Dems momentum eases...according to Kraushaar

[Devils30]

https://www.axios.com/2022/09/18/democrats-midterm-reality-check

Kraushaar is obsessed with the student loan plan (polls which show no effect on election whatsoever, if not a slight plus for Dems). He loves the Youngkin types and still doesn't realize the Romney wing is dead in the GOP.

Of course GOP is gaining in Senate races...when you only have Trafalgar polls one week that's what umm happens!

[Beet]

The economy is finally starting to buckle. That'll dent the momentum of any incumbent party.

[wbrocks67]

This article is based more on wishcasting than anything actually concrete.

Take PA, he has a weird flimsy argument about how Oz and Fetterman now debating in October is some huge momentum shifting win for Oz despite the fact that Oz is still down at least 5 in every non-Trafalgar poll (he conveniently leaves out the new Monmouth poll as well)

Then doesn't even explain the "momentum shift" in Georgia, and again ignores the Q-pac poll.

Then of course cites the Marquette poll to act as if Johnson +1 is some great result for Johnson, and that there actually was an 8-pt shift in less than a month.

And of course he's trying to act as if Student Loan Relief is some albatross, but then cites NYT/Siena which has it at +5 approval - and of course leaves out the YouGov poll which has it in double digits and Fox News, which has it 54/43.

Oh, and all of that while ignoring that the GCB has still been inching up for Ds.

Should we expect anything else from Hotline Josh?

[wbrocks67]

The economy is finally starting to buckle. That'll dent the moment of any incumbent party.

Gas prices continue to drop, and consumer confidence was actually up last month (which shows that despite the actual inflation report, people *felt* as if things *were* getting better). Wholesale prices actually dipped 0.1% too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/14/producer-price-index-august-2022.html

Nice try though.

[Orser67]

I've always thought that he was smart but a little bit of a Republican hack. With that in mind, it's interesting to see him semi-write off AZ. He may well be right that Senate control will come down to PA, GA, and NV.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's kind of felt like that lately, but then Biden's still improving approval ratings (of course, still not spectacular-but better than Trump's right about now) and still declining gas prices suggest otherwise. I think it's more of a leveling off than a drop-off. We're a bit of a way from the many economic and legislative accomplishments of last month and perhaps the memory of those feats is fading, especially amidst GOP ad blitzes beginning. That's why I wish the Respect for Marriage Act, pass or fail, was voted on this week. I think Democrats need to keep the ball rolling with something like that. Maybe the freight unions ratifying the agreement will gin up good-will again for the Biden administration and Democrats.

 The fact of the matter is, as usual, it always feels like Democrats peak too early. I'm not necessarily saying that this happening to their detriment for sure, but Americans' memories are too short for momentum to last from Dark Brandon August so easily.

[Devils30]

If there are job losses from a recession it probably won’t be felt until after the midterms. Even then we have enough vacancies it likely won’t be a severe downturn.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've always thought that he was smart but a little bit of a Republican hack. With that in mind, it's interesting to see him semi-write off AZ. He may well be right that Senate control will come down to PA, GA, and NV.

This.  He's worth reading but he does seem to view the world through R-colored glasses.

[Devils30]

I've always thought that he was smart but a little bit of a Republican hack. With that in mind, it's interesting to see him semi-write off AZ. He may well be right that Senate control will come down to PA, GA, and NV.

This.  He's worth reading but he does seem to view the world through R-colored glasses.

He is one but not a Trumper. I just think he doesn’t realize the Romney, Christie wing of the party is dead and not coming back.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I've always thought that he was smart but a little bit of a Republican hack. With that in mind, it's interesting to see him semi-write off AZ. He may well be right that Senate control will come down to PA, GA, and NV.

This.  He's worth reading but he does seem to view the world through R-colored glasses.

He is one but not a Trumper. I just think he doesn’t realize the Romney, Christie wing of the party is dead and not coming back.

Honeslty these sort of folks kinda annoy me sometimes because it's obvious to everyone else that that version of the Republican Party isn't coming back. It's fine if you don't support the Dems and don't align with either party, but trying to align yourself with something that doesn't exists looks silly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course it eases Biden is still stuck at 45% and Trump still hasn't been prosecuted or COVID hasn't ended and Inflation is still too high and we are still in a war with Ukraine

The prosecution of Trump is the biggest campaign issue as Trump saying lock Hillary up, and Hillary didn't go to jail either they prosecuted the little people

What are they talking about now, not capping tuition or rents but a WVA pipeline that progressive D's don't even support

[Horus]

Biden's approval seems to have levelled off, and we're in sort of a lull as all the media has been covering the Queen 24/7. Domestic issues haven't been at the forefront.

With that being said, gas prices are still dropping, the railway strike appears to have been averted, and I'm fairly confident Dems will hold the senate with either 50 or 51 seats.

[EastwoodS]

Biden's approval seems to have levelled off, and we're in sort of a lull as all the media has been covering the Queen 24/7. Domestic issues haven't been at the forefront.

With that being said, gas prices are still dropping, the railway strike appears to have been averted, and I'm fairly confident Dems will hold the senate with either 50 or 51 seats.

Nah, things are going to keep getting worse for Dems as is deserved for their garbage party

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Biden's approval seems to have levelled off, and we're in sort of a lull as all the media has been covering the Queen 24/7. Domestic issues haven't been at the forefront.

With that being said, gas prices are still dropping, the railway strike appears to have been averted, and I'm fairly confident Dems will hold the senate with either 50 or 51 seats.

Nah, things are going to keep getting worse for Dems as is deserved for their garbage party

I'll forward that thought to Biden so he can press the button on his desk that makes gas prices go up.

[EastwoodS]

Biden's approval seems to have levelled off, and we're in sort of a lull as all the media has been covering the Queen 24/7. Domestic issues haven't been at the forefront.

With that being said, gas prices are still dropping, the railway strike appears to have been averted, and I'm fairly confident Dems will hold the senate with either 50 or 51 seats.

Nah, things are going to keep getting worse for Dems as is deserved for their garbage party

I'll forward that thought to Biden so he can press the button on his desk that makes gas prices go up.

If Biden didn’t want to own up for the gas prices being so high for most of his presidency he definitely should sit down and shut his old mouth up instead of taking credit for gas prices going down. You don’t get to take credit only when it’s convenient for you while ignoring the problem when it’s not, that’s cowardly.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Biden's approval seems to have levelled off, and we're in sort of a lull as all the media has been covering the Queen 24/7. Domestic issues haven't been at the forefront.

With that being said, gas prices are still dropping, the railway strike appears to have been averted, and I'm fairly confident Dems will hold the senate with either 50 or 51 seats.

Nah, things are going to keep getting worse for Dems as is deserved for their garbage party

I'll forward that thought to Biden so he can press the button on his desk that makes gas prices go up.

If Biden didn’t want to own up for the gas prices being so high for most of his presidency he definitely should sit down and shut his old mouth up instead of taking credit for gas prices going down. You don’t get to take credit only when it’s convenient for you while ignoring the problem when it’s not, that’s cowardly.

When did Trump ever take responsibility for anything going poorly?

[EastwoodS]

Biden's approval seems to have levelled off, and we're in sort of a lull as all the media has been covering the Queen 24/7. Domestic issues haven't been at the forefront.

With that being said, gas prices are still dropping, the railway strike appears to have been averted, and I'm fairly confident Dems will hold the senate with either 50 or 51 seats.

Nah, things are going to keep getting worse for Dems as is deserved for their garbage party

I'll forward that thought to Biden so he can press the button on his desk that makes gas prices go up.

If Biden didn’t want to own up for the gas prices being so high for most of his presidency he definitely should sit down and shut his old mouth up instead of taking credit for gas prices going down. You don’t get to take credit only when it’s convenient for you while ignoring the problem when it’s not, that’s cowardly.

When did Trump ever take responsibility for anything going poorly?

Why are we talking about Trump, he’s not president anymore? I’m focusing on the now, bub, get with it.

[wbrocks67]

Biden's approval seems to have levelled off, and we're in sort of a lull as all the media has been covering the Queen 24/7. Domestic issues haven't been at the forefront.

With that being said, gas prices are still dropping, the railway strike appears to have been averted, and I'm fairly confident Dems will hold the senate with either 50 or 51 seats.

Nah, things are going to keep getting worse for Dems as is deserved for their garbage party

I'll forward that thought to Biden so he can press the button on his desk that makes gas prices go up.

If Biden didn’t want to own up for the gas prices being so high for most of his presidency he definitely should sit down and shut his old mouth up instead of taking credit for gas prices going down. You don’t get to take credit only when it’s convenient for you while ignoring the problem when it’s not, that’s cowardly.

Not sure what you're getting at because most of us are joking here - any smart person knows the president has barely any power over gas prices, whether they're going up or going down. But it would be political malpractice for Biden to not at least mention that they keep going down. Sounds like you're more upset that he's just pushing a W.

And not for nothing, as we've seen, voters are not smart in this arena - they truly seem to believe that the president has all the power over gas prices for some reason, so why wouldn't he then try and take some type of credit for it?

[Sir Mohamed]

To me, that seems more of a hit-piece by some journalists who desperately want to make this a horserace again. It's kind of disappointing.

[wbrocks67]

To me, that seems more of a hit-piece by some journalists who desperately want to make this a horserace again. It's kind of disappointing.

I mean, it's expected from Hotline Josh though. But yeah, I think it's been a hard month or two for most pundits who desperately want this to be a horse race so they keep making sure to push the narrative of how it can still be a red wave.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would argue that we are in a horse-race election, and the media ought to be reveling in that. The biggest indicator of a neutral year is that races take on a localized, individualized, more candidate-based tone than pure party vs. party. So those elections should be more enticing to report on than when a wave election is expected and nearly predetermined, right? Trying to will the Republican wave back into existence really doesn't serve the purpose of clicks, ratings, and views as well as they might think.

[riceowl]

They mentioned this article on Bret Baier tonight, and had the text in quotes on the screen but...never mentioned the author. Just that it was an Axios piece. How very strange.....

[Mr. Smith]

I would argue that we are in a horse-race election, and the media ought to be reveling in that. The biggest indicator of a neutral year is that races take on a localized, individualized, more candidate-based tone than pure party vs. party. So those elections should be more enticing to report on than when a wave election is expected and nearly predetermined, right? Trying to will the Republican wave back into existence really doesn't serve the purpose of clicks, ratings, and views as well as they might think.

Pure party v party narratives are easier to write. The current audiences just love that All-or-Nothing approach!