FOX News worried that its election model was... right and timely... say it's bad for business

[Torie]

You don't call a state until you are not only beyond a reasonable doubt, but near certainty, with the only chance of error a miscount.

Well, but you don't know that they weren't.

Sure Fox may have been certain because of algorithmic errors programmed into their system. But it is statistically impossible.

[emailking]

You don't call a state until you are not only beyond a reasonable doubt, but near certainty, with the only chance of error a miscount.

Well, but you don't know that they weren't.

Sure Fox may have been certain because of algorithmic errors programmed into their system. But it is statistically impossible.

What is statistically impossible?

[Torie]

You don't call a state until you are not only beyond a reasonable doubt, but near certainty, with the only chance of error a miscount.

Well, but you don't know that they weren't.

Sure Fox may have been certain because of algorithmic errors programmed into their system. But it is statistically impossible.

What is statistically impossible?

That when the call was made, it was statistically impossible that the call would turn out wrong absent a counting error of some magnitude.

[emailking]

I'm not sure how that's supposed to be a criticism of them. Maybe it's not, I don't knnow.

Yes when they made the call, they had a model that showed it was statistically impossible (or really, virtually statistically impossible) that the result could flip. And that's why they made the call. That's when you make the call.

[Crumpets]

Does anyone know if Fox and AP used the same projection method? I can buy this being an error if it was one system that happened to get it right after a premature call, but if both Fox and AP came to the same conclusion independently, I have to imagine there was something very clear in the numbers pointing to a Biden victory and only a Biden victory, even despite the close margin.

[Torie]

Does anyone know if Fox and AP used the same projection method? I can buy this being an error if it was one system that happened to get it right after a premature call, but if both Fox and AP came to the same conclusion independently, I have to imagine there was something very clear in the numbers pointing to a Biden victory and only a Biden victory, even despite the close margin.

 AP lagged Fox by perhaps a day as I recall.

[emailking]

I recall they were using the same data, but they don't make the calls together.