Kyle Kondik/Sabato: Reassessing the Race for the Senate

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t usually share articles from political pundits, but this is a pretty solid piece about where things stand in the Senate (and Sabato remains one of the best in the business).

Their current ratings -

Likely R - FL, OH, UT
Lean R - NC, WI
Toss-up - AZ, GA, NV, PA
Lean D - NH
Likely D - WA

Everything else is rated Safe (MO was moved out of Likely R after Schmitt won the primary). UT being Likely R and more winnable for Democrats than AK is my biggest disagreement, personally. I’d also put WA/IL in the same category (either Likely or Safe D).

Some takeaways from the article -

The smart bet in recent cycles has been on the power of political gravity, which continues to point to the Republicans at the end of the day.

At the same time, we were more confident about the Republicans flipping the Senate earlier this summer than we are now (even as we had our reservations back then, too).

The preponderance of Republican Senate candidates without formal elected experience in 2022 is striking compared to the slate of candidates the party nominated in 2014, the last time Republicans flipped the Senate from blue to red.

Our general feeling is that Cortez Masto [of NV] is the most vulnerable, marginally more so than the others. The reason is that Nevada is a bit more of a working-class state than Arizona or Georgia, lacking the volume of growing, highly-educated suburbs that have been trending Democratic over time. Democrats are very reliant on Latino voters in Nevada, too, and there are some indications that Democrats are losing ground with that group — although, it must always be stressed, Latino voters are not monolithic.

For now, the focus [in PA] is on Oz and on whether he can improve his standing; Republicans hope they can eventually turn the spotlight back to Fetterman and what they believe are some potent issues they can exploit, like Fetterman’s past positions on fracking. While Fetterman has an edge currently, it’s not enough of one to make him a clear favorite in our ratings.

We typically do not think candidate debates make that much of a difference, but the combination of the low experience level of the GOP candidates and the unpopularity of their stridently anti-abortion positioning could lead to some legitimately important moments on the road to November.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-state-of-the-battle-for-the-senate/

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Why is Florida still at likely? I just don't see how Rubio loses at all especially after 2018. It would take a blue wave (stronger than 2018) to beat him and thats off the table.

[wesmoorenerd]

Why is Florida still at likely? I just don't see how Rubio loses at all especially after 2018. It would take a blue wave (stronger than 2018) to beat him and thats off the table.

That's kind of the point of the Likely column. It demonstrates far more confidence than Lean.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why is Florida still at likely? I just don't see how Rubio loses at all especially after 2018. It would take a blue wave (stronger than 2018) to beat him and thats off the table.

These pundits tend to be pretty leniant on "likely" races far out and you begin to see a lot move to the safe column as the election approaches.

[David Hume]

Why is Florida still at likely? I just don't see how Rubio loses at all especially after 2018. It would take a blue wave (stronger than 2018) to beat him and thats off the table.

I guess for them, a mega blue wave may still be possible, in unlikely situations like Trump announcing running before midterm and did something terrible etc. But for truly safe state like OK, almost nothing can stop R candidate from winning, unless he has scandals way more serious than Roy Moore, which is completely unforeseeable.

[Xing]

The only race they’ve rated “likely” that isn’t safe is CO, IMO, and NC should definitely be moved to Likely R at this point.

[Brittain33]

You need Likely to distinguish between races like FL and OH and states where Democrats have literally a 0% chance of winning even in a blue tsunami like ID, ND, KY.

[coloradocowboi]

The only race they’ve rated “likely” that isn’t safe is CO, IMO, and NC should definitely be moved to Likely R at this point.

CO is way safer than OH

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The should really be moving PA, WI, and OH each one category to the left.   It’s not just because of the polls in these races, but also the substantially shifting national environment, and disparities in candidate quality that Republicans don’t seem to have a clear plan to recover from.

[Progressive Pessimist]

More or less, I agree. But Washington should be safe D, I mean come on!

[Coldstream]

You need Likely to distinguish between races like FL and OH and states where Democrats have literally a 0% chance of winning even in a blue tsunami like ID, ND, KY.

Yeah Rand Paul could kill someone and still win re-election, Rubio probably couldn’t..

[windjammer]

I don’t usually share articles from political pundits, but this is a pretty solid piece about where things stand in the Senate (and Sabato remains one of the best in the business).

Their current ratings -

Likely R - FL, OH, UT
Lean R - NC, WI
Toss-up - AZ, GA, NV, PA
Lean D - NH
Likely D - WA

Everything else is rated Safe (MO was moved out of Likely R after Schmitt won the primary). UT being Likely R and more winnable for Democrats than AK is my biggest disagreement, personally. I’d also put WA/IL in the same category (either Likely or Safe D).

Some takeaways from the article -

The smart bet in recent cycles has been on the power of political gravity, which continues to point to the Republicans at the end of the day.

At the same time, we were more confident about the Republicans flipping the Senate earlier this summer than we are now (even as we had our reservations back then, too).

The preponderance of Republican Senate candidates without formal elected experience in 2022 is striking compared to the slate of candidates the party nominated in 2014, the last time Republicans flipped the Senate from blue to red.

Our general feeling is that Cortez Masto [of NV] is the most vulnerable, marginally more so than the others. The reason is that Nevada is a bit more of a working-class state than Arizona or Georgia, lacking the volume of growing, highly-educated suburbs that have been trending Democratic over time. Democrats are very reliant on Latino voters in Nevada, too, and there are some indications that Democrats are losing ground with that group — although, it must always be stressed, Latino voters are not monolithic.

For now, the focus [in PA] is on Oz and on whether he can improve his standing; Republicans hope they can eventually turn the spotlight back to Fetterman and what they believe are some potent issues they can exploit, like Fetterman’s past positions on fracking. While Fetterman has an edge currently, it’s not enough of one to make him a clear favorite in our ratings.

We typically do not think candidate debates make that much of a difference, but the combination of the low experience level of the GOP candidates and the unpopularity of their stridently anti-abortion positioning could lead to some legitimately important moments on the road to November.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-state-of-the-battle-for-the-senate/

I fundamentally agree with you except on the Utah thing. We don't know how mormons are going to react to this independent ticket. Lee is very much favored but mormons have never been fond of trumpism and Lee is a weak incumbent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI  isn't Lean R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don’t usually share articles from political pundits, but this is a pretty solid piece about where things stand in the Senate (and Sabato remains one of the best in the business).

Their current ratings -

Likely R - FL, OH, UT
Lean R - NC, WI
Toss-up - AZ, GA, NV, PA
Lean D - NH
Likely D - WA

Everything else is rated Safe (MO was moved out of Likely R after Schmitt won the primary). UT being Likely R and more winnable for Democrats than AK is my biggest disagreement, personally. I’d also put WA/IL in the same category (either Likely or Safe D).

Some takeaways from the article -

The smart bet in recent cycles has been on the power of political gravity, which continues to point to the Republicans at the end of the day.

At the same time, we were more confident about the Republicans flipping the Senate earlier this summer than we are now (even as we had our reservations back then, too).

The preponderance of Republican Senate candidates without formal elected experience in 2022 is striking compared to the slate of candidates the party nominated in 2014, the last time Republicans flipped the Senate from blue to red.

Our general feeling is that Cortez Masto [of NV] is the most vulnerable, marginally more so than the others. The reason is that Nevada is a bit more of a working-class state than Arizona or Georgia, lacking the volume of growing, highly-educated suburbs that have been trending Democratic over time. Democrats are very reliant on Latino voters in Nevada, too, and there are some indications that Democrats are losing ground with that group — although, it must always be stressed, Latino voters are not monolithic.

For now, the focus [in PA] is on Oz and on whether he can improve his standing; Republicans hope they can eventually turn the spotlight back to Fetterman and what they believe are some potent issues they can exploit, like Fetterman’s past positions on fracking. While Fetterman has an edge currently, it’s not enough of one to make him a clear favorite in our ratings.

We typically do not think candidate debates make that much of a difference, but the combination of the low experience level of the GOP candidates and the unpopularity of their stridently anti-abortion positioning could lead to some legitimately important moments on the road to November.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-state-of-the-battle-for-the-senate/

You say that they are solid ratings it goes against your R nut map and Progressive Moderate that has 0 percent happening

[2016]

WI  isn't Lean R

WI is now Lean R while OH is now likely R with this Massive Tax Hike Bill by Manchin.

The Manchin Bill will all but sink any chance Tim Ryan has in OH or Mandela Barnes in WI!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will see in 90 days I don't make R nut maps I make wave insurance maps, I don't make exact maps these are only pre Election polls not exit polls anything can happen, we only have 90 days to find out 3 months MT Treasure and Progressive Moderate can be just as wrong as I am on our maps

These aren't real voting maps these are just mock predictions, I donate and vote those are real

[2016]

We will see in 90 days I don't make R nut maps I make wave insurance maps, I don't make exact maps these are only pre Election polls not exit polls anything can happen, we only have 90 days to find out 3 months MT Treasure and Progressive Moderate can be just as wrong as I am on our maps

These aren't real voting maps these are just mock predictions, I donate and vote those are real

Get used to it: Mandela Barnes & Tim Ryan are DONE after todays Vote in the Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yep keep tax cuts on millionaire that makes alot of sense Rs got student loan pauses just like D's and where did it come from Millionaires so if D's raise taxes again it will give voters a 10 K or 50 K student loan forgiveness if Rs get in there is gonna be back to paygo in Jan 2023 and whom makes more than 30 K a yr Rs D's make 30 K and under be sure we work blue collar jobs 0 for IDR, Rs are go. A ho to paygo

I.pay 0 on student loans because I am not middle class but Rs are middle class and will go back too 200 bucks a month or more no more paying car insurance D's ride buses


The losers on Eday will be Rs because D's pay 0 on student loans mostly Rs that pay for cars are gonna be stuck with their students loans I am in law school I hope to be there middle class but as long as I am in school 0 student loans

Where do student loans own deferment goes to millionaire that pay the bulk of taxes so even if we don't raise taxes they pay our student loans off anyway