How many Obama-Trump voters go back to the Dems or don’t vote in 2028?

[BG-NY]

Been thinking about this. A lot of Obama’s voters dropped out of the electorate. 2022 PA kind of was a preview of this.

What happens to rural and WWC voters who went for Obama and switched to Trump after he’s off the ballot?

[Dr. MB]

Depends

If the Democrats nominate a candidate of the working class, like Williamson, and she runs for re-election in 2028, I assume most of them will.

However, if the Democrats nominate another candidate like Harris or Bloomberg who has no plans of actually implementing real socialist policies, some might see that the Democratic Party has become too neoliberal to even be a vehicle of protest anymore and just vote for whoever the Republican Party nominates.

Or they might be the sort of people who just don’t vote at all.

[Ferguson97]

Obama-Obama-Trump-Trump-Trump voters?

90% of them are never coming back. 9% of them are swing voters. The remaining 1% might come back. Might.

[BG-NY]

Obama-Obama-Trump-Trump-Trump voters?

90% of them are never coming back. 9% of them are swing voters. The remaining 1% might come back. Might.

The how do you explain 2022 PA-Sen?

[Ferguson97]

Obama-Obama-Trump-Trump-Trump voters?

90% of them are never coming back. 9% of them are swing voters. The remaining 1% might come back. Might.

The how do you explain 2022 PA-Sen?

Two things.

1. Some people may be swing voters for Senate/governor, but never the President.

2. Republican turnout wasn't an issue, Dems persuaded independents and swing voters for the most part.

[BG-NY]

Obama-Obama-Trump-Trump-Trump voters?

90% of them are never coming back. 9% of them are swing voters. The remaining 1% might come back. Might.

The how do you explain 2022 PA-Sen?

Two things.

1. Some people may be swing voters for Senate/governor, but never the President.

2. Republican turnout wasn't an issue, Dems persuaded independents and swing voters for the most part.

Mastriano and Oz underachieved Trump's margins in central PA by double digits, no?

[Tekken_Guy]

Don’t you mean 2024? Because there’s no guarantee he’ll be the nominee in 2024.

There’s also no guarantee he won’t be the nominee in 2028 if he loses in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LoL it's a 303 map with wave insurance FL, SC and NC and OH aren't enshrined in the Constitution as Perm R states I have a gut feeling g now that we lose MT and WV and since DeWine and Desantis want a 6 WK ban on Abortion and MO has Abortion rights we can win AZ, OH, MO and FL instead of MT and WV which are white states, I said this already that 303 isn't enshrined in Constitution, that's why Trump and Desantis are tied in an Emerson poll not in TX but yes FL and we have seen polls tied in NC and no OH polls but DeWine isn't on the ballot this time to help RS and he won by 25 303 map with wave insurance is precisely that

[Vosem]

Obama-Obama-Trump-Trump-Trump voters?

90% of them are never coming back. 9% of them are swing voters. The remaining 1% might come back. Might.

The how do you explain 2022 PA-Sen?

This is the 2016-->2022 swing map for PA-Sen; I'm not sure it looks like an example of a Democratic candidate strong in Obama/Trump areas. Four out of five Obama '08/Trump '20 counties swung towards Oz. (Four of the six counties to swing towards Hillary by margin are the darkest Democratic-swing color. Allegheny and Centre are still moving hard away from him.)

[Pres Mike]

Most won't

Some Obama-Trump voters only voted Democrat once, 2008. While this was mostly in the Mid West, I have met some folks here in the south who voted for Obama because of the "magic" only to go back to normal voting patterns.

The Obama-Obama-Trump-Trump voter? They are gone. Part of the trend of white working class moving towards Republicans. It was always going to happen sooner or latter.

If a Obama-Trump voter didn't vote BIDEN in 2020, than they aren't voting for any other Democrat. Biden is white working class. He was Obama VP!

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Obama-Obama-Trump-Trump-Trump voters?

90% of them are never coming back. 9% of them are swing voters. The remaining 1% might come back. Might.

The how do you explain 2022 PA-Sen?

This is the 2016-->2022 swing map for PA-Sen; I'm not sure it looks like an example of a Democratic candidate strong in Obama/Trump areas. Four out of five Obama '08/Trump '20 counties swung towards Oz. (Four of the six counties to swing towards Hillary by margin are the darkest Democratic-swing color. Allegheny and Centre are still moving hard away from him.)

Katie McGuinty significantly outperformed Hillary Clinton in western Pennsylvania and significantly underperformed her in SEPA so this is either laziness or sophistry. You simply do not have enough respect for your boy, Pat Toomey, and his ability to repulse working class people and attract the votes of smarmy well-heeled country club members who hate Trump!

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Obama-Obama-Trump-Trump-Trump voters?

90% of them are never coming back. 9% of them are swing voters. The remaining 1% might come back. Might.

The how do you explain 2022 PA-Sen?

Two things.

1. Some people may be swing voters for Senate/governor, but never the President.

2. Republican turnout wasn't an issue, Dems persuaded independents and swing voters for the most part.

Republican turnout wasn't an issue for established Republican voters, but Republicans who became Republicans because of Trump didn't show up at all basically. This can be seen in Wisconsin's driftless, NW Ohio, much of Michigan and rural PA as well as basically all of Appalachia.