Is Marc Molinaro the new Christy Smith?

[Sestak]

As we all know, Marcus Molinaro has just suffered an embarassing loss in what was by all accounts a slam dunk GOP pickup. Not only that, but he is set to run again in just a few months in an even less red district, setting up massive potential for him to lose again, just as Christy Smith did two years ago. Like Smith, Molinaro lost despite a district that had trended hard in his party's favor over the last decade, and a supposedly positive national environment for his party.

Is Molinaro destined to become the next Smith; a symbol of his party's obsintate sticking of their heads in the sand as they continue to throw the same failed candidate at the district again while insisting that 'trends' and 'national environment' guarantee that they'll win this time?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

He's running in a different district to Ryan which is much redder.

[ProgressiveModerate]

He's running in a different district to Ryan which is much redder.

In November, his district will be about 3 points redder than Ryans, however, it'll be bluer than the current iteration of NY-19 which he jsut lost. it's also worth noting the new NY-19 sheds all of Dutchess County where he ovreperformed in this special election and instead gains Ithaca which is well..

[DrScholl]

It was never a slam dunk and that's probably what contributed to him losing, excessive overconfidence of a red wave.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

He's running in a different district to Ryan which is much redder.

In November, his district will be about 3 points redder than Ryans, however, it'll be bluer than the current iteration of NY-19 which he jsut lost. it's also worth noting the new NY-19 sheds all of Dutchess County where he ovreperformed in this special election and instead gains Ithaca which is well..

I still think he'll win in November, possibly by a decent amount. Delgado's opponent lost by much more than Molinaro and got 40000 more votes than him. If I'm wrong about November I'll happily eat crow and you guys have full permission to make fun of me but you can't convince me Biden has double digit negative favorability and we aren't losing the house and senate.

[GALeftist]

He's running in a different district to Ryan which is much redder.

In November, his district will be about 3 points redder than Ryans, however, it'll be bluer than the current iteration of NY-19 which he jsut lost. it's also worth noting the new NY-19 sheds all of Dutchess County where he ovreperformed in this special election and instead gains Ithaca which is well..

Doesn't matter. He'll still win by a healthy amount. Turnout was crud because it was a special folks. I mean, if I'm wrong about November I'll happily eat crow but you can't tell me Biden has double digit negative favorability and we aren't losing the house and senate.

Biden+8.5 isn't an easy lift, even for Molinaro, even if it is a wave.

EDIT: Oh wait Molinaro carpetbagged to NY-19 lol. What a bozo. Anyway, that has none of Dutchess and it's Biden+4.7. Tilt D maybe.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

He's running in a different district to Ryan which is much redder.

In November, his district will be about 3 points redder than Ryans, however, it'll be bluer than the current iteration of NY-19 which he jsut lost. it's also worth noting the new NY-19 sheds all of Dutchess County where he ovreperformed in this special election and instead gains Ithaca which is well..

Doesn't matter. He'll still win by a healthy amount. Turnout was crud because it was a special folks. I mean, if I'm wrong about November I'll happily eat crow but you can't tell me Biden has double digit negative favorability and we aren't losing the house and senate.

Biden+8.5 isn't an easy lift, even for Molinaro, even if it is a wave.

Is it really Biden +8.5? I thought that was the one Ryan is running in

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

As we all know, Marcus Molinaro has just suffered an embarassing loss in what was by all accounts a slam dunk GOP pickup. Not only that, but he is set to run again in just a few months in an even less red district, setting up massive potential for him to lose again, just as Christy Smith did two years ago. Like Smith, Molinaro lost despite a district that had trended hard in his party's favor over the last decade, and a supposedly positive national environment for his party.

Is Molinaro destined to become the next Smith; a symbol of his party's obsintate sticking of their heads in the sand as they continue to throw the same failed candidate at the district again while insisting that 'trends' and 'national environment' guarantee that they'll win this time?

this post will age like milk when ELECTORAL TITAN CHRISTY SMITH TOTALLY DEMOLISHES BALD FASCIST MIKE GARCIA!!!!!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ironically Smith could very well win this year...finally.

[kwabbit]

Ironically Smith could very well win this year...finally.

Have to imagine she's favored now. A generic D vs. R would be D+15 at the moment. Garcia's brand isn't strong enough to save him under this environment, even if it might've been pre-Dobbs.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Molinaro won't necessarily be the new Smith. After all, Smith has an obvious path to Congress in November! Unlike him...

[Tekken_Guy]

Ironically Smith could very well win this year...finally.

Have to imagine she's favored now. A generic D vs. R would be D+15 at the moment. Garcia's brand isn't strong enough to save him under this environment, even if it might've been pre-Dobbs.

Garcia has strong crossover support though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ironically Smith could very well win this year...finally.

Have to imagine she's favored now. A generic D vs. R would be D+15 at the moment. Garcia's brand isn't strong enough to save him under this environment, even if it might've been pre-Dobbs.

Garcia has strong crossover support though.

His main challenge is his district got several points bluer and picked up some very polarized precincts. If all the dynamics were the same as 2020 but the new district lines were in use he prolly would’ve lost by ~ 4. He’ll solidly over-perform partisanship, no question, but his new district is Biden + 12.5. If the national environment only sees a 2 or 3 point shift right from 2020 he’s in trouble.

[Xing]

No, because NY-19 isn’t a strongly Republican-leaning district.

[Spectator]

Ironically Smith could very well win this year...finally.

Have to imagine she's favored now. A generic D vs. R would be D+15 at the moment. Garcia's brand isn't strong enough to save him under this environment, even if it might've been pre-Dobbs.

Garcia has strong crossover support though.

His main challenge is his district got several points bluer and picked up some very polarized precincts. If all the dynamics were the same as 2020 but the new district lines were in use he prolly would’ve lost by ~ 4. He’ll solidly over-perform partisanship, no question, but his new district is Biden + 12.5. If the national environment only sees a 2 or 3 point shift right from 2020 he’s in trouble.

Garcia’s toast now post-Dobbs. A competent challenger would probably whop him by double digits after his election denying stunts, but Smith is a joke.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ironically Smith could very well win this year...finally.

Have to imagine she's favored now. A generic D vs. R would be D+15 at the moment. Garcia's brand isn't strong enough to save him under this environment, even if it might've been pre-Dobbs.

Garcia has strong crossover support though.

His main challenge is his district got several points bluer and picked up some very polarized precincts. If all the dynamics were the same as 2020 but the new district lines were in use he prolly would’ve lost by ~ 4. He’ll solidly over-perform partisanship, no question, but his new district is Biden + 12.5. If the national environment only sees a 2 or 3 point shift right from 2020 he’s in trouble.

Garcia's relatively right wing voting record is also more obvious now. The only reason Garcia might still have a chance is if Smith chokes for the third time. Hopefully she's learned by now!