MARIST: Fetterman +6, Kelly +3, Georgia TIED

[Dani Rose]

Took a day off from politics to recharge from the unassailable wall of doom, and I come back to this. What a set of polls! Favorable numbers with minimal undecideds! Chef's kiss!

(Georgia's going to give me heartburn on E-Day isn't it)

[Yoda]

Yup, like I said.....the avalanche of junk polls we've been seeing is simply republican dark money flooding the zone with s***. Yet again a real pollster shows a static race, with a durable mid-single digit Fetterman lead.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

In September:

Warnock 47, Walker 42
Kelly 51, Masters 41
Fetterman 51, Oz 41

So the Dems numbers barely changed (Warnock went 1 point, Kelly went down 1, Fetterman stayed the same), but Republicans are coming home. Interesting.

seems to fall in line with what I've been saying for a while that at minimum 2/3 of undecideds would go R.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Marist continues to be unadulterated trash.. RV polls at this point and refuses to weigh by education ?

Lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Marist continues to be unadulterated trash.. RV polls at this point and refuses to weigh by education ?

Lol.

Lol here is MARIST figured in the Early votes 70/30 Fetterman voters there are more registered Ds in PA than Rs


https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1588392767805587457


By the way Oprah endorsed Fetterman not your Dr Oz whom is gonna lose because Shapiro is gonna win how do you think Shapiro is gonna win, more Ds are in PA than Rs

[South Dakota Democrat]

Marist is horrible in midwestern states, but they're actually pretty good in AZ and GA.

In 2020, their final presidential poll was a tied (basically perfect with the Biden +0.3 result), but their final senate poll was +6 (Kelly only won by 2.5%).

In 2018 their final poll was Sinema +6 (she won by 2.3) and Ducey +13 (he won by 15%). Their final poll was also like 2 weeks before election day for some reason.

They didn't poll GA in 2020 for some reason, but in 2018 they did well (final poll was Kemp +2, he won by 1.4).

I mean, ok, 3.5 points off in PA 2020 is by no means good, but it’s not some horrific miss either - that’s the same amount Trafalgar (the “most accurate Midwest pollster”) missed by.

Looking it up now they were actually pretty good in PA in 2018 too. I suppose I was more remembering the rest of the Midwest, where they have been truly awful (like having Donnelly and McCaskill winning in 2018).

PA isn't part of the Midwest, so there's that.

[Pollster]

Marist is horrible in midwestern states, but they're actually pretty good in AZ and GA.

In 2020, their final presidential poll was a tied (basically perfect with the Biden +0.3 result), but their final senate poll was +6 (Kelly only won by 2.5%).

In 2018 their final poll was Sinema +6 (she won by 2.3) and Ducey +13 (he won by 15%). Their final poll was also like 2 weeks before election day for some reason.

They didn't poll GA in 2020 for some reason, but in 2018 they did well (final poll was Kemp +2, he won by 1.4).

I mean, ok, 3.5 points off in PA 2020 is by no means good, but it’s not some horrific miss either - that’s the same amount Trafalgar (the “most accurate Midwest pollster”) missed by.

Looking it up now they were actually pretty good in PA in 2018 too. I suppose I was more remembering the rest of the Midwest, where they have been truly awful (like having Donnelly and McCaskill winning in 2018).

When you factor in MOE and look at vote share (which is what polls should always be used for) they have nailed the Democrats' final number almost all the time and that is the most defensible way of using these polls right now.

[wbrocks67]

So the most recent nonpartisan polls of PA are:

Fetterman +6 (Marist)
Fetterman +4 (Monmouth)
Fetterman +3/4 (Fox)
Fetterman +2 (Suffolk)
Fetterman +0 (Muhlenberg)
Oz +1 (Emerson)

And then you have Fetterman +4/5 (F&M), Fetterman +6 (CNN) and Fetterman +6 (NYT/Siena) from right before the debate.

This all still kinda points to a Fetterman +2/3 win.

[wbrocks67]

The favorables have been remarkably consistent in this race:

Fetterman: 47/46
Oz: 37/53

Fetterman consistently, even thru the Suffolk and Monmouth polls this week and CNN/NYT before, is about even among favorability, around the mid-40s.

Oz has been stuck in that 37-40% range consistently, as well as that ~53% unfavorable.

[Vern]

These will not age well.

[Pollster]

So the most recent nonpartisan polls of PA are:

Fetterman +6 (Marist)
Fetterman +4 (Monmouth)
Fetterman +3/4 (Fox)
Fetterman +2 (Suffolk)
Fetterman +0 (Muhlenberg)
Oz +1 (Emerson)

And then you have Fetterman +4/5 (F&M), Fetterman +6 (CNN) and Fetterman +6 (NYT/Siena) from right before the debate.

This all still kinda points to a Fetterman +2/3 win.

If you have handy, can you post Fetterman's vote shares please?

[wbrocks67]

So the most recent nonpartisan polls of PA are:

Fetterman +6 (Marist)
Fetterman +4 (Monmouth)
Fetterman +3/4 (Fox)
Fetterman +2 (Suffolk)
Fetterman +0 (Muhlenberg)
Oz +1 (Emerson)

And then you have Fetterman +4/5 (F&M), Fetterman +6 (CNN) and Fetterman +6 (NYT/Siena) from right before the debate.

This all still kinda points to a Fetterman +2/3 win.

If you have handy, can you post Fetterman's vote shares please?

Yep!

CNN - 51
Marist - 50/51
NYT/Siena - 50
F&M - 49
Monmouth - 48 (though ranged from 48-51 on their different turnout "models")
Emerson - 48
Suffolk - 47
Muhelnberg - 47
Fox - 45/47

Meanwhile, Oz has only crossed past 45 in two of those - Emerson (49) and Muhelnberg (47)

[Sestak]

So the most recent nonpartisan polls of PA are:

Fetterman +6 (Marist)
Fetterman +4 (Monmouth)
Fetterman +3/4 (Fox)
Fetterman +2 (Suffolk)
Fetterman +0 (Muhlenberg)
Oz +1 (Emerson)

And then you have Fetterman +4/5 (F&M), Fetterman +6 (CNN) and Fetterman +6 (NYT/Siena) from right before the debate.

This all still kinda points to a Fetterman +2/3 win.

If you have handy, can you post Fetterman's vote shares please?

Marist 50
Fox 45
Emerson 46 (47 with leaners)
Monmouth 48
Muhlenburg 47
Suffolk 47

Fox number is without their LV screen. With their “certain”/“likely to vote” categories he’s at 47 there.