Why is Penobscot County, ME, as Republican as it is?
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June 17, 2024, 04:22:36 AM
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  Why is Penobscot County, ME, as Republican as it is?
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Author Topic: Why is Penobscot County, ME, as Republican as it is?  (Read 122 times)
mianfei
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« on: June 12, 2024, 09:39:05 PM »

One question I have long wanted to ask is why Penobscot County, Maine is as Republican as it is, today and even historically.

It is the third-most-populous county in Maine (seventh most populous of 41 in Upper New England), and has a substantial student body at the University of Maine in Orono. Yet, apart from the anti-Goldwater 1964 election and the following “favorite son” 1968 election, no Democrat has ever managed 52 percent of the county’s vote. Even Barack Obama’s circa 51 percent seems strangely low for an urban college-town county especially one in the Northeast, and was his second-worst showing in Maine after thinly populated Piscataquis County.

Looking more closely at the municipality map does not clarify things perfectly.

If we examine the county (boundary) map and compare, we do see that there are a few Democratic municipalities in the south, but in fact fewer than in less populous, non-college-town Aroostook or Franklin Counties. We do see many extremely Republican — typical white rural — municipalities in the north of Penobscot, and the map does suggest that one possible reason Penobscot is as Republican as it is is that the county is much more rural than its population figure would imply. Is this correct?
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: June 12, 2024, 11:11:35 PM »

The overall percentage of people with higher education here is relatively low (30% according to the 2020 census, whereas the figure is 34% for Maine statewide). Furthermore, according to DRA data, there are only a few D-leaning municipalities in this county overall: Bangor, Old Town, Orono, Veazie, and the Penobscot Indian Island Reservation. These municipalities combine to comprise only about 35% of the county's total population, which means that the outer (rural) municipalities combined are enough to make this county R-leaning overall.
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