Now that the campaign has started in Wales and Scotland

[Harry Hayfield]

This seems as good as place as any to place Scottish opinion polls (and the Welsh opinion poll we might get if we behave ourselves) and the forecast that those polls get. To help with the changes since 2003, these are the figures for the Scottish Parliament constituency and regional vote and the notional votes for the Welsh Assembly

Scottish Parliament Constituencies: Con 16.86%, Lab 35.15%, Lib Dem 15.59%, SNP 24.14%, SSP 6.29%, Ind 1.36%, Others 0.61%

Scottish Parliament Regionals: Con 15.49%, Lab 29.29%, Lib Dem 11.78%, SNP 20.86%, Green 6.90%, SSP 6.72%, Ind 1.42%, Pensioners 1.50%, SSCUP 1.50%, SLP 1.13%, UKIP 0.62%, Others 2.78%

National Assembly Notional Constituencies: Con 19.95%, Lab 40.00%, Lib Dem 14.12%, Plaid 21.16%, Forward Wales 0.77%, Ind 0.29%, UKIP 2.33%, Others 1.39%

National Assembly Notional Regionals: Con 19.15%, Lab 36.57%, Lib Dem 12.71%, Plaid 19.73%, UKIP 3.46%, Green 3.53%, Others 4.83%

[Peter]

Pardon my igonrance, but since Wales is using "notional constituencies", I preusme that this means that they are operating on the new Westminster constituencies has recently been agreed by the Boundary Commission. Whilst I imagine it is probably common sense, would anybody happen to have an official list of which new constituencies are in which Regions (and indeed if any of the Regions have subsequently changed borders).

[Harry Hayfield]

I do indeed have a list:

Mid and West Wales: Brecon and Radnorshire, Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion, Dwyfor, Meirionnydd, Llanelli, Montgomeryshire, Preseli, Pembrokeshire

North Wales: Aberconwy, Alyn and Deeside, Arfon, Clwyd South, Clwyd West, Delyn, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham, Ynys Môn

South Wales Central: Cardiff Central, Cardiff North, Cardiff South and Penarth, Cardiff West, Cynon Valley, Pontypridd, Rhondda, Vale of Glamorgan

South Wales East: Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Islwyn, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney, Monmouth, Newport East, Newport West, Torfaen

South Wales West: Aberavon, Bridgend, Gower, Neath, Ogmore, Swansea East, Swansea West

[Harry Hayfield]

Polling Company: Populus
Newspaper: The Times
Size of sample: 1,000
Date of sample: March 25 - 27th 2007

Constituency: Con 14% Lab 28% Lib Dem 15% SNP 38% Others 5%
Regional: Con 14% Lab 30% Lib Dem 14% SNP 35% Green 4% SSP 1% Others 2%

Constituency Forecast: Con 2 (-1) Lab 23 (-23) Lib Dem 12 (-1) SNP 36 (+27)
Regional Forecast: Con 16 (+2) Lab 19 (+15) Lib Dem 7 (+2) SNP 13 (-3) Green 1 (-6)

Totals: Con 18 (+1) Lab 42 (-8) Lib Dem 19 (+1) SNP 49 (+24) Green 1 (-6), SNP short by 16