Joe Biden will probably win Michigan in 2024.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

It's a very pro-choice state with a significant amount of factory workers (who often vote Democratic) and suburban voters (who are increasingly blue).

I can't see Trump or DeSantis winning it.

[EastwoodS]

With the way the economy is going, and the unpopularity of Biden, and the shift in the WWC going republican I’d say it’s ab 50/50 actually.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

With the way the economy is going, and the unpopularity of Biden, and the shift in the WWC going republican I’d say it’s ab 50/50 actually.

The United States economy will probably rebound by 2024

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would say it's probably leaning his way for now. Unlike a lot of the neighboring states in that region, there is actually quite a lot for Dems to be optimistic about in MI, especially if the midterms go relatively well. It's important to note outside of Trump in 2016, MI Rs have really struggled at the federal level for quite a while. Sure it's def possible for Rs to win Michigan but that's indicative of a very good national picture for them since there are several important pieces that need to fall in their favor. In 2016, Trump got all these pieces via a combination of insane rural improvements and WWC improvements in places like Macomb County without the suburban shifts really kicking in until 2020.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tilt D is a fair starting point for me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would say it's probably leaning his way for now. Unlike a lot of the neighboring states in that region, there is actually quite a lot for Dems to be optimistic about in MI, especially if the midterms go relatively well. It's important to note outside of Trump in 2016, MI Rs have really struggled at the federal level for quite a while. Sure it's def possible for Rs to win Michigan but that's indicative of a very good national picture for them since there are several important pieces that need to fall in their favor. In 2016, Trump got all these pieces via a combination of insane rural improvements and WWC improvements in places like Macomb County without the suburban shifts really kicking in until 2020.

You keep talking about WWC it's also Blks and Latinos and Arabs 15 percent Blk and 27 Arab and Latino

[Person Man]

Probably the same with Pennsylvania. It looks like the Democrats are able to stabilize the front in the Midwest (to an extent, perhaps to the point of not relying on the sunbelt as much).

[MarkD]

Yes, of the five states that flipped from 2016 to 2020, Michigan voted for Biden by the biggest margin, so it is safe to say it will vote for him again.

[seskoog]

Yes, of the five states that flipped from 2016 to 2020, Michigan voted for Biden by the biggest margin, so it is safe to say it will vote for him again.

And Michigan had the smallest margin in 2016 of the Trump-Biden states.

[Orwell]

I've heard they're already filling ballots at the local Demonrat headquarters.

[Person Man]

Definitely Michigan and I am looking for signs in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. He probably loses Wisconsin if not Nevada, though. He could make up those states with North Carolina, though. He probably isn't winning North Carolina if he loses Nevada. Wisconsin? Not so much.

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

Michigan is a very tough state for republicans, for sure is the hardest after Illinois from the midwest to flip

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Michigan is a very tough state for republicans, for sure is the hardest after Illinois from the midwest to flip

Including or excluding Minnesota?

[Senator Incitatus]

I would say probably. At this very early point, it's not worth saying much more than it will be a "battleground."

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

Michigan is a very tough state for republicans, for sure is the hardest after Illinois from the midwest to flip

Including or excluding Minnesota?

True, I forgot Minnesota, but yeah, Illinois, Minnesota and then Michigan.

[DS0816]

It's a very pro-choice state with a significant amount of factory workers (who often vote Democratic) and suburban voters (who are increasingly blue).

I can't see Trump or DeSantis winning it.

Michigan, along Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, is now one of the nation’s leading bellwether states. The state—well, all three—is (are) on track to continue voting for presidential election winners, which means both parties, for a few more cycles. The pattern began in 2008. They are the only three states which have been carried in each of the last four cycles. They will, most highly likely, make it five in a row in 2024.