Monmouth (PA-SEN): Fetterman +4

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman = 48%
39% definitely / 9% probably

Oz = 44%
32% definitely / 12% probably

Little change from October, which was 48% for Fetterman (37/11) and 43% for Oz (25/18)

Fetterman fav: 47/46
Oz fav: 40/53

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_110222/

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, at least something. Oz' favorables continue to be horrible. The race is pretty much a coinflip now. Ugh. Maybe Fetterman winning can keep us the senate by cancelling out CCM's almost certain loss.

[ajc0918]

Race basically unchanged over the past month.

[Devils30]

Ugh, at least something. Oz' favorables continue to be horrible. The race is pretty much a coinflip now. Ugh. Maybe Fetterman winning can keep us the senate by cancelling out CCM's almost certain loss.

The mail ballots always have a backlog, CCM has not lost this yet by any means. Too many questions with backlogged mail and Ds who were in person 2018, mail 2020, maybe in person again in 2022 voters to have this race as R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map Fetterman was never endangered that poor debate performance was based on a medical condition not gaffe Rs think that Oz was gonna win on that, No

[soundchaser]

This is better than I was expecting, honestly. Oz’s support is softer than Fetterman’s, and those favorables continue to paint an ok picture.

[Eraserhead]

Beautiful poll!

[Minnesota Mike]

Race basically unchanged over the past month.

So the debate did not end Fetterman's run? Not sure who ends up winning but the idea that the debate was a cataclysmic campaign ender was always absurd.

[wbrocks67]

Combined "probably/definitely not"

Oz: 56% in Sept, 54% in Oct, 54% in Nov
Fetterman: 47% in Sept, 47% in Oct, 49% in Nov

Pretty much stable for 3 months. Fetterman has increased a bit, unsurprising with the onslaught of attacks from the GOP. Oz has remained consistent around ~55% though.

[wbrocks67]

Race basically unchanged over the past month.

So the debate did not end Fetterman's run? Not sure who ends up winning but the idea that the debate was a cataclysmic campaign ender was always absurd.

Yeah, among people who say they watched or saw something about the debate, only 3% say they are 'reconsidering' their support.

[Podgy the Bear]

Ugh, at least something. Oz' favorables continue to be horrible. The race is pretty much a coinflip now. Ugh. Maybe Fetterman winning can keep us the senate by cancelling out CCM's almost certain loss.

What "almost certain loss" for CCM?  She's hanging in there--polls have it very tight, and I continue to believe in Democratic underpolling in NV.

[wbrocks67]

Pretty much the same in all “turnout” areas

Voters who participated in 2020 election: Fetterman 48 - Oz 45
Voters who participated in 2018 election: Fetterman 49 - Oz 45
Voters who say they are ‘extremely motivated’ this year: Fetterman 51 - Oz 47

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, at least something. Oz' favorables continue to be horrible. The race is pretty much a coinflip now. Ugh. Maybe Fetterman winning can keep us the senate by cancelling out CCM's almost certain loss.

What "almost certain loss" for CCM?  She's hanging in there--polls have it very tight, and I continue to believe in Democratic underpolling in NV.

NV discussion doesn't usually belong here, but since I want to be respectful and answer the question: Most recently released polls have her down, 2 just came out with Laxalt ahead by 5 pts.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Monmouth seems to have done pretty well in PA with their last poll before Election Day 2020 in terms of gauging the Democratic voteshare (while undershooting the Republican voteshare).  

Same goes for 2016 (Prezi and Senate).  Doesn't appear they polled either the Senate or Gubernatorial race in 2018.  

I'm no expert on polling, ofc, and there's always the consideration that even missing the D's topline by a small margin can make a big difference in a race as close as this one.

Wouldn't surprise me if Fetterman comes in at around 48 points when all is said and done.  Whether that will be enough remains to be seen.      

[astrohuncho]

Monmouth seems to have done pretty well in PA with their last poll before Election Day 2020 in terms of gauging the Democratic voteshare (while undershooting the Republican voteshare).  

Same goes for 2016 (Prezi and Senate).  Doesn't appear they polled either the Senate or Gubernatorial race in 2018.  

I'm no expert on polling, ofc, and there's always the consideration that even missing the D's topline by a small margin can make a big difference in a race as close as this one.

Wouldn't surprise me if Fetterman comes in at around 48 points when all is said and done.  Whether that will be enough remains to be seen.      

they said 48 for hillary and 47 for mcginty

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Monmouth seems to have done pretty well in PA with their last poll before Election Day 2020 in terms of gauging the Democratic voteshare (while undershooting the Republican voteshare).  

Same goes for 2016 (Prezi and Senate).  Doesn't appear they polled either the Senate or Gubernatorial race in 2018.  

I'm no expert on polling, ofc, and there's always the consideration that even missing the D's topline by a small margin can make a big difference in a race as close as this one.

Wouldn't surprise me if Fetterman comes in at around 48 points when all is said and done.  Whether that will be enough remains to be seen.      

they said 48 for hillary and 47 for mcginty

Which isn't terribly far off where the Democratic voteshare landed (47.5 for Hillary, 47.3 for McGinty).  

But again, even a small deviation by a half point might make all the difference in this race and one poll/pollster is hardly conclusive.  

As others have said, coin-flip race is likely coin-flip race (though I'd rather be Oz than Fetterman rn)

[Dani Rose]

I was frankly terrified of this poll when I heard it was coming, so I'm pretty happy right now, honestly. Monmouth is the sort of firm who I absolutely would take seriously if they showed Oz in the lead, so it's a huge relief to me that they didn't. Given the titanic EV lead we've banked and the fact that Trump isn't on the ballot to spark another massive GOP overperformance, I'm going to continue feeling pretty unafraid about this one.

[wbrocks67]

People can say whatever they want, but you have to hand it to Fetterman - IDK if he'll win or not, but he has been absolutely *battered* by GOP attack ads and the fact that he's still hanging on to a solid favorability score shows he's a pretty good candidate imo.

[Eraserhead]

People can say whatever they want, but you have to hand it to Fetterman - IDK if he'll win or not, but he has been absolutely *battered* by GOP attack ads and the fact that he's still hanging on to a solid favorability score shows he's a pretty good candidate imo.

If he loses, I think it'll most likely be because there is some level of "GOP wave" that sweeps them to victory in almost all of the close contests across the country (which of course is a serious possibility unfortunately).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman isn't gonna lose with Shapiro get real

[ElectionObserver]

Fetterman: 48% "definitely" or "probably" support (Same as early October)
Oz: 44% "definitely" or "probably" support  (+1 on early October)

Who is more trusted on key issues?
@JohnFetterman (D) / @DrOz (R)
47% / 34% abortion
46% / 38% jobs, economy
43% / 38% defending values
43% / 34% elections, voting
42% / 42% crime
41% / 36% guns
37% / 41% immigration (the only one where Oz is ahead)

4.5% MOE

[Eraserhead]

This was posted already.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This was posted already.

Thanks, merged.

[Woody]

Good poll for Oz.

Monmouth had Biden coming up 51-44 before election day.