More Robo Polls... Virginia & Michigan

[The Vorlon]

These polls added to Dave's poll section !

I think BOTH leads are a bit low, but neither is "crazy"

I find it hard to believe Bush is doing better in Michigan than he is in BOTH Pennsylvania and Florida however

Standard Rasmussen Robo-rant applies...

=> Three weeks old already
=> Small samples
=> Extracted from a larger sample designed to do a different task
=> You know the drill...

Buyer Beware, No warranty expressed or implied


Kerry 46/44 in Michigan

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Virginia%20July%2010.htm




Bush 48/45 in Virginia

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Michigan%20July%2010.htm

[Gustaf]

Vorlon, do you think Virginia actually IS closer now than in 2000, maybe even substantially so?

Any state that's below 5% could swing either way due to campaign factors etc. Could Virginia go for Kerry in a close election?

[AuH2O]

No no no no no no no no no no no no no.

Kerry's odds of getting within 10% are about 1/4. Vorlon is just using the polls available to date. The numbers will reflect reality sooner or later.

I would take a large bet on Bush doing better in 04 than 00 in VA...

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I have Kerry down by 6.5 in Virginia right now...in a close national win with Edwards on the ticket, I could see it getting down to 5%, but not much further.

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon, do you think Virginia actually IS closer now than in 2000, maybe even substantially so?

Any state that's below 5% could swing either way due to campaign factors etc. Could Virginia go for Kerry in a close election?

Virgina was only an 8% margin in 2000, so it was never waaaaay out there.

I expect lower income males will break a bit to Kerry in this state and Edwards helps a bit.

4% or so would be my guess for Bush.

Barring a blowout Bush wins, but he will have to defend the state which is a Kerry semi-victory in it's self.

This state is kinda the "flip" for Tennessee.  Bush will cruise in Tennesse, and not have to defend much, but Virginia will require some defense.

[12th Doctor]

One word:  Zell Miller.


Bush will have to defend the state, but Zell will barnstorm it to assure that Kerry doesn't make substantial gains among lower-middle income whites.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

why would anyone outside of Georgia care what he thinks? And I don't see why anyone who would even consider voting for Kerry would like him, since he votes 100% right wing now and is no help to lower-middle income whites. Anyone who still likes Zell Miller at this point is firmly in the Bush column.

and that's two words by the way *decides not to do cheap swipe at supersoulty*

[12th Doctor]

why would anyone outside of Georgia care what he thinks? And I don't see why anyone who would even consider voting for Kerry would like him, since he votes 100% right wing now and is no help to lower-middle income whites. Anyone who still likes Zell Miller at this point is firmly in the Bush column.

and that's two words by the way *decides not to do cheap swipe at supersoulty*

No acctually, a persons full name is considered a single word.  I learned on day 1 of first grade English.

[agcatter]

Vorlon nailed it.  If Kerry were to win Virginia it would mean a 5 or 6 point national win for Kerry.  Don't hold your breath.

[© tweed]

I would take a large bet on Bush doing better in 04 than 00 in VA...

Do you mean in relation to the national trend line?  If so, you're on.

[CARLHAYDEN]

These polls added to Dave's poll section !

I think BOTH leads are a bit low, but neither is "crazy"

I find it hard to believe Bush is doing better in Michigan than he is in BOTH Pennsylvania and Florida however

Standard Rasmussen Robo-rant applies...

=> Three weeks old already
=> Small samples
=> Extracted from a larger sample designed to do a different task
=> You know the drill...

Buyer Beware, No warranty expressed or implied


Kerry 46/44 in Michigan

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Virginia%20July%2010.htm




Bush 48/45 in Virginia

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Michigan%20July%2010.htm

Re Michigan:

All of the polls cited have problems:

Mitchell and Suvey USA have too small a sample.  Small samples not only have MOE problems, but typically are sloppier than full sized surveys.

ARG, Epic/MRI, Rasmussen, and Survey USA (again) have way too many undecides because they are pushing people to decide who really haven't made up their minds.

OD fails to include "others," which would probably significantly reduce the overly large "undecided" category.

In general, at this time, Kerry probably has a very narrow lead over Bush in Michigan.

[CARLHAYDEN]

These polls added to Dave's poll section !

I think BOTH leads are a bit low, but neither is "crazy"

I find it hard to believe Bush is doing better in Michigan than he is in BOTH Pennsylvania and Florida however

Standard Rasmussen Robo-rant applies...

=> Three weeks old already
=> Small samples
=> Extracted from a larger sample designed to do a different task
=> You know the drill...

Buyer Beware, No warranty expressed or implied


Kerry 46/44 in Michigan

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Virginia%20July%2010.htm




Bush 48/45 in Virginia

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Michigan%20July%2010.htm

Re: Virginia polls

All three polls push the undecides too hard.

Also, as I have previously noted, Scott oversamples black Democrats in response to the 2000 election results.

Bush probably has a lead of at least five points in Virginia.

[AuH2O]

I would take a large bet on Bush doing better in 04 than 00 in VA...

Do you mean in relation to the national trend line?  If so, you're on.

hmm well I wasn't really clear on that. I'm 90% sure he will do better in raw terms. Relative to national? That makes me a little nervous, because if Bush does well his national % could go through the roof while VA would top out.

So, relative to 2000, I would not put a lot of $$ on 2004. Too many X factors... Virginia also lacks competitive secondary races that would boost GOP turnout.

[© tweed]

Well I won't do that bet because Bush's PV numbers could approach 55%.