Post 2024, there may be no Dem Senators from Trump 2020 states.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden and Trump both won 25 states each in 2020.

There are only 3 Trump state Dem Senators at this point; Joe Manchin (WV), Jon Tester (MT), and Sherrod Brown (OH), all of whom are in for very rough re-election fights to say the least.

Interestingly enough, after the 2022 elections, there are only 2 R Senators from Biden states, Susan Collins (ME), and Ron Johnson (WI).

This also means theoretically, post-2022 you could have an outcome where the only split delegation is Maine, if Rs gain WV, OH, MT, and WI, and nothing else.

It's amazing how much Senate elections are really converging with partisanship.

[S019]

The likeliest D Senator from a Trump 2020 state will be whoever goes up against Cruz not any of the D incumbents (hot take)

[Person Man]

We were that close to having no blue state Senate Republicans.

[Xing]

I would doubt that Baldwin goes down that easily. I think there’s a decent chance she wins even at the same time as Trump narrowly flips WI. I’d also say that Rosen is probably a bit more likely to lose. It is possible, of course, that only MT/OH/WV flip, the map ends up almost the same as 2020 (maybe NC flips), and thus you still end up with no Trump state Democratic Senators.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden and Trump both won 25 states each in 2020.

There are only 3 Trump state Dem Senators at this point; Joe Manchin (WV), Jon Tester (MT), and Sherrod Brown (OH), all of whom are in for very rough re-election fights to say the least.

Interestingly enough, after the 2022 elections, there are only 2 R Senators from Biden states, Susan Collins (ME), and Ron Johnson (WI).

This also means theoretically, post-2022 you could have an outcome where the only split delegation is Maine, if Rs gain WV, OH, MT, and WI, and nothing else.

It's amazing how much Senate elections are really converging with partisanship.

You realize we won KS GOV right even though it's a Trump plus 20 state right

[Skill and Chance]

This makes it seem like the Dem senate disadvantage is overrated, provided Arizona and Georgia keep moving left.  Sure, they could lose Baldwin or Rosen, but they could also snag a seat in Texas or NC.

[smoltchanov]

Biden and Trump both won 25 states each in 2020.

There are only 3 Trump state Dem Senators at this point; Joe Manchin (WV), Jon Tester (MT), and Sherrod Brown (OH), all of whom are in for very rough re-election fights to say the least.

Interestingly enough, after the 2022 elections, there are only 2 R Senators from Biden states, Susan Collins (ME), and Ron Johnson (WI).

This also means theoretically, post-2022 you could have an outcome where the only split delegation is Maine, if Rs gain WV, OH, MT, and WI, and nothing else.

It's amazing how much Senate elections are really converging with partisanship.

IMHO - that's not bad, but - extremely bad. In short (as i have said in other threads) there are two about equal in population "Americas", which have very little in common. I will be very surprised if it will not lead to very serious political consequences in 20-25 years....

[S019]

This makes it seem like the Dem senate disadvantage is overrated, provided Arizona and Georgia keep moving left.  Sure, they could lose Baldwin or Rosen, but they could also snag a seat in Texas or NC.

North Carolina has no seats up in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stein is leading NC and we haven't seen any KY Gov poll, we still can win red states as close as FL is now in polls Matthew Sancrainte can upset Scott, OH and FL aren't Voting 20% right of nation and we have John Love we only lost OH by 6 pts if Ryan ran in 24 he would win

As a rule of thumb you have to win two consecutive Edays by double digits in order for a purple state to be red and FL, OH, NC are still purple IA is no longer a purple state and hopefully SC becomes one

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's also noteworthy that every Prez have increased their EC vote total except 2004/2012 but OBAMA won a wave insurance map anyways, FL, NC and AZ, WI, PA and WI we're battlegrounds in 2020 and Biden is leading Trump in FL

It's very likely since Biden polls are on the incline not decline due to Warnock winning he will win a wave insuranceap meaning OH, MT we can afford to lose Syjema to Gallego and Manchin to JUSTICE

[Mr.Phips]

This makes it seem like the Dem senate disadvantage is overrated, provided Arizona and Georgia keep moving left.  Sure, they could lose Baldwin or Rosen, but they could also snag a seat in Texas or NC.

North Carolina has no seats up in 2024.

Yep Dems keep having the problem of having the NC seats not come up in Dem wave years.  Last time it happened was 2008.  And before that 1986.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This makes it seem like the Dem senate disadvantage is overrated, provided Arizona and Georgia keep moving left.  Sure, they could lose Baldwin or Rosen, but they could also snag a seat in Texas or NC.

North Carolina has no seats up in 2024.

Yep Dems keep having the problem of having the NC seats not come up in Dem wave years.  Last time it happened was 2008.  And before that 1986.

It was a midterm yr and 2008 was a Prez Eday if Beasley, Ryan and DEMINGS were running in 24 rather than 22 they would win that's why Tester, Manchin and Brown stand a chance due to 2012 we won OH, MT and WV with a 4 pt PVI we lost the PVI 22 it's likely we are gonna win the PVI and Stein is Lea by 2 this early he was down by 6 in August

I just said a Prez increases his margin in a Prez race except for 2004/2012 and Prez Obama won with 241RH

Gas prices are 3.75

The AL Doug Jones analogy doesn't work in OH, MT and WVwe still have a D Gov in KS if Doug Jones analogy worked all the users predicted Laura Kelly to lose, and more over with an RH the WV pipeline is likely to pass if we still had a D Speaker it would fail all the Rs are gonna vote for the Debt Ceiling because tax cuts and Border Wall are likely to be in it

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm not convinced Brown is headed for defeat, tbh. I still consider him slightly favored for 2024. Even if OH is Likely/Safe R at the presidential level, Brown can still hang on. Dude has a strong local brand and the GOP almost certainly nominates a weirdo.

[GALeftist]

I think in the aggregate chances are probably good that Ds either hold OH, hold MT, or flip TX, but probably not the modal outcome if I had to guess. Need to see some data first tho