Megathread for swing and trend maps

[Crumpets]

I'm probably going to make a couple of these over time without any specific states, offices, or years in mind, so I figured I'd make a megathread to put them in and anyone else who wants to join in can feel free.

Starting with the current 2020 president -> 2022 Senate swing map for Washington State (which will definitely change as more results come in)



Looks like the 2020 trends for Hispanics might have finally caught up to Washington, which was strangely immune two years ago, but also still lots of votes to count.

[Crumpets]

National 2020 President -> 2022 Senate swing map



For Alaska and Louisiana, I added together all Republican and Democratic candidates and took the margin between those totals.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

National 2020 President -> 2022 Senate swing map



For Alaska and Louisiana, I added together all Republican and Democratic candidates and took the margin between those totals.

Might as well flip Murkowski’s totals to the Dems, tbh.

[Crumpets]

Here's the swing in the Senate from 2010-2022:



* Alaska shows the swing to Murkowski against her top Republican challenger
** In Utah, I counted McMullin as a Democrat
*** In Louisiana, I added up all the Democrats and all the Republicans respectively in the 2022 results
**** In Florida, I counted Crist as a Democrat in 2010 and added his result to the Democrat's

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

What color is which party

[ottermax]

I'm probably going to make a couple of these over time without any specific states, offices, or years in mind, so I figured I'd make a megathread to put them in and anyone else who wants to join in can feel free.

Starting with the current 2020 president -> 2022 Senate swing map for Washington State (which will definitely change as more results come in)



Looks like the 2020 trends for Hispanics might have finally caught up to Washington, which was strangely immune two years ago, but also still lots of votes to count.

Democrats didn't nominate any candidates to run in the new Hispanic majority LD... which doesn't surprise me. I remember asking the WA Dems in an election meeting about the strategy for reaching out to Latino voters and they flat out said "they don't vote; it's not worth our investment".

Nevertheless was there actually a swing in votes or a drop in turnout?

[Aurelius]

I'm probably going to make a couple of these over time without any specific states, offices, or years in mind, so I figured I'd make a megathread to put them in and anyone else who wants to join in can feel free.

Starting with the current 2020 president -> 2022 Senate swing map for Washington State (which will definitely change as more results come in)



Looks like the 2020 trends for Hispanics might have finally caught up to Washington, which was strangely immune two years ago, but also still lots of votes to count.

I wonder what's up with Skagit.

[Crumpets]

Democrats didn't nominate any candidates to run in the new Hispanic majority LD... which doesn't surprise me. I remember asking the WA Dems in an election meeting about the strategy for reaching out to Latino voters and they flat out said "they don't vote; it's not worth our investment".

Nevertheless was there actually a swing in votes or a drop in turnout?

I wonder what's up with Skagit.

This should answer both of your questions: We've now got all of the vote in, and it looks like the late returns favored Smiley pretty much everywhere except in a couple of counties in the southeast of the state, which has made the map much more even overall.



Comparing this to the %Hispanic population from the census, it's clear there's a lot of overlap between areas where Smiley improved on Trump and where Hispanics live, with Whitman and Kittitas Counties being the only one where Hispanics clearly don't tell the whole picture. (Worth remembering Smiley is from Pasco, so there's probably some favorite daughter effect going on too.)



As to whether this is due to swinging voters or turnout, it looks like it's a combination of both. This map shows 2022 turnout as a % of 2020 turnout. You can see Yakima and Franklin had the biggest dropoff, which clearly corresponds to Smiley's improvement there. But at the same time, Adams County is both the most Hispanic county in the state, had a dropoff that was more in line with the rest of the state, and still swung strongly to Smiley, so turnout isn't the whole answer either. (Although Adams and Grant Counties still had the 3rd and 4th biggest dropoffs statewide from 2020 respectively.)




Here's that same turnout map with an exaggerated color scale:

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

2020 House -> 2022 House by state, "after accounting for uncontested races"
https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1596535191664611328

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm probably going to make a couple of these over time without any specific states, offices, or years in mind, so I figured I'd make a megathread to put them in and anyone else who wants to join in can feel free.

Starting with the current 2020 president -> 2022 Senate swing map for Washington State (which will definitely change as more results come in)



Looks like the 2020 trends for Hispanics might have finally caught up to Washington, which was strangely immune two years ago, but also still lots of votes to count.

Democrats didn't nominate any candidates to run in the new Hispanic majority LD... which doesn't surprise me. I remember asking the WA Dems in an election meeting about the strategy for reaching out to Latino voters and they flat out said "they don't vote; it's not worth our investment".

Nevertheless was there actually a swing in votes or a drop in turnout?

Based on what we're seeing nationally and knowing Washington Hispanics can be a very flunky turnout group, I think it's moreso the latter but there could be some degree of persuasion involved. In general, it seems like a lot of lower turnout rural minority communities that Dems generally ignored had absolutely horrendous turnout. From what I saw did, Smiley didn't really do much to uniquely appeal to them either.

[Skill and Chance]

2020 House -> 2022 House by state, "after accounting for uncontested races"
https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1596535191664611328

Underscores the really good Dem vote distribution compared to recent history.  These are the trends they would want to see, except for NV/AZ of course and maybe VA down the line.

[It’s so Joever]

2020 House -> 2022 House by state, "after accounting for uncontested races"
https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1596535191664611328

So…white people.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Here's the swing in the Senate from 2010-2022:

https://i.ibb.co/YdJBTT6/2010-2022-Senate-swing-map.png

**** In Florida, I counted Christ as a Democrat in 2010 and added his result to the Democrat's

Emphasis added.

You heard it here first folks, proof that Jesus was a Democrat.  

[Crumpets]

Here's the swing in the Senate from 2010-2022:

https://i.ibb.co/YdJBTT6/2010-2022-Senate-swing-map.png

**** In Florida, I counted Christ as a Democrat in 2010 and added his result to the Democrat's

Emphasis added.

You heard it here first folks, proof that Jesus was a Democrat.  

He would have done better if the Dems hadn't annointed him in the primary.

[Florida Man for Crime]

2020 House -> 2022 House by state, "after accounting for uncontested races"
https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1596535191664611328

So…white people.

To me the way I would put it is more that it is confirmation that the shift of coalitions with Dems getting more support from college educated whites means that Dems will tend to do better in midterms in the future as long as that is the case.

And in particular, Dems will tend to do better in whiter states in midterms, because the electorate will be more college white and less non-college white. Whereas Dems will tend to have a relatively harder time in more minority dominated states because in midterms, although Dems will tend to benefit from higher college white turnout, they will still tend to be hurt by lower non-white turnout.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

2020 House -> 2022 House by state, "after accounting for uncontested races"
https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1596535191664611328

So…white people.

Doesn’t explain the divergence between WA and OR, especially since WA is noticeably less white than OR. I’m not even sure if college whites are a good enough explanation for the split either.

[ottermax]

2020 House -> 2022 House by state, "after accounting for uncontested races"
https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1596535191664611328

So…white people.

Doesn’t explain the divergence between WA and OR, especially since WA is noticeably less white than OR. I’m not even sure if college whites are a good enough explanation for the split either.

A large part of the divergence between WA and OR in the house is probably that the competitive gubernatorial election. Also the Portland bogeyman effect seemed very powerful (except in WA-03 but that might just be a candidate quality issue).
Also just in general the WA Dems seem more establishment and less ideological than the OR Dems, but that's just a personal perspective.

Finally, WA is more college-educated than OR and that could be a part of the split. But I also thing that the divide for 2022 may simply have come down to candidate quality in WA-03 and WA-08 overperforming, while the Republicans uniformly overperformed in Oregon seats.