2024 as 2020 with past election swings

[bagelman]

starting with 1980

Not going to color maps by margin or show all because some margins would be unrealistic.



NPV R+7.35

By far the most shocking states are VA and MI. Only the most optimistic Republicans expected Virginia to flip and everybody expected Michigan to flip. Instead MI held with a margin of D+1.68 during a R popular vote victory. Unlike in most of the region, working class whites in the area flipped back to Democrats after Trump and during the rise of Detroit from the ashes during Biden's presidency. Virginia meanwhile was clearly a result of the GOP NPV, voting R+1.28. Minnesota also flipped in the same manner with a margin of R+1.82, but Colorado held as the closest state with a margin of D+0.97.

The GOP dominance in the rurals was insane in this election.

[Chips]

1984: R+18.2

[bagelman]

(the above map by Chips is 2028 after President has a good run in the 1980 scenario. Btw you can get my EV numbers by clicking "Edit this map" on my post)

1984



NPV R+4

Virginia is even more surprising here at R+2.36. Nevada meanwhile returns to the new normal of being a blue state after Trump 2020's overperformance here due to COVID. Closest states on both sides are Arizona at R+1.2 and Pennsylvania at D+0.94, both clearly D leaning going forward for different reasons.

Also Delaware, a state nobody paid attention to, quietly almost flipped at D+1.46.

[bagelman]

2004:



NPV D+1.47 (R+0.62 relative to 2016, D+0.95 relative to 2000)

Notable margins

NC R+0.96
PA R+0.49 decided election
WI D+0.79
MI D+1.07

Republicans targeted the sunbelt and did well in Georgia and Arizona. This marks the third election in my lifetime the Republicans win without the NPV, as opposed to only one where they won the NPV.

[bagelman]

2008



NPV D+14.18

Close margins:

AZ D+2.28
IA D+2
MT D+1.75
NE R+0.78

In Nebraska, the Republican controlled state legislature tried to gerrymander Democrats out of Omaha, but didn't actually repeal the Maine Rule. It backfired in this Democratic landslide as both eastern districts went for Fetterman narrowly.

If I follow swings, IN should be D+5.65 and OH should be R+1.33. I don't find this realistic so I left both as tossups.

[bagelman]

2012



NPV: D+1.04 (R+1.05 relative to 2016, D+0.52 relative to 2000)

Closest R flips:

AZ R+0.24
NE-02 R+0.3

The 2020 trends were real in Nevada, which along with Arizona almost holding and being closer than 2020 are the biggest surprises in an otherwise stable election. It's a perverse kind of stable with this marking the third election in my lifetime the Republicans win without the NPV, as opposed to only one where they won the NPV.

[bagelman]

2016




TEXAS

Close margins:

MN D+0.93
NV R+1.87
NH D+2.14
TX D+1.22 (decides election)

Insane R margins possible if swings followed

OH R+19.06
IA R+23.4

Note that Utah may instead by won by a third party conservative. My projection is the Democrats narrowly winning the state over said third party. An issue there is declining water supplies.

[bagelman]

1988



The Democratic candidate could be Marcia Fudge or some populist. The main issue is that both the Biden administration and the Republican party are in league with Monsanto during a major farm crises. Democrats manage to nominate someone who breaks away from the party's elite on this issue, Republicans nominate a swamp creature.

Notable margins:

IA: D+9.4
TX: D+9.31
KS: D+5.79
FL: D+4.94
NE Statewide: D+1.73
MO: D+0.68
GA: D+0.37
MT: D+0.05
OH: R+0.11

[bagelman]

1992



The Trumpist candidate divides the Republican vote, leading to Democratic flips of SC and OH. The Trumpist candidate receives the offical Republican party line in AR, leading to a win despite the national candidate winning in the northwest. Meanwhile in ME-02 ranked choice voting allows enough national R voters to rank the Trumpist #2 and give the rebel ticket 7 EV total.

IA and WI strongly trended R in this election.

[bagelman]

1996 is boring, switching GA and FL and flipping ME-2 both due to redistricting and some coming home in upper New England.



2020 swings repeated is so boring I'm not posting it. It's 2020 with NC flipping for Democrats.

[bagelman]

2000

[bagelman]

1972



The Democratic party is the party of woke imperialism. Harris runs as a second term of Biden and only holds blacks (DE) and progressive whites (OR) due to negative partisanship. Meanwhile Asians and Hispanics flock to the GOP.

[bagelman]

1964



The GOP goes too far off the deep end, goes back to bible thumping, and begins to support ideas like restoring poll taxes and putting non violent drug offenders together with murderers in concentration camps, and begins to stand back and stand by to violence against elected officials, including popular if moderate Republicans. In Georgia, Stacey Abrams is arrested after winning more votes than her opponent in the 2022 gubernatorial race and the state adopts strict laws against "voter fraud". During the 2024 primaries the party begins purging primary losers, most notably Josh Hawely who has his political career destroyed and is forced to resign from the senate for transparent political reasons. Fetterman promises to bring a stop to this. He also appeals to some Trump supporters against the swamp creature Tom Cotton.

Closest states:

FL D+2
SD D+1.5
UT R+0.88

[bagelman]

1956:



NPV: R+0.19

The Democratic ticket is in favor of continuing corn subsides, which has become a political issue in the wake of the continuing obesity crises. This leads to the state of Iowa flipping during a Republican victory, unthinkable in the wake of Biden's loss in the state. Democratic swings are even bigger in the Dakotas, as the Democrats nominate Governor Billie Sutton (elected 2022) for Vice President, however their Republican partisan lean is a mountain too steep even for him. More important are all the key swing states going for the GOP, which also enjoys success in upper New England, and very narrowly takes the popular vote. Free money for corn syrup is off the menu in America.

The situation in South Carolina is still unclear. The state is defending against several lawsuits relating to a voter registration law similar to the one passed in Georgia in the wake of Biden winning there, but much more arbitrary and no Democratic governor has won to repeal it after 2022. A right wing third party candidate, popular specifically there, has taken lots of votes away from the national GOP ticket, enough that if enough of the disputed provisional ballots are counted and they are Democratic enough it may flip. This would likely be caused by the ballot access law backfiring on state Republicans, unexpectedly hindering their own voter turnout. It's also possible that the state's electoral votes may be rejected by Congress.

[bagelman]

1936



NPV: D+10.95

Biden has Built Back Better, but the central farm states have reacted to the aquifer crises by moving even further right. Iowa is one of these states, while Ohio, its political sibling in the past, strongly goes the other way. Democrats rebound in Ohio and in Pennsylvania, Ohio regains its status as a purple state while Pennsylvania is seen as blue rather than purple.

[bagelman]

1920



lol

Some unusual patterns, New Mexico and North Carolina both being quite close in this massive GOP landslide. Hawaii I'm unsure about, but it would be fairly close.

In many normally blue or purple states like Washington, the opposition vote was also split.

[Schiff for Senate]

If I follow swings, IN should be D+5.65 and OH should be R+1.33. I don't find this realistic so I left both as tossups.

Just about nothing in these maps makes absolute sense - that's the point. I personally think DE nearly flipping and VA flipping are a lot less likely than OH voting red by only 1.3%. The last one is still possible, but not very likely, while the first and second are nearly impossible, barring some kind of party realignment, a very, very red year (exceedingly unlikely, especially in 2024), or the GOP nominee being a very popular Delawarean/Virginian who chooses a similarly popular Virginian/Delawarean as his running mate. I could actually see Ohio voting the way you suggested (red by south of 2 points) were Sherrod Brown to be the Democratic nominee.

[bagelman]

If I follow swings, IN should be D+5.65 and OH should be R+1.33. I don't find this realistic so I left both as tossups.

Just about nothing in these maps makes absolute sense - that's the point. I personally think DE nearly flipping and VA flipping are a lot less likely than OH voting red by only 1.3%. The last one is still possible, but not very likely, while the first and second are nearly impossible, barring some kind of party realignment, a very, very red year (exceedingly unlikely, especially in 2024), or the GOP nominee being a very popular Delawarean/Virginian who chooses a similarly popular Virginian/Delawarean as his running mate. I could actually see Ohio voting the way you suggested (red by south of 2 points) were Sherrod Brown to be the Democratic nominee.

The truly unrealistic part is IN voting to the left of OH by 7 points.

[Schiff for Senate]

If I follow swings, IN should be D+5.65 and OH should be R+1.33. I don't find this realistic so I left both as tossups.

Just about nothing in these maps makes absolute sense - that's the point. I personally think DE nearly flipping and VA flipping are a lot less likely than OH voting red by only 1.3%. The last one is still possible, but not very likely, while the first and second are nearly impossible, barring some kind of party realignment, a very, very red year (exceedingly unlikely, especially in 2024), or the GOP nominee being a very popular Delawarean/Virginian who chooses a similarly popular Virginian/Delawarean as his running mate. I could actually see Ohio voting the way you suggested (red by south of 2 points) were Sherrod Brown to be the Democratic nominee.

The truly unrealistic part is IN voting to the left of OH by 7 points.

True. But forget whatever I said...the most unrealistic, by far, is the map where NV votes red while UT votes blue. Nothing else on any of the maps really tops that.

[bagelman]

Some more silly than before for 1900/04/08:

1908



AZ and NM were not states in 1908, but the general swing for most of the country is towards Dems so they hold.

1904



The flips here are surreal enough that I cannot predict AZ or NM, which were not states in 1904. If I had to I would guess D hold but I'm not confident.

1900



For 1900 the deciding states are NC at D+1.28 and OR at D+2.13. In a chaotic election based on voting swings that are totally alien to the modern age, a pedestrian flip of NC is what decides it all. ME-02 is very relevant but not as close. FL is D+3.25. AZ and NM are predictions based on the GOP swing in the general west, with CO supposed to be swinging right by 57 points (lol) but they don't prevent an ultra-narrow D hold in the EC.