What will the margin be in Florida?

[Heebie Jeebie]

About the same as 2020, Dems won't stay home. Trump gain a little more in Dade while Dems gain more in Seminole, Duval etc. Still, TX is a better bet for Biden.

This seems reasonable, but two points:

If Trump is the nominee, he will no longer enjoy the advantages of incumbency, which still seems to mean something, especially with Latino voters.  

If DeSantis is the nominees...well, when he served in Congress, he voted for a few different iterations of Paul Ryan’s budget framework. Those were votes to cut Pell Grants, cut SNAP, and cut discretionary spending across the board — less money for K-12 schools, for police grants and federal law enforcement, less of everything. And they were votes for replacing both traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage with a new kind of voucher program that would feature higher unit costs and reduced coverage over time.  You can duck those kind of votes when you're running for governor, but that record is going to be a lot more relevant during a presidential race.  How well will that voting record play in Florida?

LOL, Trump won Florida in 2020 DESPITE Republicans facing a 230,000 Registration Disadvantage.

According to the latest Registrations supplied by the Florida Divisions of Elections Republicans now have a 436,000+ lead. Now tell us how Democrats are going to make this up? They won't even if Trump is the Nominee and some Republicans skip the POTUS Race.

Unless by some miracle the Registrations turn around FLORIDA is gone for Democrats no matter who the GOP Nominee is.

Senator Rick Scott is already laughing his arse off given that he won narrowly in 2010, 2014 and 2018 and now enjoys a big Advantage.

A lot of Republican Statewide Candidates whether it is for Governor, Senator or row Offices will outrun Trump in 2024 I promise you that.
Voters will not elect Trump a 2nd Time but they heck will not elect a Democratic Trifecta again either given what the Washington Cartel named Biden, Harris, Pelosi & Schumer did from 2021-2022.

Exactly. Ds aren’t winning Florida anytime soon, especially if it’s Ronny D himself at the top of the ticket. Trump improving his ‘16 margin in FL back in 2020 was definitely indicative of a trend.

Indicative is that no high profile Democrat has announced a Senat Run to challenge Rick Scott. Prior to the 2022 Midterms Stephanie Murphy was talked about but given the margins especially in South Florida I doubt she runs.

The best chance Democrats had at a Statewide Win was against Marco Rubio last year. Val Demings, although she was very liberal, was a decent Candidate. Liberal Outside Groups like Moveon.org & Emilys List poured in some 60M $ into this thing and it wasn't even close. If a decent Candidate like Demings can't win who can then?

If you want to run in Florida Statewide you have to announce early bcuz you have to raise a lot of money especially against someone like Rick Scott who can self-finance and Florida is a very expensive State to run in Statewide as it has 5 maybe 6 different Media Markets.

No high profile Democrat has yet announced a run against Ted Cruz, either.  I don't think we should over-read this--we're still a year and a half away from election day.  As in Texas, whoever steps up to run in Florida shouldn't have any trouble raising money or quickly getting a robust campaign off the ground.  Plus, I think Scott is more vulnerable than Rubio was, and I think Murphy (if she runs) is a stronger candidate than Demings was.  I remain bullish on Democrats' odds.

Why would Stephanie Murphy even run? She quit the House because she could not hold her own House Seat, then blasted Pelosi & Schumer in an open-end for purging out Moderates because of their liberal agenda. Murphy isn't as a prolific fundraiser as Demings was which in fact was the Main Reason the DSCC recruited Demings to run against Rubio last year. Murphy would need a lot of outside help to make the Race competitive given that Senator Rick Scott can self finance his Campaign.

If you want me to make an educated guess I'd say that former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is more likely to run than Murphy.

Murphy quit the House because her district had been redrawn to her disadvantage--she was gerrymandered out.  She writes op-eds critical of Democratic leadership because she's a centrist and wants everyone to know it (at least in part because she still has political ambitions).  And Scott can self-finance, sure.  And he'll need to!  Rubio is bad, but he's also a lazy idiot and not someone most voters get worked up about.  Scott, on the other hand, is a comically villainous scumbag who literally released a detailed plan to gut Social Security and Medicare just a few months ago.  This is exactly the kind of thing Biden and the rest of the Democratic Party are chomping at the bit to run on.

[TodayJunior]

Trump by 5, which means it will swing R. While it won’t be anywhere near a 2022 blowout, midterms can be a sign of things to come (trend-wise) at the state level. I reference Az-Sen 2018, the closeness of Ga-Gov 2018, and fl-sen 2018 to name a few.

[2016]

About the same as 2020, Dems won't stay home. Trump gain a little more in Dade while Dems gain more in Seminole, Duval etc. Still, TX is a better bet for Biden.

This seems reasonable, but two points:

If Trump is the nominee, he will no longer enjoy the advantages of incumbency, which still seems to mean something, especially with Latino voters.  

If DeSantis is the nominees...well, when he served in Congress, he voted for a few different iterations of Paul Ryan’s budget framework. Those were votes to cut Pell Grants, cut SNAP, and cut discretionary spending across the board — less money for K-12 schools, for police grants and federal law enforcement, less of everything. And they were votes for replacing both traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage with a new kind of voucher program that would feature higher unit costs and reduced coverage over time.  You can duck those kind of votes when you're running for governor, but that record is going to be a lot more relevant during a presidential race.  How well will that voting record play in Florida?

LOL, Trump won Florida in 2020 DESPITE Republicans facing a 230,000 Registration Disadvantage.

According to the latest Registrations supplied by the Florida Divisions of Elections Republicans now have a 436,000+ lead. Now tell us how Democrats are going to make this up? They won't even if Trump is the Nominee and some Republicans skip the POTUS Race.

Unless by some miracle the Registrations turn around FLORIDA is gone for Democrats no matter who the GOP Nominee is.

Senator Rick Scott is already laughing his arse off given that he won narrowly in 2010, 2014 and 2018 and now enjoys a big Advantage.

A lot of Republican Statewide Candidates whether it is for Governor, Senator or row Offices will outrun Trump in 2024 I promise you that.
Voters will not elect Trump a 2nd Time but they heck will not elect a Democratic Trifecta again either given what the Washington Cartel named Biden, Harris, Pelosi & Schumer did from 2021-2022.

Exactly. Ds aren’t winning Florida anytime soon, especially if it’s Ronny D himself at the top of the ticket. Trump improving his ‘16 margin in FL back in 2020 was definitely indicative of a trend.

Indicative is that no high profile Democrat has announced a Senat Run to challenge Rick Scott. Prior to the 2022 Midterms Stephanie Murphy was talked about but given the margins especially in South Florida I doubt she runs.

The best chance Democrats had at a Statewide Win was against Marco Rubio last year. Val Demings, although she was very liberal, was a decent Candidate. Liberal Outside Groups like Moveon.org & Emilys List poured in some 60M $ into this thing and it wasn't even close. If a decent Candidate like Demings can't win who can then?

If you want to run in Florida Statewide you have to announce early bcuz you have to raise a lot of money especially against someone like Rick Scott who can self-finance and Florida is a very expensive State to run in Statewide as it has 5 maybe 6 different Media Markets.

No high profile Democrat has yet announced a run against Ted Cruz, either.  I don't think we should over-read this--we're still a year and a half away from election day.  As in Texas, whoever steps up to run in Florida shouldn't have any trouble raising money or quickly getting a robust campaign off the ground.  Plus, I think Scott is more vulnerable than Rubio was, and I think Murphy (if she runs) is a stronger candidate than Demings was.  I remain bullish on Democrats' odds.

Why would Stephanie Murphy even run? She quit the House because she could not hold her own House Seat, then blasted Pelosi & Schumer in an open-end for purging out Moderates because of their liberal agenda. Murphy isn't as a prolific fundraiser as Demings was which in fact was the Main Reason the DSCC recruited Demings to run against Rubio last year. Murphy would need a lot of outside help to make the Race competitive given that Senator Rick Scott can self finance his Campaign.

If you want me to make an educated guess I'd say that former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is more likely to run than Murphy.

Murphy quit the House because her district had been redrawn to her disadvantage--she was gerrymandered out.  She writes op-eds critical of Democratic leadership because she's a centrist and wants everyone to know it (at least in part because she still has political ambitions).  And Scott can self-finance, sure.  And he'll need to!  Rubio is bad, but he's also a lazy idiot and not someone most voters get worked up about.  Scott, on the other hand, is a comically villainous scumbag who literally released a detailed plan to gut Social Security and Medicare just a few months ago.  This is exactly the kind of thing Biden and the rest of the Democratic Party are chomping at the bit to run on.

Stop giving me that "CENTRIST TYPE OF CRAP". There are no longer Centrist Democrats in the House. The only two Centrists Democrats have left are Sinema and Manchin.

Murphy on Democrats
https://nypost.com/2022/03/18/rep-stephanie-murphy-slams-democrats-for-losing-ability-to-lead/