Harvard Youth Poll: age 18-29 turnout on track to match or exceed 2018, GCB D+26

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://iop.harvard.edu/fall-2022-harvard-youth-poll

Lots of good information here.  A few tidbits:

A national poll released today by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School indicates that 40% of 18-to-29-year-olds state that they will “definitely" vote in the November 8 midterm elections, on track to match or potentially exceed the record-breaking 2018 youth turnout in a midterm election. Young voters prefer Democratic control of Congress 57% to 31% (up five points for Democrats since spring), but 12% remain undecided.

Forty percent (40%) of young Americans report that they will “definitely” vote in the upcoming midterms, matching the proportion of young Americans who said the same in the IOP’s fall 2018 survey. The number of young Americans likely to vote has increased four percentage points since spring 2022 Harvard IOP polling – and is 14 points higher than 2014 and 13 points higher than 2010 fall benchmarks. (In 2019, the U.S. Census noted that turnout among 18- to 29-year-olds increased from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group.)

Young Americans under 30 who live in battleground states (45%) are more likely to vote than those from traditional red (33%) or blue states (40%); this cycle’s battleground state residents are also more likely to vote than those from similar states in 2018 (38%).

[wbrocks67]

This is why I think it's possible some polls could be off. When you get these small sample sizes in regular polls - take Suffolk for example, you typically find worse results for Ds versus these bigger polls that are focused more on the specific demo.

Suffolk this morning has Ds only at 50-42, +8, among 18-34 year olds. This is 18-29, but close enough - and has D+26.

Same thing with the polls of Latinos, most big polls focusing on just them generally have Ds up about ~25%, while smaller samples can be all over the place (like Suffolk today as well at D+12)

Who will be right? We just have to wait and see.

But it's not surprising to me that polls that are closer to tied among the GCB have the latter results, and polls that have shown R+4/5 or something are usually the ones that indicate lower youth support

[EastwoodS]

Then we need to make sure that it’s harder for them to vote..clearly.

[Sir Mohamed]

That's good news, though I still find a 26 pts. edge too low, given how insane the GOP is.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Polling doesn't really capture turnout dynamics that change from year to year since those who are willing to respond to polls are by nature more willing to show up and vote for the more socially approved choice among their age and educational cohort (Dems). Conventional wisdom however does point to youth turnout being higher than the 2010 and 2014 midterms, but the extent of which is really just to be seen by actual voter turnout data from states and campaigns.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Then we need to make sure that it’s harder for them to vote..clearly.

STFU

[Boobs]

You know it’s going to be a bad election for Dems when they start claiming high youth turnout will save them.

[darklordoftech]

What will the “Why don’t young people vote” crowd say if there’s a high turnout of young voters?

[Figueira]

You know it’s going to be a bad election for Dems when they start claiming high youth turnout will save them.

This isn't a partisan poll.

[NerdyBohemian]

I’ll fully admit to being delusional, but I’ve been telling myself maybe, just maybe, the polls are over correcting themselves from missing out on so many Republican voters last time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’ll fully admit to being delusional, but I’ve been telling myself maybe, just maybe, the polls are over correcting themselves from missing out on so many Republican voters last time.

It's certainly possible.  "Fighting the last war" is a problem in many fields.

[John Dule]

What will the “Why don’t young people vote” crowd say if there’s a high turnout of young voters?

We’ll never know.

[NerdyBohemian]

I’ll fully admit to being delusional, but I’ve been telling myself maybe, just maybe, the polls are over correcting themselves from missing out on so many Republican voters last time.

Boom.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Right on the mark.