If Indiana Had a Michigan-Style Redistricting Commission...

[libertpaulian]

What would the congressional and statehouse maps look like?

[lfromnj]

The state senate map in Michigan and Indiana are the same effectively.  Both split 2 closely related cities that only are sperated by a cardinal coordinate. Both split the 2nd largest city in the state more than neccesary .

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What do we see in the State House?

[lfromnj]

What do we see in the State House?

Ruining a B tier map which just needs some small edits here and there into the disaster Indiana Democrats proposed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What do we see in the State House?

Ruining a B tier map which just needs some small edits here and there into the disaster Indiana Democrats proposed.

Did IN Dems propose 10 State House seats crossing outside of Marion County?

[lfromnj]

What do we see in the State House?

Ruining a B tier map which just needs some small edits here and there into the disaster Indiana Democrats proposed.

Did IN Dems propose 10 State House seats crossing outside of Marion County?

https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/house-democrats-alternative-redistricting-proposal-rejected-by-gop
Yes.

4 way chop of Monroe. Technically the GOP does it has well but its mostly a donut over there with 2 districts . Its a slight R gerrymander.

The GOP only deserves 1 district in Marion according to Indiana Democrats.

Again the state house map doesn't really need a commision if one cares about good maps.  The state senate map is a gerrymander though taking many of the actions the Michigan commision did to gerrymander the state senate.

My main issue with the state house map mostly has to do with excessive rural county splits. I think all the urban/suburban/college towns are done reasonably well.

[libertpaulian]

Anyone want to take a crack at it?

[Sol]

Here's an attempt at Congressional!



link

IN-01 is Likely D (53.5-44.9% Biden) and IN-05 is Tossup, maybe Lean R (50.4-47.5% Biden, but with an insanely Republican voting history.)

Would this IN-05 be the district with strongest swing to Biden in the country (42.6% for HRC)?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's an attempt at Congressional!



link

IN-01 is Likely D (53.5-44.9% Biden) and IN-05 is Tossup, maybe Lean R (50.4-47.5% Biden, but with an insanely Republican voting history.)

Would this IN-05 be the district with strongest swing to Biden in the country (42.6% for HRC)?

No a few top it, most notably the new CO-7 which had like a Biden + 14 swing or smtg crazy. This appears to be “only” a Biden swing by 9

[lfromnj]

Here's an attempt at Congressional!



link

IN-01 is Likely D (53.5-44.9% Biden) and IN-05 is Tossup, maybe Lean R (50.4-47.5% Biden, but with an insanely Republican voting history.)

Would this IN-05 be the district with strongest swing to Biden in the country (42.6% for HRC)?

I wonder if they work with composite data if they decide to make IN01 less D to make IN02 more D. I could also see a push by certain groups to draw a Lake to Lafayette district and draw a swingy Laporte to Elkhart seat. In Michigan's state house for example there are like 8 narrow Trump districtsi in Downriver/Monroe and Macomb.

[Sol]

Here's an attempt at Congressional!



link

IN-01 is Likely D (53.5-44.9% Biden) and IN-05 is Tossup, maybe Lean R (50.4-47.5% Biden, but with an insanely Republican voting history.)

Would this IN-05 be the district with strongest swing to Biden in the country (42.6% for HRC)?

I wonder if they work with composite data if they decide to make IN01 less D to make IN02 more D. I could also see a push by certain groups to draw a Lake to Lafayette district and draw a swingy Laporte to Elkhart seat. In Michigan's state house for example there are like 8 narrow Trump districtsi in Downriver/Monroe and Macomb.

Maybe, but the Dem numbers have weakened so much in NW Indiana that I'm not sure if they'd even do that on composite data. LaPorte+St. Joseph+Elkhart is still Republican on composite 2016-2020 data and there are basically no Dem areas to take from nearby except from in IN-01 which can't really spare much.

It's not really too easy to do unfortunately but I actually think some sort of finagling with Bloomington is more likely, if the commission is trying to shoot for proportionality like they did in Michigan.

[lfromnj]

Here's an attempt at Congressional!



link

IN-01 is Likely D (53.5-44.9% Biden) and IN-05 is Tossup, maybe Lean R (50.4-47.5% Biden, but with an insanely Republican voting history.)

Would this IN-05 be the district with strongest swing to Biden in the country (42.6% for HRC)?

I wonder if they work with composite data if they decide to make IN01 less D to make IN02 more D. I could also see a push by certain groups to draw a Lake to Lafayette district and draw a swingy Laporte to Elkhart seat. In Michigan's state house for example there are like 8 narrow Trump districtsi in Downriver/Monroe and Macomb.

Maybe, but the Dem numbers have weakened so much in NW Indiana that I'm not sure if they'd even do that on composite data. LaPorte+St. Joseph+Elkhart is still Republican on composite 2016-2020 data and there are basically no Dem areas to take from nearby except from in IN-01 which can't really spare much.

It's not really too easy to do unfortunately but I actually think some sort of finagling with Bloomington is more likely, if the commission is trying to shoot for proportionality like they did in Michigan.

Lake to Lafayette achieves the goal of not keeping it too weak. It's still Biden +5 while the other one is Trump +7.



Obviously the issue is that the North Hamilton district would still be R leaning on the composite. I guess your suggestion with Bloomingtin involves South Marion  to Bloomington and then a Hamilton North Marion

[libertpaulian]

I wonder what that would look like for state legislatures.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder what that would look like for state legislatures.

Long strings running out of Marion County look guaranteed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder what that would look like for state legislatures.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/92a288ec-6506-472a-9101-83b2e77467f0
Update: I've drawn a gerrymander of the Indiana state House with 51 of 100 seats voting for Joe Biden. No GOP seat even touches the Marion County line and there are 0 Republican seats in Delaware County. While I by no means think a commission would go this far, this shows how far long stringy districts can go in boosting Democrats in terms of topline results.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wonder what that would look like for state legislatures.

Long strings running out of Marion County look guaranteed.

Actually Indiana's geography penalty isn't as bad as Michigan's, plus there's not the same VRA case for doing it. A fair map would probably let Dems break the GOP's supermajority.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder what that would look like for state legislatures.

Long strings running out of Marion County look guaranteed.

Actually Indiana's geography penalty isn't as bad as Michigan's, plus there's not the same VRA case for doing it. A fair map would probably let Dems break the GOP's supermajority.

I haven't toyed with IN House maps enough to be sure either way. But it's not too surprising to me if this is the case.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I also think they'd do nested districts given the State Senate is 50 and the statehouse is 100.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I also think they'd do nested districts given the State Senate is 50 and the statehouse is 100.

Does Indiana nest their legislative districts? I had not given thought to that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The following states do nesting per Ballotpedia:
AK, AZ, ID, IL, IA, MD, MN, MT, NV, NH, NJ, ND, OH, OR, SD, WA, WI, WY.
Indiana is absent from that list.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0f270d60-d808-4c91-ab68-44cb1c6eac58

Proposed State Senate map.

36 Trump - 14 Biden
38 Trump - 12 Clinton
34 Holcomb - 16 Gregg
31 Braun - 19 Donnelly

[libertpaulian]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0f270d60-d808-4c91-ab68-44cb1c6eac58

Proposed State Senate map.

36 Trump - 14 Biden
38 Trump - 12 Clinton
34 Holcomb - 16 Gregg
31 Braun - 19 Donnelly

That's awesome.