Who is the most vulnerable congressperson in a primary aside from Bush/Bowman/Good?
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  Who is the most vulnerable congressperson in a primary aside from Bush/Bowman/Good?
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Tekken_Guy
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« on: June 05, 2024, 11:01:49 AM »

Who is the most vulnerable representative in a primary besides Bush, Bowman, or Good?
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Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2024, 09:09:52 PM »

It's gotta be Omar, right? She nearly lost last time, has the same opponent this time, and has continued to have typical scandals for her. Her district isn't tailored for her like Tlaib's is, either.

Boebert is probably a close second, but things seemed to have turned around for her a bit recently.
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wnwnwn
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« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2024, 09:26:51 PM »

Tlaib has lack in that any black state level legislator or major of his district wants to primary her (maybe to avoid trouble, maybe the party don´t want to lose arab voters, maybe they like her, who knows).
Omar's district is the core area of Minneapolis, where her progressive and somali base lives. Now, she will lost some "normie progressive" supporters from 2022 after the whole flag controversy, the "working for Somalia" thing and the war.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2024, 09:35:45 PM »

It's gotta be Omar, right? She nearly lost last time, has the same opponent this time, and has continued to have typical scandals for her. Her district isn't tailored for her like Tlaib's is, either.

Boebert is probably a close second, but things seemed to have turned around for her a bit recently.

Boebert is a pretty poor fit for her new district, a Freedom Caucus rep in a highly educated district. Only the Colorado GOP can screw up what should have been an easy victory for an establishment backbencher.
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leecannon
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« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2024, 10:12:59 PM »

I don’t buy Omar is more vulnerable, Samuels is running pretty much the exact same campaign he did last time. He was easily the most well funded challenger last cycle but still lost with a million dollars behind him.

Mace could be vulnerable to the right candidate, that is not Templeton

Frost is similar to Mace, theoretically vulnerable but no challengers

Thanedar is probably the most vulnerable. Hollier has been disqualified so it’ll be interesting to see were his money and support ends up.

Timmons in SC has a well funded challenger in Adam Morgan to his right, potentially an upset in sight.

Idk if you can call it a primary challenge but Newhouse could be in hot water
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