Potential Abortion impact on Senate elections (Support % by State)

[SCNCmod]

Abortion is rank much lower economy when it comes to voters most important issue- but given how close many Senate elections appear to be- The level of support fir abortion right could has a greater than expected impact.
So here are the general ranking of states (which senate races) based on what % support abortion rights:

4    NH  
12  NV
14  Wash
18  FL   (56/39  ...support/ oppose)

24  Wisc   (53/45 ...support/ oppose)
25  Iowa

30  NC
31  AZ
32  Kansas (49/49 ... support/oppose)
33  Ohio
34  GA

38  Utah   (47/51  ... support/ oppose)


***It's worth noting that when asked about support in cases of rape or life of the mother- Iowa, Wisc, Utah, Arizona... all jump to 70% (where as NC/FL/GA have a much smaller relative jump), which indicates the South has less nuanced views on when abortion should be legal.  (I think Ohio moved just a little more than Deep South states- but jumped more in cases of rape than it did for life of mother).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NH really living up to its reputation here...

[Skill and Chance]

I'm not sure what to make of this.  On the one hand, you have the Kansas referendum results.  On the other hand, you have the Michigan referendum consistently polling roughly in line with typical D/R partisanship in the state. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm not sure what to make of this.  On the one hand, you have the Kansas referendum results.  On the other hand, you have the Michigan referendum consistently polling roughly in line with typical D/R partisanship in the state. 

It feels like in MI, the abortion referendum has become more polarized as it's been talked about for months whereas in KS, it was a very quick spike in coverage leading to less time for things to get as polarized.

It does seem like Prop 3 should outrun the Dem ticket by quite a bit, but it's not going to be some 30 point blowout we may expect based on KS.