Brown or Tester? Which Democratic incumbent is more likely to survive?

[TDAS04]

Tester’s floor is lower, but I think he’ll ultimately snatch a fourth narrow victory. I’m less optimistic about Brown, even though Ohio’s Senate race will almost certainly be very close.

[Sir Mohamed]

Tester’s floor is lower, but I think he’ll ultimately snatch a fourth narrow victory. I’m less optimistic about Brown, even though Ohio’s Senate race will almost certainly be very close.

Yup, that's pretty much my take as well.

That said, I expect both to lose in the end. These 2 seats and WV will flip, imho, with Dems making no gains since the map is horrible. Result is a 52-48 R senate, regardless of Biden's fate.

[SnowLabrador]

Brown, just because Ohio isn't as red as Montana.

[wnwnwn]

Dems should support both, and make both senators campaing in the competitive CDs.
Winning MT-01 is possible.

[Xing]

Tester has to overperform Biden by quite a bit more, and since Brown has a joke of an opponent, it's easier to see him winning, even if his race is probably still a Toss-Up at best.

[SnowLabrador]

Tester has to overperform Biden by quite a bit more, and since Brown has a joke of an opponent, it's easier to see him winning, even if his race is probably still a Toss-Up at best.

Not only that, but turnout in 2018 was extremely favorable for Democrats in Montana in a way it's unlikely to be in 2024. Brown's win in 2018 was far more based on persuasion.

[Ljube]

Tester is toast. He is the Cory Gardner of 2024.

[SnowLabrador]

Tester is toast. He is the Cory Gardner of 2024.

I could see him losing by a similar margin. My current prediction is Sheehy +7, but it could go higher if Biden's toxicity trickles down more.