In a state as inelastic as GA who are all these Kemp/Warnock voters?

[Cyrusman]

Georgia is one of the most inelastic states in the nation. Not many swing voters and race plays a big role in voting. I’m just surprised to see such a drastic swing in support between the governer and senate race. I would have expected things to be more in line with how the two senate races went last January where there was very little ticket splitting.

Who exactly are all these kemp/warnock voters?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The Clinton Isakson voters

[MATTROSE94]

Maybe suburban Atlanta voters who admire Brian Kemp for standing up to Donald Trump, but don’t like Herschel Walker due to his support of the “Big Lie” and anti-intellectualism in general?  Also some African American small business owners who like the fact that Brian Kemp didn’t implement COVID NPIs might match this voter description as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's likely both with go to runoffs but Warnock is likely to get to 50 before Kemp both are polling well below 50

Users think that everything is gonna end on Eday even OR Gov can take days provisions ballots


Evers, Beshear,. Warnock and Ossoff all won on Provisions ballots, it's likely Rs can seal up the H and D's win the S with WI and PA but GA, can decide the rest of the number of seats and OH, IA, AK, NC, FL and MO are still in play, D's are within single digits due to black and brown and we are leading in AZ, GA, WI, PA, OH anyways

But, D's are looking to keep the H

[Progressive Pessimist]

Suburbanites who detest Trump and those close to him and became endeared to Kemp (or endeared more) and Raffensperger due to them standing up to the Big Lie that permeated their state so much.

I will say, as much as I dislike Kemp, he has been really smart with becoming less of a Trump flunky. He ran as a pretty Trumpy candidate in 2018, but seems to have noticed how his state is moving and may be benefiting significantly from it. He is still no moderate by any means but has that allure on the surface to the Democratic-trending suburbanites.

Sorry Stacey Abrams, you will not be the first female black Governor. Unfortunately, that will probably be Winsome Sears, and Democrats will never hear the end of it from the GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Suburbanites who detest Trump and those close to him and became endeared to Kemp (or endeared more) and Raffensperger due to them standing up to the Big Lie that permeated their state so much.

I will say, as much as I dislike Kemp, he has been really smart with becoming less of a Trump flunky. He ran as a pretty Trumpy candidate in 2018, but seems to have noticed how his state is moving and may be benefiting significantly from it. He is still no moderate by any means but has that allure on the surface to the Democratic-trending suburbanites.

Sorry Stacey Abrams, you will not be the first female black Governor. Unfortunately, that will probably be Winsome Sears, and Democrats will never hear the end of it from the GOP.

Kemp is polling under 50 it's a Runoff if Warnock or Kemp don't get to 50 and Warnock and Ossoff didn't win straight up they won on Provisions ballots in the runoff we were losing

[Horus]

Mostly middle to upper class whites in the northern burbs.

[Koharu]

People who don't think women should be in leadership. It's definitely a contributing factor.

[ProgressiveModerate]

People who live in the old GA-06.

[Ferguson97]

I don't think it's that weird, it's just moderate Republicans who think that Walker is a nutjob

[Xing]

Democrats who automatically worship any Republican that appears even slightly anti-Trump.

[coloradocowboi]

Sorry Stacey Abrams, you will not be the first female black Governor. Unfortunately, that will probably be Winsome Sears, and Democrats will never hear the end of it from the GOP.

This is some rly weird fanfic

[Schiff for Senate]

The Clinton Isakson voters

Maybe suburban Atlanta voters who admire Brian Kemp for standing up to Donald Trump, but don’t like Herschel Walker due to his support of the “Big Lie” and anti-intellectualism in general?

Suburbanites who detest Trump and those close to him and became endeared to Kemp (or endeared more) and Raffensperger due to them standing up to the Big Lie that permeated their state so much.

I will say, as much as I dislike Kemp, he has been really smart with becoming less of a Trump flunky. He ran as a pretty Trumpy candidate in 2018, but seems to have noticed how his state is moving and may be benefiting significantly from it. He is still no moderate by any means but has that allure on the surface to the Democratic-trending suburbanites.

Sorry Stacey Abrams, you will not be the first female black Governor.

Mostly middle to upper class whites in the northern burbs.

People who live in the old GA-06.

I don't think it's that weird, it's just moderate Republicans who think that Walker is a nutjob

Agreed with all of these posts.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Sorry Stacey Abrams, you will not be the first female black Governor. Unfortunately, that will probably be Winsome Sears, and Democrats will never hear the end of it from the GOP.

This is some rly weird fanfic

Well there are still some ifs. But if there is a Democrat in the White House and she wins the nomination in Virginia in 2025-she will be Governor. And it just seems apt in our terrible timeline.

Of course, in my state Sheila Oliver could potentially be our Governor, but only if a Republican is in the White House.

So one of these two states in 2025 may actually yield the first black female Governor.

I can say with some certainty though that things don't look great for Abrams regardless of all that.

[omar04]

People who think Abrams should have conceded back in 2018?

[Nutmeg]

People who think Abrams should have conceded back in 2018?

This is my GA-06-dwelling parents' single issue. They even volunteered for Dems who ran against Newt Gingrich in the 1990s and failed to crack 30% of the vote, and yet for some reason they are incensed by this. They plan to vote for Kemp and Warnock and still haven't taken down their Ossoff sign to troll their Republican neighbors. I keep pleading with them to support Abrams, but I don't think it will happen.

[Progressive Pessimist]

People who think Abrams should have conceded back in 2018?

This is my GA-06-dwelling parents' single issue. They even volunteered for Dems who ran against Newt Gingrich in the 1990s and failed to crack 30% of the vote, and yet for some reason they are incensed by this. They plan to vote for Kemp and Warnock and still haven't taken down their Ossoff sign to troll their Republican neighbors. I keep pleading with them to support Abrams, but I don't think it will happen.

Not trying to castigate your parents here, but that's kind of petty. I can see it though.

I suppose things are stable enough economically in the state, coupled with Kemp's Trumpian bravado diminishing, that likely factors into it as well. If Kemp was completely despised I don't think something like Abrams dragging out her 2018 concession would be as much of a factor.

[NewYorkExpress]

People in Georgia who aren't football fans? (such people must exist, even in Southern states, right?)

[Smash255]

Generally Republican leaning voters in suburban Atlanta that were turned off a bit by Trump and think Walker is a nut job.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

The more a precinct trended D in the 2020 presidential race, the higher there will be a concentration of Kemp-Warnock voters - especially if that precinct is majority white. So northern Fulton, east Cobb, Forsyth, etc. Some parts of Gwinnett too.

[MT Treasurer]

Nebulous terms like 'elasticity/inelasticity' or 'polarization' really have no place in any serious analysis and are mostly designed to lend credence to one's very arbitrary/preconceived opinions about a particular state, county, the nation at large, etc. (case in point: people continually understating the partisanship of NH and IA because of their supposed "elasticity" and underestimating the extent of the Sun Belt shifts to Democrats or Democratic strength in local races such as LA-GOV 2015 due to that region's supposed "inelasticity").

If you watch election night coverage from 2004, 2006, 2008, etc. you’ll always hear pundits talking about "record polarization." It’s largely meaningless — any county/state/nation can be just as "polarized" or "(in)elastic" as you want them to be!

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Nebulous terms like 'elasticity/inelasticity' or 'polarization' really have no place in any serious analysis and are mostly designed to lend credence to one's very arbitrary/preconceived opinions about a particular state, county, the nation at large, etc. (case in point: people continually understating the partisanship of NH and IA because of their supposed "elasticity" and underestimating the extent of the Sun Belt shifts to Democrats or Democratic strength in local races such as LA-GOV 2015 due to that region's supposed "inelasticity").

If you watch election night coverage from 2004, 2006, 2008, etc. you’ll always hear pundits talking about "record polarization." It’s largely meaningless — any county/state/nation can be just as "polarized" or "(in)elastic" as you want them to be!

The rural south completely disproves your argument, at least on a federal level.