PA-07 Wild +1 Muhlenberg

[Pericles]

Leaving aside the great results for Fetterman and Shapiro, it is a bad sign for Republican House chances that they are not clearly ahead in an apparently non-partisan poll of a Biden +1% district where the incumbent did not outrun him. We can't read too much into it, but the polling is saying the House is competitive.

[bilaps]

Would certainly line up with a D+1 GCB, too.

Wild definitely has a great shot here, she outraised Scheller really strongly in Q3.

Also from what I've seen of TV ads, Wild has been able to keep up with the onslaught of GOP spending here.

It's in line with Fetterman +7 from the same pollster. So, I guess, if you beleive Fetterman is up by 7 you will for sure beleive in this one as well.

Only problem is Fetterman is in no way up 7

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, Muhlenberg was a bit too D in 2020 but they pretty much nailed things in 2018 in PA-07 and statewide, so it's possible, much like most other pollsters, that 2020 scrambled things a bit for them.

[Mr.Phips]

Leaving aside the great results for Fetterman and Shapiro, it is a bad sign for Republican House chances that they are not clearly ahead in an apparently non-partisan poll of a Biden +1% district where the incumbent did not outrun him. We can't read too much into it, but the polling is saying the House is competitive.

An incumbent with only a one point lead doesn’t inspire too much confidence.  It seems like only Republican incumbents are allowed to win in this situation.