Morning Consult: Democrats take the lead in enthusiasm advantage

[wbrocks67]

Democrats Take Enthusiasm Advantage: Our latest data set clocked a rarity over the past year: For the fourth time in 2022, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say they are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about the midterm elections (60% to 57%) following a decline among GOP voters over the past month.

https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

I bring this up because it's interesting how we have a divide here - most national pollsters are seeing Democrats now at least at parity or like 1-2% above or below Rs in motivation to vote.

Yet some state polling (like todays GA polls) are showing Rs still with a much higher enthusiasm gap.

I think the situation of this midterm is really scrambling polls/pollsters as it's up in the air what the turnout will be and who will turn out at what rates.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The idea that dems would not be enthusiastic is a bunch of revisionist history. The only year that democratic turnout was really abysmal was 2014 but even then I think the turnout that year was low across the board in both parties.  Democratic turnout was always going to be good this year

[MT Treasurer]

Democratic turnout being sky-high is basically a given and always was (even before Dobbs), it’s Republican and non-college-educated turnout that’s more difficult to model.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The last midterm we have where Dems were disadvantaged by the fundamentals (2016 was a self inflicted nightmare) was pre-Trump in 2014, where a no-name accountant came within 3 points of Alex Mooney.