Chances R's win Senate race in Wisc & NV.. yet lose in UT & IA ?

[SCNCmod]

McMullin (UT) & esp Franken (IA) seem to be gaining steam.
Mike Lee & Chuck Grassley seem to be losing steam at the same time that most R's have been gaining ground- which makes me think both states could really end up being upsets.

I would not be surprised to see an unexpected result scenario like the hypo above.

Anyone sensing real upset potential in iA or UT?

[MT Treasurer]

no

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

no

FRANKEN, Ryan, Barnes, Fetterman, Beasley and Barnes can all win guess what blk vote 5)/6 percent in Milwaukee, Cleveland, Charlotte  and Philly, Philly Eagles and Phillies might win the titles with Kelce and Nola brothers

DEMINGS maynot win because DeSantis and Abbott are gonna win by 8 but she can run against Scott whom isn't Latino in 24

How do you think Sherrod Brown won 40% of white vote and 10% of blk vite

How do you think Hagen won 40% of white vote 10 percent of blk vote over Liddy Dole, Bill Nelson 40% of white vote 10% of blk vote over Katherine Harris, it goes on and on

[Arizona Iced Tea]

One question for Mike Lee is why is he running away from Trump in Utah? Sure, Trump was a bad fit for the state but he still won the state by 21%, and a clear majority of Utahns likely support him. Right now he is begging for Romney's support when instead he should be barnstorming the state with Trump.

[Ferguson97]

One question for Mike Lee is why is he running away from Trump in Utah? Sure, Trump was a bad fit for the state but he still won the state by 21%, and a clear majority of Utahns likely support him. Right now he is begging for Romney's support when instead he should be barnstorming the state with Trump.

I disagree. All of the Utah Republicans who love Trump are already voting for Lee. He needs to stop the bleeding among the anti-Trump Republicans.

[Hope For A New Era]

Disregarding contingencies (WI+NV):

Utah upset chance: 10%
Iowa upset chance: <1%

[It’s so Joever]

I demand this timeline for the shock value.

[MT Treasurer]

Since the Selzer/DMR poll created a lot of buzz around here, it’s worth noting that Selzer's early October poll in 2016 also found a somewhat closer-than-expected race — they got Patty Judge's final % right, but that’s about it:

53% Grassley
36% Judge

Final result: 60% Grassley, 36% Judge

This year, their October poll showed

46% Grassley
43% Franken

Seems plausible that Franken's actual vote share will end up close to 43%, but - again - that’s about it.

Expect a much wider Grassley lead in their final poll, like in November 2016 (56-33). Still expecting Grassley to win by double digits, of course.

As for UT, the only polls where McMullin has even broken 40% are his own internals, which tells you everything you need to know.

[Zenobiyl]

Its over

[Schiff for Senate]

One question for Mike Lee is why is he running away from Trump in Utah? Sure, Trump was a bad fit for the state but he still won the state by 21%, and a clear majority of Utahns likely support him. Right now he is begging for Romney's support when instead he should be barnstorming the state with Trump.

I do agree. He wins either way, but he may be better off actually doubling-down as a Trumpist, or at least not distancing himself from him...this isn't VA or a Biden state. It's a state that, as you said, Trump won by a solid margin of over 20 points. Yes, Romney did way better in UT in 2012 - but need I explain why Romney 2012 >>>> Romney 2022? He doesn't by any means need to distance himself from Trump. Unless he legitimately wants to, unless he legitimately isn't Trumpy and doesn't want to be too closely aligned to Trump or whatever (which ALSO works).

[SCNCmod]

Disregarding contingencies (WI+NV):

Utah upset chance: 10%
Iowa upset chance: <1%

I was thinking that is seems like:
Iowa: 25%
Utah: 10%

There seems like Franken has begun to gain momentum the last couple of weeks.  And this is the 1st election that Grassley has an underwater approval rating - not to mention he would be 95/96 at the end of the term.  And Iowa likely has enough muscle memory from late surges in Presidential primary caucuses- that make it a state most capable of late surge wins.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't seen any Ds internals from Center Street Pac so obviously the wave seats are probably gone except for OH, UT and WI and PA but NC should be interesting

But, since that number in GA and Beto is only down by 3 I am still optimistic

As I said Atlas users think too small on Senate races no way that compiled map should be like that CCM and Barnes and Sisolak and Evers losing lol no it's a 303 map.

How many polls have come out showing Evers ahead of Michels and users still have wI GOV Lean R

Users forgot we overperforning polls in AK and NY 19 and Rs only win VA by 2 that's not a red wave

[Hope For A New Era]

Disregarding contingencies (WI+NV):

Utah upset chance: 10%
Iowa upset chance: <1%

I was thinking that is seems like:
Iowa: 25%
Utah: 10%

There seems like Franken has begun to gain momentum the last couple of weeks.  And this is the 1st election that Grassley has an underwater approval rating - not to mention he would be 95/96 at the end of the term.  And Iowa likely has enough muscle memory from late surges in Presidential primary caucuses- that make it a state most capable of late surge wins.

Frankenmentum or no Frankenmentum, it's Iowa. It took 2018's major blue wave for a non-incumbent D to win statewide. A non-incumbent D, as in one. Because Rob Sand is the only non-incumbent D who has won in Iowa since 2008, or since 2006 if you exclude Presidential elections.

Utah, meanwhile, has revealed itself to be an increasingly politically chaotic and volatile state. Mormons have become very dealigned since 2016 - the year in which so many of them voted third-party that the Republican candidate failed to reach 50%.

So we have a strongly R-trending state and a rapidly dealigning state. In which one would an upset be more likely? Be sure to take into account that the potential-upsetter in the dealigning state is running as an Independent and is one of the dealigned himself.

[Dani Rose]

The fact that this is even being discussed proves we've slipped into the Feywild.

[bagelman]

538 places said odds at 0.0616% (multiplied all relevant percentages together), but it's probably even lower than that, because if Democrats score upsets in UT and IA they are probably overpreforming again in NV and should be favored for an upset in WI.

Here's the Atlas map:

[S019]

0% (sane)

[SCNCmod]

I prob should have isolated it to:

Chances R's win Wisc... but lose Iowa? 

[DS0816]

…

Anyone sensing real upset potential in iA or UT?

No.

[Ljube]

zero

[MT Treasurer]

I prob should have isolated it to:

Chances R's win Wisc... but lose Iowa? 

no