Is this prediction market on same-sex marriage over or undervalued?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://manifold.markets/BRTD/will-any-state-pass-a-ban-on-samese

[DaleCooper]

It's probably pretty accurate.

[Aurelius]

Undervalued but only slightly. I'd put it around 15% myself. Alabama feels like the most likely contender by far.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just kind of surprised how that site seems to totally split from here as to how many here told us that Obergefell was already a dead decision (which of course can only be overturned if any state does so.) Like I remember this.

Bunch of that Republican so-called support for gay marriage was viewing it as a fait accompli. That's clearly no longer the case. Besides, I submit the Republican legiators are tangibly more radical nowadays than most of their constituents.

At 55% support, it's really really easy to see Deep South State or someplace like Idaho voting to prohibit gay marriage within the next couple years.

Think about it. After this ruling what's the likelihood that some Ultra conservative state house rep or state senator introduces such a bill. At that point, what are the odds that the Republican legislative leadership are going to bow to religious right pressure to permit a vote on the bill? At that point, how many of these GOP legislators want to risk a primary challenge by voting no? Anywhere near enough to keep a bill from passing even with unanimous Democratic opposition? I doubt it.

[Ferguson97]

Just kind of surprised how that site seems to totally split from here as to how many here told us that Obergefell was already a dead decision (which of course can only be overturned if any state does so.) Like I remember this.

I mean “will Obergefell be overturned” is a very different question from “will a state pass a gay marriage ban”.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just kind of surprised how that site seems to totally split from here as to how many here told us that Obergefell was already a dead decision (which of course can only be overturned if any state does so.) Like I remember this.

I mean “will Obergefell be overturned” is a very different question from “will a state pass a gay marriage ban”.

Yes but the former can't happen without the latter. A state would have to pass such a ban to even create such a case to make it to the SCOTUS to begin with.