People are writing off Sherrod Brown too quickly.

[Yoda]

Also, I forgot to say that I noticed when reading through the replies that no one, arguing for or against the idea that Brown is being underestimated, mentioned that we now live in a post-Roe world. Brown's last election was '18, so any analysis that doesn't factor in that Roe will essentially be on the ballot next year is not worth much. Republicans have been performing horrendously in almost every regular and special election since Dobbs, and in a pro-choice state like Ohio (if you don't believe me you'll see this November) it's entirely reasonable to expect that issue will cost the republican nominee a couple points against Brown. That's a couple points they may not be able to afford against the strongest statewide democrat in Ohio.

[Woody]

Also, I forgot to say that I noticed when reading through the replies that no one, arguing for or against the idea that Brown is being underestimated, mentioned that we now live in a post-Roe world. Brown's last election was '18, so any analysis that doesn't factor in that Roe will essentially be on the ballot next year is not worth much. Republicans have been performing horrendously in almost every regular and special election since Dobbs, and in a pro-choice state like Ohio (if you don't believe me you'll see this November) it's entirely reasonable to expect that issue will cost the republican nominee a couple points against Brown. That's a couple points they may not be able to afford against the strongest statewide democrat in Ohio.

>Lost to J.D. Vance the same year

[Arizona Iced Tea]

My gut tells me slight lean to Brown to right now. Ohio republicans will (likely) be coming off of losing two high-profile ballot amendments going into '24. It's hard to understate what a bloody nose that will give them, and how much it will energize democrats. It's also likely that next November, these energized Ohio dems will have put a (real) gerrymandering reform amendment on the ballot and maybe a minimum wage increase amendment as well. Brown will tie himself to these, as any dem with two brain cells would.

You don't think Trump's coattails in winning the state would help the Republican challenger?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My gut tells me slight lean to Brown to right now. Ohio republicans will (likely) be coming off of losing two high-profile ballot amendments going into '24. It's hard to understate what a bloody nose that will give them, and how much it will energize democrats. It's also likely that next November, these energized Ohio dems will have put a (real) gerrymandering reform amendment on the ballot and maybe a minimum wage increase amendment as well. Brown will tie himself to these, as any dem with two brain cells would.

You don't think Trump's coattails in winning the state would help the Republican challenger?

Lol you guys lost big in WI and Pza and FL it doesn't matter what Biden Approvals areBiden is gonna win OH it's wave insurance, Vance won in 22 due to DeWine and Trump won OH in 2016/20  pre J6

Red states aren't gonna stay red forever cmon

Carter won TX, FL, N, OH  and MO and Clinton win MO, OH Twice and Obama won OH, FL twice they are purple states not red states

Trump is down 7 to Biden in Morning Consult and that's how much Obama and Biden won in. 2008 you guys trust Approval to much

They constantly poll Biden Approvals so they can see how wrong they are v Trump H2H don't matter until Eday anyways not 18 months before you guys are in trouble in KY and MS G that's not not Biden 40 percentage ipts Approval

Presley is a blue dog like Beshear but Shawn Wilson is a Liberal D

[Unelectable Bystander]

Also, I forgot to say that I noticed when reading through the replies that no one, arguing for or against the idea that Brown is being underestimated, mentioned that we now live in a post-Roe world. Brown's last election was '18, so any analysis that doesn't factor in that Roe will essentially be on the ballot next year is not worth much. Republicans have been performing horrendously in almost every regular and special election since Dobbs, and in a pro-choice state like Ohio (if you don't believe me you'll see this November) it's entirely reasonable to expect that issue will cost the republican nominee a couple points against Brown. That's a couple points they may not be able to afford against the strongest statewide democrat in Ohio.

>Lost to J.D. Vance the same year

Are JD Vance’s views too extreme?

39% Yes 51% No

Are Tim Ryan’s views too extreme?

43% Yes 48% No

[wbrocks67]

Ohio obv isn't kean on electing Dems right now but I don't think they are as anti-Dem as the results suggest. i.e., I think Brown actually has some credibility in the whole "last Dem standing" thing because whether it's right or not, some (moderate/swing/non super ideological) voters do like to keep around at least one person of the opposite party for 'balance.' We see this more often with Republicans in Dem states, but Brown seems like the best prospect to make that work in OH. Especially since he's OH's version of "not your typical Dem"

[Galeel]

Brown is easily the most likely of the big 3 to keep his seat (I don't really think Tester or Manchin have much of a chance) but I still think he's a slight underdog.

[Fuzzy Bear]

What happened to Ohio is not that places like Youngstown shifted to the GOP; it's that places like Southeastern Ohio went from Lean R to Titanium R, and at all levels.  It's an area that is not unlike neighboring West Virginia, in that it has coal mines and is part of the northernmost tier of Appalachia. 

Jackson County, Ohio:
Year   Republican   Democratic   Third party
No.    %   No.    %   No.    %
2020   11,309   76.36%   3,311   22.36%   190   1.28%
2016   9,949   72.22%   3,226   23.42%   601   4.36%
2012   7,904   58.97%   5,166   38.54%   334   2.49%
2008   8,219   58.51%   5,397   38.42%   431   3.07%
2004   8,585   59.89%   5,700   39.77%   49   0.34%
2000   6,958   55.71%   5,131   41.08%   401   3.21%
1996   4,922   40.69%   5,538   45.79%   1,635   13.52%
1992   5,422   42.09%   5,016   38.94%   2,445   18.98%

Gallia County, Ohio:Year   Republican   Democratic   Third party
No.    %   No.    %   No.    %
2020   10,645   77.14%   2,990   21.67%   164   1.19%
2016   9,822   75.53%   2,628   20.21%   554   4.26%
2012   7,750   61.40%   4,557   36.10%   315   2.50%
2008   8,247   61.68%   4,777   35.73%   347   2.60%
2004   8,576   61.29%   5,366   38.35%   51   0.36%
2000   7,511   58.79%   4,872   38.13%   393   3.08%
1996   5,135   41.19%   5,386   43.21%   1,945   15.60%
1992   5,776   42.04%   5,350   38.94%   2,612   19.01

Vinton County, Ohio:
Year   Republican   Democratic   Third party
No.    %   No.    %   No.    %
2020   4,632   76.71%   1,331   22.04%   75   1.24%
2016   3,883   70.09%   1,351   24.39%   306   5.52%
2012   2,856   52.02%   2,436   44.37%   198   3.61%
2008   3,021   53.51%   2,463   43.62%   162   2.87%
2004   3,249   54.81%   2,651   44.72%   28   0.47%
2000   2,720   54.99%   2,037   41.18%   189   3.82%
1996   1,673   34.77%   2,350   48.85%   788   16.38%
1992   1,975   36.83%   2,308   43.04%   1,080   20.14%

Republican   Democratic   Third party
No.    %   No.    %   No.    %
2020   20,306   72.06%   7,489   26.58%   384   1.36%
2016   18,689   69.76%   6,974   26.03%   1,126   4.20%
2012   14,651   56.50%   10,744   41.43%   537   2.07%
2008   15,415   56.28%   11,262   41.12%   713   2.60%
2004   15,455   55.77%   12,120   43.74%   135   0.49%
2000   12,531   51.25%   11,307   46.24%   614   2.51%
1996   8,832   36.91%   11,595   48.46%   3,499   14.62%
1992   10,044   37.17%   12,325   45.61%   4,652   17.22% County, Ohio:

Scioto County, Ohio:
Year   Republican   Democratic   Third party
No.    %   No.    %   No.    %
2020   22,609   70.54%   9,080   28.33%   362   1.13%
2016   20,550   66.28%   9,132   29.46%   1,321   4.26%
2012   15,492   49.56%   15,077   48.23%   693   2.22%
2008   16,994   51.93%   14,926   45.61%   803   2.45%
2004   18,259   51.87%   16,827   47.80%   117   0.33%
2000   15,022   50.17%   13,997   46.74%   926   3.09%
1996   11,679   37.28%   15,041   48.01%   4,608   14.71%
1992   11,931   35.48%   14,715   43.76%   6,978   20.75%

Pike County, Ohio:
Year   Republican   Democratic   Third party
No.    %   No.    %   No.    %
2020   9,157   73.70%   3,110   25.03%   157   1.26%
2016   7,902   66.12%   3,539   29.61%   510   4.27%
2012   5,685   49.03%   5,684   49.02%   227   1.96%
2008   6,162   49.27%   6,033   48.24%   311   2.49%
2004   6,520   51.84%   5,989   47.62%   67   0.53%
2000   5,333   50.50%   4,923   46.62%   304   2.88%
1996   3,759   34.85%   5,542   51.38%   1,486   13.78%
1992   4,094   35.93%   5,057   44.39%   2,242   19.68%

Ross County, Ohio:
Year   Republican   Democratic   Third party
No.    %   No.    %   No.    %
2020   22,278   66.77%   10,557   31.64%   530   1.59%
2016   18,652   61.02%   10,356   33.88%   1,557   5.09%
2012   15,008   49.76%   14,569   48.31%   583   1.93%
2008   16,759   52.49%   14,455   45.28%   711   2.23%
2004   17,231   54.41%   13,978   44.14%   462   1.46%
2000   13,706   52.68%   11,662   44.83%   648   2.49%
1996   10,286   39.87%   12,649   49.03%   2,862   11.09%
1992   10,825   39.84%   10,452   38.46%   5,896   21.70%

Athens County, Ohio:
Year   Republican   Democratic   Third party
No.    %   No.    %   No.    %
2020   10,862   41.58%   14,772   56.55%   486   1.86%
2016   11,354   38.22%   16,370   55.10%   1,985   6.68%
2012   8,543   30.81%   18,307   66.02%   878   3.17%
2008   9,742   31.17%   20,722   66.29%   795   2.54%
2004   10,847   36.10%   18,998   63.23%   200   0.67%
2000   9,703   38.13%   13,158   51.71%   2,586   10.16%
1996   7,154   29.87%   13,418   56.02%   3,382   14.12%
1992   7,184   27.85%   13,423   52.04%   5,186   20.11%

Washington County, Ohio:
2020   22,307   69.53%   9,243   28.81%   531   1.66%
2016   20,514   68.07%   8,026   26.63%   1,597   5.30%
2012   17,284   58.39%   11,651   39.36%   667   2.25%
2008   17,019   56.86%   12,368   41.32%   545   1.82%
2004   17,532   58.02%   12,538   41.49%   146   0.48%
2000   15,342   57.86%   10,383   39.16%   790   2.98%
1996   11,965   46.06%   10,945   42.13%   3,067   11.81%
1992   12,204   43.47%   10,380   36.98%   5,489   19.55%

Morgan County, Ohio:
Year   Republican   Democratic   Third party
No.    %   No.    %   No.    %
2020   5,041   73.53%   1,725   25.16%   90   1.31%
2016   4,431   68.41%   1,736   26.80%   310   4.79%
2012   3,179   51.81%   2,814   45.86%   143   2.33%
2008   3,440   51.96%   2,966   44.80%   214   3.23%
2004   3,758   56.06%   2,875   42.89%   70   1.04%
2000   3,451   57.58%   2,261   37.73%   281   4.69%
1996   2,566   42.97%   2,385   39.94%   1,020   17.08%
1992   2,719   40.54%   2,402   35.81%   1,586   23.65%

This part of Ohio was the part where Bill Clinton began his 1992 bus tour.  It was the area of Ohio that elected Democrats to Congress (e. g. Ted Strickland and Zack Space).  This area, however, has shifted roughly twenty (20) points overall to the GOP.  And it's staying there.  That's a massive shift, and it's the same shift that happened in next-door West Virginia.  This is why I believe that the Democratic Party, whatever it does in Texas or Florida, will not carry Ohio in a Presidential race again in my lifetime.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What happened to Ohio is not that places like Youngstown shifted to the GOP; it's that places like Southeastern Ohio went from Lean R to Titanium R, and at all levels.  It's an area that is not unlike neighboring West Virginia, in that it has coal mines and is part of the northernmost tier of Appalachia.  

Jackson County, Ohio:
Year   Republican   Democratic   Third party
No.    %   No.    %   No.    %
2020   11,309   76.36%   3,311   22.36%   190   1.28%
2016   9,949   72.22%   3,226   23.42%   601   4.36%
2012   7,904   58.97%   5,166   38.54%   334   2.49%
2008   8,219   58.51%   5,397   38.42%   431   3.07%
2004   8,585   59.89%   5,700   39.77%   49   0.34%
2000   6,958   55.71%   5,131   41.08%   401   3.21%
1996   4,922   40.69%   5,538   45.79%   1,635   13.52%
1992   5,422   42.09%   5,016   38.94%   2,445   18.98%

Gallia County, Ohio:Year   Republican   Democratic   Third party
No.    %   No.    %   No.    %
2020   10,645   77.14%   2,990   21.67%   164   1.19%
2016   9,822   75.53%   2,628   20.21%   554   4.26%
2012   7,750   61.40%   4,557   36.10%   315   2.50%
2008   8,247   61.68%   4,777   35.73%   347   2.60%
2004   8,576   61.29%   5,366   38.35%   51   0.36%
2000   7,511   58.79%   4,872   38.13%   393   3.08%
1996   5,135   41.19%   5,386   43.21%   1,945   15.60%
1992   5,776   42.04%   5,350   38.94%   2,612   19.01

Vinton County, Ohio:
Year   Republican   Democratic   Third party
No.    %   No.    %   No.    %
2020   4,632   76.71%   1,331   22.04%   75   1.24%
2016   3,883   70.09%   1,351   24.39%   306   5.52%
2012   2,856   52.02%   2,436   44.37%   198   3.61%
2008   3,021   53.51%   2,463   43.62%   162   2.87%
2004   3,249   54.81%   2,651   44.72%   28   0.47%
2000   2,720   54.99%   2,037   41.18%   189   3.82%
1996   1,673   34.77%   2,350   48.85%   788   16.38%
1992   1,975   36.83%   2,308   43.04%   1,080   20.14%

Republican   Democratic   Third party
No.    %   No.    %   No.    %
2020   20,306   72.06%   7,489   26.58%   384   1.36%
2016   18,689   69.76%   6,974   26.03%   1,126   4.20%
2012   14,651   56.50%   10,744   41.43%   537   2.07%
2008   15,415   56.28%   11,262   41.12%   713   2.60%
2004   15,455   55.77%   12,120   43.74%   135   0.49%
2000   12,531   51.25%   11,307   46.24%   614   2.51%
1996   8,832   36.91%   11,595   48.46%   3,499   14.62%
1992   10,044   37.17%   12,325   45.61%   4,652   17.22% County, Ohio:

Scioto County, Ohio:
Year   Republican   Democratic   Third party
No.    %   No.    %   No.    %
2020   22,609   70.54%   9,080   28.33%   362   1.13%
2016   20,550   66.28%   9,132   29.46%   1,321   4.26%
2012   15,492   49.56%   15,077   48.23%   693   2.22%
2008   16,994   51.93%   14,926   45.61%   803   2.45%
2004   18,259   51.87%   16,827   47.80%   117   0.33%
2000   15,022   50.17%   13,997   46.74%   926   3.09%
1996   11,679   37.28%   15,041   48.01%   4,608   14.71%
1992   11,931   35.48%   14,715   43.76%   6,978   20.75%

Pike County, Ohio:
Year   Republican   Democratic   Third party
No.    %   No.    %   No.    %
2020   9,157   73.70%   3,110   25.03%   157   1.26%
2016   7,902   66.12%   3,539   29.61%   510   4.27%
2012   5,685   49.03%   5,684   49.02%   227   1.96%
2008   6,162   49.27%   6,033   48.24%   311   2.49%
2004   6,520   51.84%   5,989   47.62%   67   0.53%
2000   5,333   50.50%   4,923   46.62%   304   2.88%
1996   3,759   34.85%   5,542   51.38%   1,486   13.78%
1992   4,094   35.93%   5,057   44.39%   2,242   19.68%

Ross County, Ohio:
Year   Republican   Democratic   Third party
No.    %   No.    %   No.    %
2020   22,278   66.77%   10,557   31.64%   530   1.59%
2016   18,652   61.02%   10,356   33.88%   1,557   5.09%
2012   15,008   49.76%   14,569   48.31%   583   1.93%
2008   16,759   52.49%   14,455   45.28%   711   2.23%
2004   17,231   54.41%   13,978   44.14%   462   1.46%
2000   13,706   52.68%   11,662   44.83%   648   2.49%
1996   10,286   39.87%   12,649   49.03%   2,862   11.09%
1992   10,825   39.84%   10,452   38.46%   5,896   21.70%

Athens County, Ohio:
Year   Republican   Democratic   Third party
No.    %   No.    %   No.    %
2020   10,862   41.58%   14,772   56.55%   486   1.86%
2016   11,354   38.22%   16,370   55.10%   1,985   6.68%
2012   8,543   30.81%   18,307   66.02%   878   3.17%
2008   9,742   31.17%   20,722   66.29%   795   2.54%
2004   10,847   36.10%   18,998   63.23%   200   0.67%
2000   9,703   38.13%   13,158   51.71%   2,586   10.16%
1996   7,154   29.87%   13,418   56.02%   3,382   14.12%
1992   7,184   27.85%   13,423   52.04%   5,186   20.11%

Washington County, Ohio:
2020   22,307   69.53%   9,243   28.81%   531   1.66%
2016   20,514   68.07%   8,026   26.63%   1,597   5.30%
2012   17,284   58.39%   11,651   39.36%   667   2.25%
2008   17,019   56.86%   12,368   41.32%   545   1.82%
2004   17,532   58.02%   12,538   41.49%   146   0.48%
2000   15,342   57.86%   10,383   39.16%   790   2.98%
1996   11,965   46.06%   10,945   42.13%   3,067   11.81%
1992   12,204   43.47%   10,380   36.98%   5,489   19.55%

Morgan County, Ohio:
Year   Republican   Democratic   Third party
No.    %   No.    %   No.    %
2020   5,041   73.53%   1,725   25.16%   90   1.31%
2016   4,431   68.41%   1,736   26.80%   310   4.79%
2012   3,179   51.81%   2,814   45.86%   143   2.33%
2008   3,440   51.96%   2,966   44.80%   214   3.23%
2004   3,758   56.06%   2,875   42.89%   70   1.04%
2000   3,451   57.58%   2,261   37.73%   281   4.69%
1996   2,566   42.97%   2,385   39.94%   1,020   17.08%
1992   2,719   40.54%   2,402   35.81%   1,586   23.65%

This part of Ohio was the part where Bill Clinton began his 1992 bus tour.  It was the area of Ohio that elected Democrats to Congress (e. g. Ted Strickland and Zack Space).  This area, however, has shifted roughly twenty (20) points overall to the GOP.  And it's staying there.  That's a massive shift, and it's the same shift that happened in next-door West Virginia.  This is why I believe that the Democratic Party, whatever it does in Texas or Florida, will not carry Ohio in a Presidential race again in my lifetime.

Lol Sherrod Brown has won every Edays it doesn't matter what past Edays were Polls are showing J6 Trump losing to Biden by 7, we are polling much better than 22 when Ryan lost plse wait for Emerson polls

If we won the PVI by 5 not 1 Ryan would have won and DeWine would have won DeWine outpolled Vance by 20 that's split voting

[Fuzzy Bear]

My gut tells me slight lean to Brown to right now. Ohio republicans will (likely) be coming off of losing two high-profile ballot amendments going into '24. It's hard to understate what a bloody nose that will give them, and how much it will energize democrats. It's also likely that next November, these energized Ohio dems will have put a (real) gerrymandering reform amendment on the ballot and maybe a minimum wage increase amendment as well. Brown will tie himself to these, as any dem with two brain cells would.

You don't think Trump's coattails in winning the state would help the Republican challenger?

What has helped the GOP in this part of Ohio are its energy and trade policies.  This is a coal-driven area that has been slammed by the offshoring of our production jobs.  These numbers listed are, in effect, the Perot voters joining or rejoining the GOP. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is gonna be indicted again in GA so it's not a typical cycle
Trump is only leading Biden in certain polls and the reason for it is due to his primary bounce there is no primary polls which will fade

[Progressive Pessimist]

I still have some faith in Brown winning, especially against Moreno. I wouldn't go further than tossup in that circumstance, and you can bet that Democrats will spend more here than in 2022. It will be Brown's toughest fight ever, but he is just about the only Ohio Democrat who can win a statewide contest anymore.

[TDAS04]

It’s definitely possible that both Brown and Tester squeak by. In another thread I might have said “lean to likely R” for the Ohio Senate race, but that really isn’t the case at this point. Ohio is a more Republican state than not, but that doesn’t mean that a strong, incumbent Democrat can’t pull it off.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeWine isn't on the ballot l, DeWine outpolled Vance by 20 if we win the PVI by more than 1 Ryan and Barnes win

It's nothing but S019 and OSR whom are Doom on Brown chance and blue avatars we have to wait for Emerson polls not during the middle of a Debt Ceiling fight that shows bias towards Rs