How likely is this near future?

[Person Man]

Replace "Republican" with "Democrat" and "2024" with "2008".

There just didn't seem a way forward for Republicans after W. I think that Democrats will find a way to adapt, so long as Republicans don't become a big tent party and Democrats a regional/special interest party.

My guess is that they will improve with who they need to be competitive again in some of the states they had and are currently losing and other states that they haven't won in a while. 

IMO the risk that they end up forfeiting the Hispanic vote and become a techie/federal employee/Southern African-American patronage party for a generation or so is now quite high.  If/when the Northern cities give out, it will be very hard to win control of anything other than the House federally.  I do think they stand to benefit in the state legislatures as the Dem vote becomes less concentrated in VRA seats, but they are starting from a low point there. 

Like I said, they need replace loses with Hispanics with more libertarian minded WWC people. They need this map

https://www.270towin.com/maps/jgl96

That except Utah is way more viable than Iowa. They also need to target places where the white UMC is still stuck at 2:1 R.  Same idea with Mississippi.

Sure. We can swap Iowa for Utah.
Like Nashville or Indianapolis?

[Skill and Chance]

Replace "Republican" with "Democrat" and "2024" with "2008".

There just didn't seem a way forward for Republicans after W. I think that Democrats will find a way to adapt, so long as Republicans don't become a big tent party and Democrats a regional/special interest party.

My guess is that they will improve with who they need to be competitive again in some of the states they had and are currently losing and other states that they haven't won in a while. 

IMO the risk that they end up forfeiting the Hispanic vote and become a techie/federal employee/Southern African-American patronage party for a generation or so is now quite high.  If/when the Northern cities give out, it will be very hard to win control of anything other than the House federally.  I do think they stand to benefit in the state legislatures as the Dem vote becomes less concentrated in VRA seats, but they are starting from a low point there. 

Like I said, they need replace loses with Hispanics with more libertarian minded WWC people. They need this map

https://www.270towin.com/maps/jgl96

That except Utah is way more viable than Iowa. They also need to target places where the white UMC is still stuck at 2:1 R.  Same idea with Mississippi.

Sure. We can swap Iowa for Utah.
Like Nashville or Indianapolis?

Mid size cities where the population is mainly white and black and the college+ white vote is still R look promising in general for Dems.  A lot of the hard D trending small cities are unfortunately attached to a ton of hardcore R rurals, like those 2 you mentioned, as well as Oklahoma City and Lexington, KY.  The trouble is the most promising places for the path they are currently taking (intentionally or not) are extremely Republican Southern states, generally more Republican than GA or VA ever peaked at. Tennessee might eventually happen if the eastern cities also give out in addition to Nashville.

Also, R's really shouldn't blow off NYC anymore.  Trump did almost as well as Bush 2004 in NYC and it came completely out of nowhere.  If they can eventually get to 35% or so, NY would likely flip statewide.  Heck, I could imagine a world where NYC and consistent double digit GOP margins in Florida flip the EC advantage back to the Dems.   

[Person Man]

Replace "Republican" with "Democrat" and "2024" with "2008".

There just didn't seem a way forward for Republicans after W. I think that Democrats will find a way to adapt, so long as Republicans don't become a big tent party and Democrats a regional/special interest party.

My guess is that they will improve with who they need to be competitive again in some of the states they had and are currently losing and other states that they haven't won in a while. 

IMO the risk that they end up forfeiting the Hispanic vote and become a techie/federal employee/Southern African-American patronage party for a generation or so is now quite high.  If/when the Northern cities give out, it will be very hard to win control of anything other than the House federally.  I do think they stand to benefit in the state legislatures as the Dem vote becomes less concentrated in VRA seats, but they are starting from a low point there. 

Like I said, they need replace loses with Hispanics with more libertarian minded WWC people. They need this map

https://www.270towin.com/maps/jgl96

That except Utah is way more viable than Iowa. They also need to target places where the white UMC is still stuck at 2:1 R.  Same idea with Mississippi.

Sure. We can swap Iowa for Utah.
Like Nashville or Indianapolis?

Mid size cities where the population is mainly white and black and the college+ white vote is still R look promising in general for Dems.  A lot of the hard D trending small cities are unfortunately attached to a ton of hardcore R rurals, like those 2 you mentioned, as well as Oklahoma City and Lexington, KY.  The trouble is the most promising places for the path they are currently taking (intentionally or not) are extremely Republican Southern states, generally more Republican than GA or VA ever peaked at. Tennessee might eventually happen if the eastern cities also give out in addition to Nashville.

Also, R's really shouldn't blow off NYC anymore.  Trump did almost as well as Bush 2004 in NYC and it came completely out of nowhere.  If they can eventually get to 35% or so, NY would likely flip statewide.  Heck, I could imagine a world where NYC and consistent double digit GOP margins in Florida flip the EC advantage back to the Dems.   

I think Republicans are trying really hard with Florida. Almost too hard. And I get it. It’s like how the Democrats tried to break the one party west. Maybe you are right. Maybe if New York was the new anti Texas and Florida is the new Old Texas, we could go to a situation where Democrats can win the presidency at 49% of the TPV. That’s all it would really take. Really interested in the prop 3 vote. If it struggles, let alone fails, it should be a sign that, compared to the Northern Plains and the rest of the Rockies, that there’s more promise ironically in several very Republican states than there is is some purple ones.