Huckabee gives it until September

[YRABNNRM]

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http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/02/06/huckabee_will_give_it_six_months.html

I may not agree with him on many of the issues but I hope he'll stay in the race for the long run. The more choices the better and I think he's a fantastic candidate (although I probably wouldn't support him).

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Huckabee can't pick up support if he is already talking about an exit.  And his exit would likely help Brownback.

[Verily]

Sounds like Huckabee won't be running. You can't make a dramatic late entrance if no one knows who you are.

[Mr. Morden]

Sounds like Huckabee won't be running. You can't make a dramatic late entrance if no one knows who you are.

Huh?  He won't be making a late entrance, as he's effectively already in the race (an exploratory committee is basically a declaration of candidacy).  He's just saying that if he doesn't gain ground by the fall, he'll likely drop out.

[YRABNNRM]

I expect we'll see the same thing with other candidates, such as Thompson, Gilmore and possibly Hunter.

[Mr. Morden]

I expect we'll see the same thing with other candidates, such as Thompson, Gilmore and possibly Hunter.

Yeah, except that in recent years, most of these longshot candidates have actually been sticking it out until at least after the Iowa caucuses....well past the point at which it becomes obvious that they're not going to win.  2000 was a bit of an exception, as many of the longshots got out by the fall of '99, but in both '96 and '04, most of the longshots stayed in really late.  At one point, there were 10 Democrats running for the '04 nomination, and only two of them (Bob Graham and Carol Moseley-Braun) dropped out before the Iowa caucus.

[Verily]

Sounds like Huckabee won't be running. You can't make a dramatic late entrance if no one knows who you are.

Huh?  He won't be making a late entrance, as he's effectively already in the race (an exploratory committee is basically a declaration of candidacy).  He's just saying that if he doesn't gain ground by the fall, he'll likely drop out.

Oh, I was misunderstanding it. I thought he meant that he wouldn't be formally announcing his candidacy until Sptember.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sounds like Huckabee won't be running. You can't make a dramatic late entrance if no one knows who you are.

Huh?  He won't be making a late entrance, as he's effectively already in the race (an exploratory committee is basically a declaration of candidacy).  He's just saying that if he doesn't gain ground by the fall, he'll likely drop out.

Didn't Guiliani create an exploratory committee for the 2000 Senate race?

[Mr. Morden]

Didn't Guiliani create an exploratory committee for the 2000 Senate race?

I don't remember.  I just remember that he never actually declared.

In any case, the whole business of when someone is a candidate and when they are not is rather fishy.  Once you form an exploratory committee, the media tends to treat you as if you're a candidate, and, usually, you're also behaving as if you're a candidate (giving stump speeches, appearing in debates, etc.), even if you haven't officially declared your candidacy.  On the other hand, you have folks like Wesley Clark, who hasn't even announced an exploratory committee, but is still planning on participating in things like candidate forums(!).  It doesn't make much sense.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Huckabee did pick up a reasonably significant support from Mike Campbell today.  It would have been even more significant had Campbell actually won the Lt. Governor's race, but still, I think Huckabee can be confident now that he will be able to put together a credible campaign organization in South Carolina.  Whether it will be a competent one remains to be seen tho.