Who wins the Michigan State Senate?

[ProgressiveModerate]

The GOP has had an iron grip on the chamber for several decades now due to a combination of gerrymandering, Dem self-packing, and local politics in several key seats.

All 38 seats are up for election, and Republicans currently hold a 22-16 majority. However, the new commission map is quite favorable to Democrats. Biden won 21 districts, and the median seat is virtually in line with the state topline for all recent elections.

And finally, it seems like Dems have been successful in solid recruits + fundraising in many key districts while the MI-GOP has been having some trouble

If Dems flip the chamber, it'd be pretty huge because it'd be the first time they would have control in decades, and would set them up for a potential trifecta in 2024 (there's an outside chance they could win it in 2022)

[Mr.Phips]

Dems still likely fall short here this year.

[Schiff for Senate]

Dems still likely fall short here this year.

Agreed. It could most probably flip in 2026 if 2026 is a GOP midterm, though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It seems like ya'll are just kinda blindly assuming Rs will hold it since they've historically dominated but the State Senate map is very much in line with the state in a way it wasn't before; Whitmer will likely win a majority of districts herself.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing I will say I'm a tad dissapointed about is McMorrow who I think is a great politician with a lot of potential chose to run in ultra-safe SD-08 which is also intended by VRA lawyers to elect a black D. She was just being genuine to her community but I would've preferred she ran in a whiter seat, possibly making SD-09 a more realistic flip.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

One thing I will say I'm a tad dissapointed about is McMorrow who I think is a great politician with a lot of potential chose to run in ultra-safe SD-08 which is also intended by VRA lawyers to elect a black D. She was just being genuine to her community but I would've preferred she ran in a whiter seat, possibly making SD-09 a more realistic flip.

Eh if they elect her.