Is Craig Kimbrel a Hall of Famer?

[NewYorkExpress]

A few hours ago, the Phillies's Craig Kimbrel earned his 400th career save. Only seven other pitchers are on that list. They are, Kenley Jansen, Billy Wagner, John Franco, Fransisco Rodriguez, Lee Smith, Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera. Kimbrel also won a World Series with the 2018 Boston Red Sox.

Is he a Hall of Famer?

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

I think he may sneak in but given how dominant he was for the first few years of his career, you would expect him to have been a lock. Goes to show that closers really need to work hard to fight the inevitable decline that they all go through.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Francisco Rodriguez was better and has better playoff stats with a more impressive championship role. Let's see if he makes it. Joe Nathan had reasonably comparable accomplishments as well but lacked any playoff success so he didn't make it past one ballot. Kimbrel is somewhere between those two in all likelihood.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

The question of the thread involved two (2) separate questions.  One is whether or not Craig Kimbrel has had a career of the quality enough to where he would merit induction to the HOF.  The other is whether or not Craig Kimbrel will, deserving or not, be elected to the HOF.  There are certainly deserving players not in the HOF, and there are certainly players who have been elected to the HOF that are mistakes that should not be viewed as standards for induction.  It was a mistake to elect George Kelly to the HOF.  Does that mean we should elect every first baseman better than George Kelly to the HOF?  

If Kimbrel's career ended today he would have the fewest IP of any pltcher in the HOF.  Kenley Jansen, who has 1 more career save than Kimbrel at this point, has 76 more IP for his career at this point.  That's not really a HOFer.  The three (3) guys that are ahead of him in career saves that are in the HOF (Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Lee Smith) all held the career saves record at one time.  Smith was a bit of a compiler, but Hoffman and Rivera were both considered the best closer in baseball at one time or another, and Rivera is the best closer of all time by a wide margin.  Guys that have been relievers other than that which made the HOF are guys that were once starters (Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm), pitched more than 1 inning for parts of their careers (Rich Gossage), or had an unbelievably impactful year that made their career (Bruce Sutter).  Kimbrel has had a higher peak than Jansen, and higher than Billy Wagner (who IS currently on the BBWAA ballot) if you want to compare him to Wagner, but Wagner finished stron.  Kimbrel, on the other hand, appears to be running out of gas and is no longer a front-line closer.

If you're going to be a HOF "closer", you need to have a career in line with Rivera, Hoffman, and Smith.  Those are the Great Relievers of their type.  Kimbrel isn't there yet, and he's likely to not get there.  He has 8 All-Star Game appearances, and that puts him him in the group with Jansen and Wagner, and he was the saves leader 4 years in a row, so he has a higher peak.  Wagner, who's a fave from some sportswriters, never led his league in saves, and his WHIP is fractionally higher.  

My sense of all of this is that of the Wagner/Jansen/Kimbrel troika, Jansen is the best of the bunch.  Jansen is still a front-line closer, whereas Kimbrel is in the "vulturing wins" phase of his career.  Jansen is the only one of this group with a possible chance to move into the top 3 in saves.  For Kimbrel to make the HOF, he would have to do more than just hang on; he's have to post the kind of seasons where he's a real front-line closer, and I think he's a bit past that point.