NV-SEN (Emerson): Laxalt +1

[MT Treasurer]

11% undecideds and 4% "someone else"? Worthless poll, only confirms this is a tossup.

Not really worthless, and 4% voting other is pretty common in Nevada. The 11% undecided is probably too high though, and NV polls notoriously underestimate Dems.

My hot take of the cycle is that this will vote to the left of PA and GA.

Really looking forward to this cycle retiring this talking point once and for all. (Technically, it wasn’t even true in 2020, but I digress.)

[Unelectable Bystander]

11% undecideds and 4% "someone else"? Worthless poll, only confirms this is a tossup.

Not really worthless, and 4% voting other is pretty common in Nevada. The 11% undecided is probably too high though, and NV polls notoriously underestimate Dems.

My hot take of the cycle is that this will vote to the left of PA and GA.

Really looking forward to this cycle retiring this talking point once and for all. (Technically, it wasn’t even true in 2020, but I digress.)

It should also be noted that Nate Cohn pointed out the famous 2018 misses in Nevada could be entirely attributed to (largely Hispanic) turnout differences. This is a different situation than 2020 in many states where the reported margins with white voters were straight up incorrect for no explainable reason.

[kwabbit]

11% undecideds and 4% "someone else"? Worthless poll, only confirms this is a tossup.

Not really worthless, and 4% voting other is pretty common in Nevada. The 11% undecided is probably too high though, and NV polls notoriously underestimate Dems.

My hot take of the cycle is that this will vote to the left of PA and GA.

Really looking forward to this cycle retiring this talking point once and for all. (Technically, it wasn’t even true in 2020, but I digress.)

Nevada typically gets the least polling out of any swing state, so a high percentage of polling might be partisan R polls. If all the major pollsters did Nevada in 2020, I am sure that they would’ve botched it too, just as they did similar states like AZ and TX.

[Brittain33]

Too many undecideds to be useful, but Masto is clearly in trouble. I'm going to have a hard time calling her favored unless she can improve some of these low polling numbers.

Of course I'm nervous about Masto with education trends but every competitive Senate race in Nevada since 2010 at least has underestimated the outcome for the Democrat.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

11% undecideds and 4% "someone else"? Worthless poll, only confirms this is a tossup.

Not really worthless, and 4% voting other is pretty common in Nevada. The 11% undecided is probably too high though, and NV polls notoriously underestimate Dems.

My hot take of the cycle is that this will vote to the left of PA and GA.

Really looking forward to this cycle retiring this talking point once and for all. (Technically, it wasn’t even true in 2020, but I digress.)

Imo, If the Latino vote shifts further right there's no way NV polls will underestimate democrats.

[libertpaulian]

No other Democratic incumbent has been polling as low as Masto in terms of vote share this cycle. I think this is the battleground state which has the potential to surprise people the most, esp. if there’s a late national shift to the GOP like in 2014.

There’s also this, of course:

Gas prices across the country have slipped significantly from the summer's average high of $5 a gallon, as the issue appears to be losing some salience in political messaging.

But Nevada has seen a slower decline than most of the country, and still sports gas just below that $5 per gallon mark. [...]

The long-term increase in the price of gas is worse in Nevada than it is in the rest of the country — up 23% in The Silver State in the last 12 months compared to 17% across the country.

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/nevada-battleground-state-hit-hardest-gas-prices-rcna47293

I agree that Masto is more vulnerable than some give her credit for (and she gives off Bill Nelson vibes at times), but the first part of your post I disagree with.

There really wasn't a "late" shift to the GOP in 2014, as there were signs Dem strength was beginning to erode in August with Ferguson and ISIS dominating the headlines. The GOP had taken the lead in the RCP average around Labor Day. Throw in Obamacare hiccups and Ebola in the fall, and that was the final KO punch.