Rudy v Hillary -> Shifting swing states?

[zorkpolitics]

Michael Barone finds having two New Yorkers running in 2008 sets up some significant shifts in swing states for 2008:
The Northeast and upper midwest move into play for Rudy, the border states and lower midwest move into play for Hillary.


http://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/baroneblog/archives/070223/newt_vs_hillary.htm

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This guy is a fool, Rhode Island and Vermont aren't going to be in play.

[Reaganfan]

Actually, polls a few months back showed that even in a McCain vs. Hillary race, Vermont came into play.

[DownWithTheLeft]

This guy is a fool, Rhode Island and Vermont aren't going to be in play.

Actually he makes a good point saying that the Italian American population is what puts it in play.  Hard to see it go GOP, but it could

[Keystone Phil]

This guy is a fool, Rhode Island and Vermont aren't going to be in play.

Actually he makes a good point saying that the Italian American population is what puts it in play.  Hard to see it go GOP, but it could

No, it still wouldn't be in play.

[elcorazon]

Rudy vs. anybody shifts the swing states.  Rudy's got a ton o appeal in strong Dem territory of the northeast U.S.  He's got a lot of negatives for some of the true Republicans in the South and parts of the West.

I doubt too many of the strongest red or blue states switch, but I can certainly see New Jersey and Pennsylvania, maybe even Connecticut and Delaware coming into play for Giuliani.  Depending on the Dem, NC, VA, Tenn, Ark, even Kentucky could be swinging... I wonder if Indiana could also become a swing state.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Rudy vs. anybody shifts the swing states.  Rudy's got a ton o appeal in strong Dem territory of the northeast U.S.  He's got a lot of negatives for some of the true Republicans in the South and parts of the West.

I doubt too many of the strongest red or blue states switch, but I can certainly see New Jersey and Pennsylvania, maybe even Connecticut and Delaware coming into play for Giuliani.  Depending on the Dem, NC, VA, Tenn, Ark, even Kentucky could be swinging... I wonder if Indiana could also become a swing state.

I think Rudy is much more of a plus in places like FL, PA and OH, than he is a minus in any Southern state.  In a close election, I can't see Rudy losing any Southern state unless the state is a home state for the Dem ticket.

[opebo]

Rudy vs. anybody shifts the swing states.  Rudy's got a ton o appeal in strong Dem territory of the northeast U.S.  He's got a lot of negatives for some of the true Republicans in the South and parts of the West.

I doubt too many of the strongest red or blue states switch, but I can certainly see New Jersey and Pennsylvania, maybe even Connecticut and Delaware coming into play for Giuliani.  Depending on the Dem, NC, VA, Tenn, Ark, even Kentucky could be swinging... I wonder if Indiana could also become a swing state.

Not a chance.  His moment has passed - he's just another 9/11 obsessed, 'terrorism' terrorist, war-monger Republican now.  PA, NJ, CT, DE have all seen their peak of 'national security' GOP swing in 2004.  People are quite literally tired of all those lies and errors now, and not just in the Northeast.

[Reaganfan]

Rudy vs. anybody shifts the swing states.  Rudy's got a ton o appeal in strong Dem territory of the northeast U.S.  He's got a lot of negatives for some of the true Republicans in the South and parts of the West.

I doubt too many of the strongest red or blue states switch, but I can certainly see New Jersey and Pennsylvania, maybe even Connecticut and Delaware coming into play for Giuliani.  Depending on the Dem, NC, VA, Tenn, Ark, even Kentucky could be swinging... I wonder if Indiana could also become a swing state.

Not a chance.  His moment has passed - he's just another 9/11 obsessed, 'terrorism' terrorist, war-monger Republican now.  PA, NJ, CT, DE have all seen their peak of 'national security' GOP swing in 2004.  People are quite literally tired of all those lies and errors now, and not just in the Northeast.

Oh yes, the "Lies and Errors" of...

Attack in NYC - 2/26/93
Attack in Sauda Arabia - 6/25/96
Attack in Yemen - 10/12/00
Attack in NYC/D.C. - 9/11/01
Attack in Bali - 10/12/02
Attack in Madrid, Spain - 3/11/04
Attack in London, England - 7/7/05
Thwarted transatlantic attack - 8/16/06

Yes...just a bunch of lies. Are you serious?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

You forgot about Casablanca and Riyadh.

The fact is they were examples of the WEAKNESS of the policy, not the strength. Ok, maybe their communications and logistics were thrown out by Afghanistan... good thing, but just because there were not 9/11 style attacks since... and these smaller ones show that Al Qaeda has adapted and more dangerous has allowed its sattelites to become more autonomous.

These attacks show that we are not fighting this war properly with the distraction of Iraq (yes... distraction). One of my oldest friends was killed in the Bali attack... so what I say is not pulled from where the sun don't shine. I want these monsters to be stopped and their religion of jihad to be quashed.

This is like fighting a bushfire with gasoline. The same mistake by the US in Vietnam is being made with this far more dangerous war. When you don't understand your enemy, you'll never defeat them. When people think that people will stop because you have bigger guns is WRONG. This is a war first and foremost of IDEAS, when you respond with nothing but this - those ideas spread.

ah hem... but on topic.

The only solid blue states that are risk from Giuliani are NJ, DE and CT - assuming a Clinton candidacy. Edwards will have more trouble here... but populism will help him in the mid-west and the upper south.

[agcatter]

RI and Vermont will remain safe Democratic states although Rudi does slightly better there than Bush.  Not enough to putt them in play.  Connecticut, NJ, and Pennsylvania will be marginally in play because Rudy does better in the northeastern suburbs than Bush vs Kerry.  I'm certain Rudy runs a lot better in the Philly suburbs than Bush did in 2004.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Vermont ever votes for a Republican, it sure as hell won't be one with Rudy's views on gun control.

Saying Rudy could win RI on the Italian-American factor is like saying I could win North and South Dakota in a race because of the Scandinavian-American factor. Just not going to happen. Rudy would gain in NJ, CT and NY but wouldn't win any of them, and he's not even coming close in Massachusetts.

And how is the Midwest more favorable to Rudy? What do we have to like about an anti-gun, pro-war, economically rightist Republican? Nothing. This guy is delusional.

[Rob]

Michael Barone is a major-league hack. This guy has made so many biased and just plain wrong assertions that it's impossible to take him seriously.

Case in point: what happened to that new Republican majority?