Do you think Kathy Hochul took her race for granted and therefore cost her party downballot?

[TML]

As we all know, although Kathy Hochul won her gubernatorial election as most of us expected, her margin of victory appears to be (pending the completion of the vote count) significantly narrower than the partisan lean of her state. When I examined the results of other downballot races in NY (e.g. US Congress, State Senate, State Assembly, etc.), I noticed that some Democratic candidates ended up losing (or winning by narrower-than-expected margins) races they were ostensibly favored to win leading up to Election Day. Thus, one theory I came up with to explain the NY election results (not that I necessarily endorse it) is as follows:

Hochul took her race for granted, thinking that she could cruise to an easy victory thanks to the partisan lean of her state, thereby allowing her opponent to achieve a greater vote share than expected, and her negative coattails and/or her opponent's coattails ended up costing many Democratic candidates in downballot races for US Congress, State Senate, and/or State Assembly.

Does anyone else think this theory has any validity?

[Orwell]

Blaming her seems like a cop-out for Democrats. Maybe Long Island and the other areas are just getting more conservative? We all agree she ran a bad campaign, but is a Republican shift anywhere implausible? Not as close as this election 52-47 (Off by less than a percent of my prediction of Hochul +6).

   We've seen Dems get stretched in these Northeast states a few times with "good" GOP candidates against them.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Or we could look at it the opposite way. New York was a state where, for example, abortion really wasn't on the ballot in a meaningful way, because the odds of a NY state legislature banning abortion is basically zero. And unlike in many other states, most NY Republicans weren't election deniers.

So the two things that seem to have helped the Democrats this cycle - abortion and Trump - neither were quite as relevant in New York. But other issues like inflation and crime, which play better for Republicans, were still relevant. In a way it could be argued that New York experienced the red wave that should have materialized nationwide, because the Democrats couldn't as effectively portray Zeldin and Pinion as election-denying authoritarian Trumpists who hate women.

I'm not from New York or even America so I'm mostly speculating here. Obviously Zeldin outperformed Pinion and congressional Republicans, suggesting that Hochul's unpopularity/poor campaign combined with Zeldin running a strong and high-profile campaign played a role. But I also think New York was a state where a red wave was allowed to happen by the fact that the same concerns that hurt the GOP elsewhere weren't as much of a factor here

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, Zeldin looks like Chris Sununu and almost won that's why Rs overperform but Gillibrand is on the ballot not  HOCHUL and we will win any NY Districts back along with VA 2

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

As we all know, although Kathy Hochul won her gubernatorial election as most of us expected, her margin of victory appears to be (pending the completion of the vote count) significantly narrower than the partisan lean of her state. When I examined the results of other downballot races in NY (e.g. US Congress, State Senate, State Assembly, etc.), I noticed that some Democratic candidates ended up losing (or winning by narrower-than-expected margins) races they were ostensibly favored to win leading up to Election Day. Thus, one theory I came up with to explain the NY election results (not that I necessarily endorse it) is as follows:

Hochul took her race for granted, thinking that she could cruise to an easy victory thanks to the partisan lean of her state, thereby allowing her opponent to achieve a greater vote share than expected, and her negative coattails and/or her opponent's coattails ended up costing many Democratic candidates in downballot races for US Congress, State Senate, and/or State Assembly.

Does anyone else think this theory has any validity?

I don't believe that Hochul "took her race for granted".

Hochul was an accidental Governor and a Democrat from upstate in a party that is OVERWHELMINGLY dominated by the party organizations in the 4 big counties in NYC (Kings, Queens, Bronx, and New York Counties).  Lots of NYC Democratic pols see the major statewide nominations as the province of NYC.  Having one (1) upstate Democrat in the Senate (Gillibrand), giving up the Governorship to another Upstater is galling.  Hochul had to first deal with the fact that Letitia James had ambitions to run for Governor, as did Jummane Williams (who ran a primary and lost).  It was impressive that she didn't allow herself to be shoved aside by other pols who had a combination of both some real "juice' and a sense of entitlement.

Zeldin was an impressive candidate who worked hard.  He had some coattails in areas he carried, something you don't always say about the losing candidate.  And he made real inroads.  Hochul should not be faulted for the campaign she ran; Zeldin's campaign was that good.

County   Margin   Votes   Percent of votes in% In
Suffolk   Zeldin +17   552,222   94%
Brooklyn   Hochul +43   530,251   >95%
Nassau   Zeldin +11   507,422   >95%
Manhattan   Hochul +64   422,667   93%
Queens   Hochul +26   412,068   93%
Erie   Hochul +6   333,870   87%
Westchester   Hochul +20   312,333   >95%
Monroe   Hochul +8   270,783   >95%
Bronx   Hochul +55   191,997   92%
Onondaga   Hochul +7   165,272   >95%
Staten Island   Zeldin +34   138,185   93%
Orange   Zeldin +12   121,093   >95%
Albany   Hochul +18   114,145   >95%
Dutchess   Zeldin +4   112,280   >95%
Rockland   Zeldin +12   106,919   >95%
Saratoga   Zeldin +8   102,133   >95%
Ulster   Hochul +14   76,017   >95%
Niagara   Zeldin +23   75,237   >95%
Oneida   Zeldin +32   72,052   >95%
Broome   Zeldin +13   66,479   >95%
Rensselaer   Zeldin +9   61,510   >95%
Schenectady   Hochul +0.81   52,640   94%
Ontario   Zeldin +13   45,280   >95%
Chautauqua   Zeldin +30   42,827   >95%
Putnam   Zeldin +21   40,567   >95%
Oswego   Zeldin +35   39,235   >95%
Steuben   Zeldin +44   33,989   >95%
Saint Lawrence   Zeldin +32   33,640   >95%
Tompkins   Hochul +44   33,637   >95%
Wayne   Zeldin +38   31,675   >95%
Jefferson   Zeldin +42   31,099   >95%
Columbia   Hochul +7   29,140   >95%
Warren   Zeldin +12   27,554   >95%
Chemung   Zeldin +32   27,140   >95%
Clinton   Zeldin +14   26,837   >95%
Cayuga   Zeldin +25   26,454   >95%
Cattaraugus   Zeldin +41   25,396   >95%
Madison   Zeldin +25   24,277   >95%
Livingston   Zeldin +34   23,873   >95%
Sullivan   Zeldin +21   23,803   >95%
Genesee   Zeldin +44   21,900   >95%
Herkimer   Zeldin +49   21,782   >95%
Otsego   Zeldin +20   21,414   >95%
Washington   Zeldin +28   20,784   67%
Greene   Zeldin +24   19,653   >95%
Tioga   Zeldin +36   18,685   >95%
Fulton   Zeldin +44   18,669   >95%
Delaware   Zeldin +30   18,162   >95%
Chenango   Zeldin +41   16,610   >95%
Montgomery   Zeldin +37   15,583   >95%
Allegany   Zeldin +51   15,528   >95%
Cortland   Zeldin +16   15,314   >95%
Essex   Zeldin +10   15,237   >95%
Franklin   Zeldin +22   14,810   >95%
Wyoming   Zeldin +59   14,068   >95%
Orleans   Zeldin +52   13,512   >95%
Schoharie   Zeldin +39   12,549   >95%
Seneca   Zeldin +22   11,370   >95%
Lewis   Zeldin +63   10,154   >95%
Yates   Zeldin +30   8,075   >95%
Schuyler   Zeldin +32   7,628   >95%
Hamilton   Zeldin +42   2,878   >95%
– Collapse

Zeldin chipped and chipped away at Hochul's lead, but there was a bedrock of Democratic support that Zeldin was unable to touch.  He lost Erie County.  He barely lost Schenectady County.  Perhaps the votes Zeldin needed to win have already packed up and moved to FL.  I don't particularly care for Hochul and I view her as one of the Branch Covidians (Whitmer is the leader of that group.), but I don't think she took the race for granted.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

No, Zeldin looks like Chris Sununu and almost won that's why Rs overperform but Gillibrand is on the ballot not  HOCHUL and we will win any NY Districts back along with VA 2

Zeldin could have been a Chris Sununu-style Republican if he didn't have the baggage of being such a big Trump fan during his presidency. In a world where Zeldin was less vocal about supporting Trump and clearly denounced January 6, I think he could have beat Hochul.