Shrinking cities and Democratic voters

[Padfoot]

There are two trends I see in most of America's large cities.  #1 they tend to vote overwhelmingly Democratic and #2 many of them are experiencing population loss.  My question is then, where are all these presumed Democratic voters moving to?  Are they moving into the surrounding suburbs or are the relocating to large cities that are experiencing growth?  Also, are there any areas that are currently trending Democratic that could provide evidence as to where these people are moving to.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There are two trends I see in most of America's large cities.  #1 they tend to vote overwhelmingly Democratic and #2 many of them are experiencing population loss.  My question is then, where are all these presumed Democratic voters moving to?  Are they moving into the surrounding suburbs or are the relocating to large cities that are experiencing growth?  Also, are there any areas that are currently trending Democratic that could provide evidence as to where these people are moving to.

Take a look at the shifts in Long Island, northern New Jersey, places like Montgomery County, Pennsylvania and the outer fringes of the Chicago metro in the last couple years, and there's your answer.

[Verily]

As above. NoVA is a great example of this outward spread of Democratic voters from a big city.

[memphis]

The few Republicans who remain in big cities are moving out too, causing big cities to be even more Dem.

[muon2]

There are two trends I see in most of America's large cities.  #1 they tend to vote overwhelmingly Democratic and #2 many of them are experiencing population loss.  My question is then, where are all these presumed Democratic voters moving to?  Are they moving into the surrounding suburbs or are the relocating to large cities that are experiencing growth?  Also, are there any areas that are currently trending Democratic that could provide evidence as to where these people are moving to.

Take a look at the shifts in Long Island, northern New Jersey, places like Montgomery County, Pennsylvania and the outer fringes of the Chicago metro in the last couple years, and there's your answer.

This is very true in Chicagoland. Though there is an interesting effect that as one moves further out into the newest areas Republican voting tends to remain strong. Its as if the inner suburbs are moving out to the exurbs while the city moves to the inner 'burbs.

A second effect is to see what fraction of traditional city D voters switch to R as they become established in the suburbs. I know a precinct committeeman who falls into that category, and its not an isolated incident.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

There are two trends I see in most of America's large cities.  #1 they tend to vote overwhelmingly Democratic and #2 many of them are experiencing population loss.  My question is then, where are all these presumed Democratic voters moving to?

I don't think they're moving anywhere. I think the census just isn't counting them.

[Smash255]

There are two trends I see in most of America's large cities.  #1 they tend to vote overwhelmingly Democratic and #2 many of them are experiencing population loss.  My question is then, where are all these presumed Democratic voters moving to?  Are they moving into the surrounding suburbs or are the relocating to large cities that are experiencing growth?  Also, are there any areas that are currently trending Democratic that could provide evidence as to where these people are moving to.

Take a look at the shifts in Long Island, northern New Jersey, places like Montgomery County, Pennsylvania and the outer fringes of the Chicago metro in the last couple years, and there's your answer.

Somewhat due to the political changes in those areas, but the biggest change in part has been the old Rockefeller Republicans who remained loyal to the GOP even after the GOP left them, finally have given up all hope in the GOP with their latest rightward march.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In Minnesota, the trend has been the exact opposite thankfully. It's the Republicans who are leaving the cities. Of course this is making our suburbs even worse but I don't care about them anyway, at least it's making the city a much nicer place.

[CARLHAYDEN]

There are two trends I see in most of America's large cities.  #1 they tend to vote overwhelmingly Democratic and #2 many of them are experiencing population loss.  My question is then, where are all these presumed Democratic voters moving to?  Are they moving into the surrounding suburbs or are the relocating to large cities that are experiencing growth?  Also, are there any areas that are currently trending Democratic that could provide evidence as to where these people are moving to.

Take a look at the shifts in Long Island, northern New Jersey, places like Montgomery County, Pennsylvania and the outer fringes of the Chicago metro in the last couple years, and there's your answer.

This is very true in Chicagoland. Though there is an interesting effect that as one moves further out into the newest areas Republican voting tends to remain strong. Its as if the inner suburbs are moving out to the exurbs while the city moves to the inner 'burbs.

A second effect is to see what fraction of traditional city D voters switch to R as they become established in the suburbs. I know a precinct committeeman who falls into that category, and its not an isolated incident.

Exacly!

I pointed out this trend about a year ago.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Please note that while Bush won 50.73% of the popular vote, he carried 58.62% of the House of Representatives districts.

Also, the areas experiencing growth in excess of the national average voted disproportionately for Bush in 2004.

[Jacobtm]

There are two trends I see in most of America's large cities.  #1 they tend to vote overwhelmingly Democratic and #2 many of them are experiencing population loss.  My question is then, where are all these presumed Democratic voters moving to?  Are they moving into the surrounding suburbs or are the relocating to large cities that are experiencing growth?  Also, are there any areas that are currently trending Democratic that could provide evidence as to where these people are moving to.

One place these democrats are moving to is the south, where there are lower taxes, lower property prices, and a general lower cost of living.

My Aunt and Uncle both grew up in the suburbs of New York City on Long Island, and have now moved to Albuquerque, NM and Raleigh, NC; both Bush-haters since he was elected. The South is being dilluted with northerners.

[Smash255]

There are two trends I see in most of America's large cities.  #1 they tend to vote overwhelmingly Democratic and #2 many of them are experiencing population loss.  My question is then, where are all these presumed Democratic voters moving to?  Are they moving into the surrounding suburbs or are the relocating to large cities that are experiencing growth?  Also, are there any areas that are currently trending Democratic that could provide evidence as to where these people are moving to.

One place these democrats are moving to is the south, where there are lower taxes, lower property prices, and a general lower cost of living.

My Aunt and Uncle both grew up in the suburbs of New York City on Long Island, and have now moved to Albuquerque, NM and Raleigh, NC; both Bush-haters since he was elected. The South is being dilluted with northerners.

Where on LI did they grow up??

As those from the northeast continue to move south, you will see some southern areas get more & more Democratic, especially the large transplant areas such as Raleigh, Charlotte, and northern VA.  Not only do you have a large amount of Northern Dems moving down there, you do have northeastern old school Rockefeller Republicans.  The few who haven't left the GOP already will when they move down there and see that the entire Republican party down there is made up of the wing that makes them cringe.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There are two trends I see in most of America's large cities.  #1 they tend to vote overwhelmingly Democratic and #2 many of them are experiencing population loss.  My question is then, where are all these presumed Democratic voters moving to?  Are they moving into the surrounding suburbs or are the relocating to large cities that are experiencing growth?  Also, are there any areas that are currently trending Democratic that could provide evidence as to where these people are moving to.

Take a look at the shifts in Long Island, northern New Jersey, places like Montgomery County, Pennsylvania and the outer fringes of the Chicago metro in the last couple years, and there's your answer.

This is very true in Chicagoland. Though there is an interesting effect that as one moves further out into the newest areas Republican voting tends to remain strong. Its as if the inner suburbs are moving out to the exurbs while the city moves to the inner 'burbs.

A second effect is to see what fraction of traditional city D voters switch to R as they become established in the suburbs. I know a precinct committeeman who falls into that category, and its not an isolated incident.

Lots of people switch both ways. However, lots of inner suburbs have had HUGE pro-Democratic swings in the last couple of decades. Check out the massive PVI swings on Nassau, NY or most of the bay area. 

[muon2]

There are two trends I see in most of America's large cities.  #1 they tend to vote overwhelmingly Democratic and #2 many of them are experiencing population loss.  My question is then, where are all these presumed Democratic voters moving to?  Are they moving into the surrounding suburbs or are the relocating to large cities that are experiencing growth?  Also, are there any areas that are currently trending Democratic that could provide evidence as to where these people are moving to.

Take a look at the shifts in Long Island, northern New Jersey, places like Montgomery County, Pennsylvania and the outer fringes of the Chicago metro in the last couple years, and there's your answer.

This is very true in Chicagoland. Though there is an interesting effect that as one moves further out into the newest areas Republican voting tends to remain strong. Its as if the inner suburbs are moving out to the exurbs while the city moves to the inner 'burbs.

A second effect is to see what fraction of traditional city D voters switch to R as they become established in the suburbs. I know a precinct committeeman who falls into that category, and its not an isolated incident.

Lots of people switch both ways. However, lots of inner suburbs have had HUGE pro-Democratic swings in the last couple of decades. Check out the massive PVI swings on Nassau, NY or most of the bay area. 

Swings in percentages are good measuers in established communities where the population total is relatively constant. Your examples fit that well.

In areas with growth its more important to look at the change in net votes for a party. It's not unusual to see a semirural area that was a high R percentage get closer to 50% as it grows. Yet as one looks closer the net R vote has increased. And it's the net votes precinct-by-precinct in a district that determines the winner.

[Jacobtm]

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Masapequa.

[Smash255]

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Masapequa.

Forgot an s Massapequa   Thats where I live.  Not sure how old they are, but did they by any chance know the Baldwin brothers or Jerry Seinfeld?  both grew up in Massapequa as well.