My new prediction, now that Edwards is the pick....

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Kerry/Edwards- 259
Bush/Cheney-   188
Tossup-               91

I think Edwards is just a huge boost to the Kerry campaign.  

[MODU]

Could be, but I just don't see Edwards having that much of an impact on VA.  Someone else had indicated that the mid-atlantic states basically assumed Edwards would be the VP pick, and that has been equated into the polling.  True, NC will be a much tighter race, but I don't think it would be enough to tip it to Kerry.

Anyway, good prediction.

[ATFFL]

I mostly agree on this, though Wisconsin and Oregon may be pushing it a bit much as solid Kerry states, more likely tossups.

Pennsylvania remains in play for Bush, but is a harder sell with Edwards on the ticket.  I think he helps more in PA than in NC.

[The Dowager Mod]

heres my newest one

[ilikeverin]

[12th Doctor]

Hate to spoil the love fest with a healthy dose of reality, but there is no way in Hell that Edwards will pull Virginia and North Carolina, he will have an effect in West Virginia, but a limited one and he will probably have negative consequences in New Jersey and South-eastern PA.  Like-wise, Oregon is not a big fair trade states so all this talk about tariffs and "two Americas" will have a negative effect there.  In the mean time, Edwards facade will fall off and he will start to look just as inept as Quayle.  There is a ton of dirt to dig up on this guy, like the time he went to court and "mimicked" the voice of a fetus while in the womb, thus implying that the fetus is a person.  That won't go over well with the NOW gals.  You guys think that you have stubled into Heaven, you have stumbled into a trap.

[AuH2O]

Where Edwards helps: a little in NC. A little in Michigan MAYBE, or other areas receptive to his protectionist views. And by a little I mean a few thousand votes total... probably less than 1/10th of 1%.

That is it. ZERO effect in VA. ZERO effect in SC. Heck maybe even a negative effect in Virginia... not to mention he does nothing to help in PA, MO, OR, etc.

Granted, the VP is not real important. But at least Gephardt COULD have helped in Missouri (though I doubt it) and Vilsack would have sealed Iowa tight. Edwards is not a bad pick, but in a close election he is of little utility.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Hate to spoil the love fest with a healthy dose of reality, but there is no way in Hell that Edwards will pull Virginia and North Carolina, he will have an effect in West Virginia, but a limited one and he will probably have negative consequences in New Jersey and South-eastern PA.  Like-wise, Oregon is not a big fair trade states so all this talk about tariffs and "two Americas" will have a negative effect there.  In the mean time, Edwards facade will fall off and he will start to look just as inept as Quayle.  There is a ton of dirt to dig up on this guy, like the time he went to court and "mimicked" the voice of a fetus while in the womb, thus implying that the fetus is a person.  That won't go over well with the NOW gals.  You guys think that you have stubled into Heaven, you have stumbled into a trap.

I don't think Edwards will be talking at all about tariffs or protectionism.  This was a tactic he used to distinguish himself from Kerry in the primary; I don't imagine it will be incorporated into Kerry's campaign.

[King]

Washington, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Oregon are just way too tossup for edwards to have any effect.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The only state shifted colors because of Edwards in my pick was Florida from a Bush tossup to an Kerry tossup.  Edwards is likely to skew the voting demographic younger than it would have been, and the issue that Bush is using to try and nail down Florida, the Cuban Embargo, is actually viewed more as a megative than as a positive by young Cuban-Americans.  If Bush keep pitching that issue like he has been, the Cuban-American community is likely to have the largest age gap of any of the ethnic communities.

[Schmitz in 1972]

If the past tells us anything a ticket with two guys with the same first name is bad. This has occured on a major ticket 5 times previously

1792: Dem-Rep ticket George Washington and George Clinton lose to Federalist ticker George Washington and John Adams

1824: Dem-Rep ticket John Quincy Adams and John Calhoun win on a miraculous series of events

1864: Democratic ticket George McClellan and George Pendleton lose to Republican ticket Abraham Lincoln and Andrew Johnson - by a landslide

1892: People's ticket James Weaver and James Field lose to Democratic ticket Grover Cleveland and Adlai Stevenson - by a landslide

1916: Republican ticket Charles Evans Hughes and Charles Fairbanks lose to Democratic ticket Woodrow Wilson and Thomas Marshall

Out of the five times only once did the ticket win, and that was in the most atypical election ever

[PBrunsel]

History has shown '04 years are good for incumbents.

1804: President Thomas Jefferson defeates Charles C. Pinckey in a landslide:

Jefferson: 162 Electoral Votes

Pinckney: 14 Electoral Votes


1904: President Theodore Roosevelt defates Alton B. Parker in a landslide.

Roosevelt: 336 Electoral Votes

Parker: 140 Electoral Votes

[12th Doctor]

Hate to spoil the love fest with a healthy dose of reality, but there is no way in Hell that Edwards will pull Virginia and North Carolina, he will have an effect in West Virginia, but a limited one and he will probably have negative consequences in New Jersey and South-eastern PA.  Like-wise, Oregon is not a big fair trade states so all this talk about tariffs and "two Americas" will have a negative effect there.  In the mean time, Edwards facade will fall off and he will start to look just as inept as Quayle.  There is a ton of dirt to dig up on this guy, like the time he went to court and "mimicked" the voice of a fetus while in the womb, thus implying that the fetus is a person.  That won't go over well with the NOW gals.  You guys think that you have stubled into Heaven, you have stumbled into a trap.

I don't think Edwards will be talking at all about tariffs or protectionism.  This was a tactic he used to distinguish himself from Kerry in the primary; I don't imagine it will be incorporated into Kerry's campaign.

Then in that case the people who supported Edwards on those issues in places like southern Ohio will get pissed and not vote for him.  It's lose/lose.

[12th Doctor]

History has shown '04 years are good for incumbents.

1804: President Thomas Jefferson defeates Charles C. Pinckey in a landslide:

Jefferson: 162 Electoral Votes

Pinckney: 14 Electoral Votes


1904: President Theodore Roosevelt defates Alton B. Parker in a landslide.

Roosevelt: 336 Electoral Votes

Parker: 140 Electoral Votes

And the award for the most useless analysis of the year, goes to....

[millwx]

And the award for the most useless analysis of the year, goes to....

Are you sure, Supersoulty?  The one about Prez and VP candidates with the same first name was pretty good too...  You've got to at least give it a close runner up.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

History has shown '04 years are good for incumbents.

1804: President Thomas Jefferson defeates Charles C. Pinckey in a landslide:

Jefferson: 162 Electoral Votes

Pinckney: 14 Electoral Votes


1904: President Theodore Roosevelt defates Alton B. Parker in a landslide.

Roosevelt: 336 Electoral Votes

Parker: 140 Electoral Votes

Every year ending in 4 in the 20th century was a landslide for the incumbent party.  But it is not the 20th century any more.

[© tweed]

I'll update my snapshot once I have enough information to do so.

[TeePee4Prez]

Hate to spoil the love fest with a healthy dose of reality, but there is no way in Hell that Edwards will pull Virginia and North Carolina, he will have an effect in West Virginia, but a limited one and he will probably have negative consequences in New Jersey and South-eastern PA.  Like-wise, Oregon is not a big fair trade states so all this talk about tariffs and "two Americas" will have a negative effect there.  In the mean time, Edwards facade will fall off and he will start to look just as inept as Quayle.  There is a ton of dirt to dig up on this guy, like the time he went to court and "mimicked" the voice of a fetus while in the womb, thus implying that the fetus is a person.  That won't go over well with the NOW gals.  You guys think that you have stubled into Heaven, you have stumbled into a trap.

Uhh, you don't knwo Southeast PA and New Jersey nowhere near as well as I do.  His effect on the Philly suburbs will  be small, but positive because of the upper middle class soccer moms and in Northeast Philly, it may have a HUGE boost because of largely pro- protectionist older people and unions.  New Jersey is also an industrial state as well.  Effect will be positive in the Philadelphia media market.. you can be sure of that!