Predict the margin in PA-GOV
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Author Topic: Predict the margin in PA-GOV  (Read 777 times)
Aurelius
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« on: November 07, 2022, 06:17:29 PM »
Shapiro wins by 12.
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Bill Nelson
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« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2022, 06:29:34 PM »
Shapiro+7
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iceman
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« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2022, 06:36:42 PM »
Shapiro 55-44
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Dani Rose
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« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2022, 06:51:53 PM »
I'll be bold and say Shapiro+14. Feel free to make me eat crow if I'm wrong.
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Mexican Wolf
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« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2022, 07:40:06 PM »
Shapiro wins by 9%.
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Not Me, Us
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« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2022, 08:02:02 PM »
Shapiro +5. It'll be closer than most people think.
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Senator Spark
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« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2022, 08:42:27 PM »
Shapiro +3.3
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2022, 08:44:23 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2022, 09:40:19 PM by Real Texan Politics »
Like a 1-2 point victory for Shapiro. I think there'll be a big polling miss, but won't be enough.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2022, 09:27:05 PM »
Quote from: Real Texan Politics on November 07, 2022, 08:44:23 PM
Like a 1-2 point victory. I think there'll be a big polling miss, but won't be enough.
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20RP12
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« Reply #9 on: November 08, 2022, 08:35:50 AM »
Shapiro +8
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Enduro
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« Reply #10 on: November 08, 2022, 09:23:45 AM »
Shapiro by 6, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was even closer to double digits
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #11 on: November 08, 2022, 12:04:55 PM »
Shapiro +8
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seskoog
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« Reply #12 on: November 08, 2022, 12:25:50 PM »
Shapiro+10
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TPIG
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« Reply #13 on: November 08, 2022, 12:26:32 PM »
Shapiro +8
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #14 on: November 08, 2022, 12:43:07 PM »
Shapiro wins by anywhere between 5 and 7 points.
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AGA
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« Reply #15 on: November 08, 2022, 02:53:23 PM »
Shapiro +5
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President Johnson
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« Reply #16 on: November 08, 2022, 03:13:09 PM »
Shapiro by roughly ten. Similar to 2014.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #17 on: November 08, 2022, 04:51:42 PM »
I'm guessing mid, maybe high single digits at best for Shapiro.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #18 on: November 08, 2022, 09:16:34 PM »
Quote from: Real Texan Politics on November 07, 2022, 08:44:23 PM
Like a 1-2 point victory for Shapiro. I think there'll be a big polling miss, but won't be enough.

I'm not trying to be smug or overconfident here - but there is ABSOLUTELY no way Shapiro is underperforming Biden 2020.

I'm going to say Shapiro+5 - and yes, that would mean a largish polling error. Best not to get my hopes too high, but we'll see.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #19 on: November 09, 2022, 10:31:59 AM »
Quote from: Dani Rose on November 07, 2022, 06:51:53 PM
I'll be bold and say Shapiro+14. Feel free to make me eat crow if I'm wrong.

And…your seemingly borderline hackish prediction turned out to be very close to accurate!
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #20 on: November 09, 2022, 10:35:48 AM »
« Edited: November 09, 2022, 10:42:07 AM by CentristRepublican »
Quote from: Real Texan Politics on November 07, 2022, 08:44:23 PM
Like a 1-2 point victory for Shapiro. I think there'll be a big polling miss, but won't be enough.

Just ignore my post where I said I won’t be smug or overconfident. Shapiro won by 13. Next time, try to consider that your party nominating far-right extremists means they’ll lose in purple states by landslides - and don’t attribute all good Democratic polling performances to “polling errors.” The polls were right in predicting a big Shapiro victory (if anything they seem to have underestimated Shapiro!), and I was right in calling this one Safe D.


TLDR: SHAPIRO WIPED THE FLOOR WITH MASTRIANO. THERE WAS NO POLLING ERROR HERE AND YOU WERE COMPLETELY WRONG.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #21 on: November 09, 2022, 10:36:56 AM »

Lol, 10 points off…final result was Shapiro+13.2.
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20RP12
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« Reply #22 on: November 09, 2022, 10:51:34 AM »
Shapiro damn near flipped Lancaster County lmao.
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Dani Rose
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« Reply #23 on: November 09, 2022, 12:25:44 PM »
Quote from: CentristRepublican on November 09, 2022, 10:31:59 AM
Quote from: Dani Rose on November 07, 2022, 06:51:53 PM
I'll be bold and say Shapiro+14. Feel free to make me eat crow if I'm wrong.

And…your seemingly borderline hackish prediction turned out to be very close to accurate!

Can't believe I might actually nail it. Like, seriously, I predicted that number just to give people a nice upper end of expectations to dampen their obvious anxiety, I had no idea it might be right.
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Not Me, Us
KhanOfKhans
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« Reply #24 on: November 09, 2022, 01:58:03 PM »

Wolf did pretty well there too iirc. What's really wild is that he won Luzerne. I really didn't think he'd pull it off.
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